Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Is the 86% Obama Stock Market Rally the Real Deal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
At first glance, there can be no doubt that U.S. President Barack Obama has been good for the stock market.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has rallied by nearly 700 points - just shy of 86% - since the president's first Inauguration on Jan. 20, 2009.
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Monday, January 28, 2013
Stock Market Rally Continues to Frustrate the Bears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the severe correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
Intermediate trend - It is unclear if, by rising to a new bull market high, SPX has started a new intermediate uptrend or still needs to complete its intermediate correction.
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Sunday, January 27, 2013
Stock Market Still Waiting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: WavePatternTraders
From last week's report, the markets have not done much, other that chop and around, although they did move a little bit higher. My main wave count is still applicable at this time; I don't see anything at this time to concern me, although should the markets go on a tear to the upside I will obviously have to consider my options, but as it stands I still like the idea of a potential reversal setting up.
Is it time to put on the bear suits? Currently the answer is still a no, although the potential is there, the trend is still up and must be respected until we see a breakdown.
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Sunday, January 27, 2013
World Stock Markets Rally Moderates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: The world rally continued this past week, but the momentum has eased. The eight indexes in our focus group posted an average gain of 0.64% for the week, about half the 1.25% gain from the previous weekly close. The global rotation changed conspicuously, with the four Asia-Pacific indexes occupying the top four slots, a complete reversal from what we saw last weekend. China’s Shanghai Composite, the top weekly gainer last Friday, dropped to last place this week.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stocks New Bull Market High's Leaves Bears Foaming at the Mouth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has so far put in a spectacular bull run for January 2013, which has surprised both bulls and bears as all of the major stock market indices set new bull market highs, including the index which I track and trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages which is now within touching distance of 14,000.
Meanwhile delusional bears right across the globe can literally be seen foaming at the mouths as illustrated by the diatribe that continues spew out of commentary of an always imminent bear market, crash, collapse etc... When the reality is as the following charts illustrate that not only have they and everyone who listened to them missed out on what is a stocks bull market that is approaching the END of its FOURTH YEAR ! But that have actively been betting against an exceptionally strong recent bull run that is the exact mirror image of the crash that they have been so furiously proclaiming as always being imminent.
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Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock, Gold Miners and Commodities are Nearing Major Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In recent weeks we've written about the decoupling or negative correlation between the equity market and mining equities. As the miners take a hard turn lower and the S&P 500 continues higher, this current trend is all the more obvious. At the same time, commodity prices have been in a cyclical bear and have struggled to gain traction. Our forecast for 2013 is for these cyclical trends to shift. It won't happen instantly but it will slowly evolve in the coming months and quarters. Today, we see that the equity market is ever more closer to that cyclical top, miners are about to retest a major bottom and hard assets have a new catalyst.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock Market Cycle Top Resistance, The Crash Starts Here / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is at its Cycle Top resistance at all degrees of trend. You can see the upper trading band coming down in a “squeeze.” This is often a signal of a top. SPX is still within the parameters of the Fibonacci study that I had done on Monday. The market is simply extracting the money out of the most investors that it can.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock Market’s History of Seasonality Continues! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
Once again the stock market’s favorable season is producing an impressive rally. The Dow has gained more than 10% since its November low, with the rally accelerating in the new year, a 7% gain in just the last 4 weeks.
There are certainly reasons for optimism and the market rally.
As it has for the last three years, the economic recovery has resumed impressively after its summer stumble. Most U.S. economic reports, in housing, employment, retail sales, manufacturing, are beating even optimistic forecasts. The euro-zone debt crisis has moved out of the headlines, ECB president Draghi’s promise of “whatever it takes” having successfully kicked the crisis down the road. In Asia, fears that China’s economy was slowing into a hard landing have been alleviated by several months of much better than expected economic reports.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock and Commodity Market Price Consequences of Competing 2013 MegaForces / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: DeepCaster_LLC
The Market Price of virtually any Asset is arguably primarily a result of Competing Forces.
But 2013 is Unique in that there are Especially Strong Forces impelling many markets up. And there are especially Strong Forces impelling markets Down, Catastrophically Down.
So we evaluate the prospective results of this “ Force Competition” and Forecast accordingly as follows:
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Friday, January 25, 2013
Stock Market High Complacency, The Bear Will Decimate Your Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets have been surging in one heck of a January rally. The combination of the fiscal-cliff tax deal and generally solid Q4 earnings have propelled stocks to their best levels in 5 years. But these gains have been accompanied by stellar complacency. Traders are extremely bullish, convincing themselves this rally is only beginning. But high complacency near major highs really means serious downside risk.
As of the middle of this week, the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) was up 4.8% month-to-date. Over half these gains came on January’s opening trading day, on great relief that Obama’s record tax hikes were averted for most Americans. The SPX then kept on marching higher on decent Q4 earnings, hitting 8 new cyclical-bull highs in just 13 trading days! It’s on track for its best January performance since 1997.
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Friday, January 25, 2013
Marc Faber - Markets Will Punish Keynsian Interventionists / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Doom & Boom Report, told Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu on "In the Loop" today that "regardless of what the markets do, near-term, a correction is overdue" on the S&P.
