Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Financial Market Bubbles- From Euphoria to Credit Collapse Revulsion / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
What does a bubble look like and how do they end? In this week's Outside the Box, James Montier of Societe Generale in London looks at not only the psychological analysis, but also at the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual. He includes a fascinating