Faber also said: "The only thing I know is one day the markets will punish the interventionists, the Keynesians and the monetary policy that the Federal Reserve and ECB has enforced because the markets will be more powerful one day. How will this look like? Will the bond market collapse or equity markets become a bubble, which would be embarrassing for the Fed's sake if the U.S. market became a gigantic bubble and at the same time the economy does not recover."
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Friday, January 25, 2013
Mixed Stock Market Day, AAPL Pulling Nasdaq Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had a very interesting, mixed day today, with the indices blue chips up slightly. The Dow was up, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq 100 was down as Apple dropped a whopping 63.51, after the earnings report, on 52 million shares. This stock is fractionally under 450.00 in afterhours trading and is pretty much a disaster. It has gone from 705 to 450 in just a couple months.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Apple APPL Stock is Leading Stock Market Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
AAPL’s nearly 65 point drop last night is not being favored with much of a dead cat bounce this morning. Part of the great unwind last night was a “long AAPL/short ES” paired trade gone sour. The momentum-chasing hedge funds couldn’t resist the concept, especially after the SPX decline going into the year-end. Unfortunately, AAPL’s momentum fizzled while the SPX went higher. The trade became a lose/lose proposition with no merit, especially after AAPL’s lackluster earnings report last night.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Is Your Stocks Portfolio Ready for What’s Going to Happen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: As corporate earnings season continues for S&P 500 companies, it is becoming quite evident that revenue growth is lacking across many sectors of the economy. However, we are continuing to see growth in corporate earnings per share.
How is this possible? One method is through share buybacks. S&P 500 corporations, which are generating very high levels of cash, are buying back shares and reducing the number outstanding, which increases the corporate earnings-per-share level.
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Thursday, January 24, 2013
Stock Market Last Believers: Government Grabs the Bag with Both Hands / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: EWI
The following is a sample from Elliott Wave International's new 40-page report, The State of the Global Markets -- 2013 Edition: The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read This Year. This article was originally published in the October 2012 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.
Read full article... Read full article...When government gets into the act of speculation, the top is usually way past having occurred. Government is the ultimate crowd, every decision being made by committee. It is always acting on the last trend, the one that is already over. (For example, the Federal government passed securities laws to prevent the 1929 crash...in 1934.) -- The Elliott Wave Theorist
Thursday, January 24, 2013
AMEX Gold Bugs Index and Stock Market Trend Forecast 2013 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: David_Petch
The daily chart of the Gold Miner's Bullish Percent Index is shown below, with the HUI denoted in green. The ratio has fallen below 28, which now has put the HUI into an extremely oversold state, which suggests a breakout move is looming. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K at 0 in 1 and 2 and beneath the %D in 3. This is the most oversold condition that gold stocks have been at since 2008...most people who have sold gold stocks are out, so when some “event” acts as a spark near a pile of dry sawdust, it explodes...in our case, to the upside. Four months of downside in the HUI after a two month relief ally of seeing 12 months of downside has built a powerful case for a huge move to the upside. When this move happens, it will be very sharp, so be prepared.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Personality and Persistent Incorrect Conclusions / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Submissions
Mark Blair writes:
‘ . . . we are all too often swayed by emotion rather than reason, and for the most part by emotion of which we ourselves are only imperfectly aware.’ Charles Rycroft, Anxiety and Neurosis
It is noteworthy that so many analysts correctly comprehend the ‘quality’ of the present socio-economic model – that its spectacular failure is baked in the cake – but (repeatedly) misapprehend the ‘quantity,’ that is, when the failure will occur. We are discouraged from recognising this particular elephant in the room (and some others); but now – almost a half a decade into the GFC – it really is time to broach the subject.
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Thursday, January 24, 2013
Stock Market Rally - When Everyone Sees…. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Doug_Wakefield
We have all been told that the objective of investors is to buy low and sell high, and that what goes up must come down. If these two platitudes make common sense to you, then what action would we expect from investors, based on the two charts below of the S&P 500 and low grade (high yield) bonds?
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Stock Market Refusing To Sell...For Now... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
The market clearly has its head down as it's trying to stay overbought for the most part. It's been overbought quite a bit lately on two, key-time frames, the daily and shorter-term sixty-minute charts. There's a bit of selling and then the market tries hard to move back up. This process can't last forever as we all know but you can't know exactly the moment when the pullback will begin in earnest. Today was somewhat of a pullback day, even though it wasn't. Let me explain. The advance-decline line wasn't very good, but had green because just a few stocks carried the work load. Not the best action for the bulls. You want to see the majority of stocks working higher when you're in a confirmed up trend. When things get more top heavy, there are fewer and fewer stocks doing the lifting. We saw that today, but it is only one day, so no time for panic on that front yet.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Stock Market Rally—Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Profit_Confidential
This is a stock market that wants to go higher, but it needs a little more certainty in the marketplace in order to do so. Corporate earnings are now rolling in, and so far, the numbers have been decent. Still, there’s no runaway growth in earnings, and even companies that beat consensus aren’t seeing the typical reaction in share price as in previous markets.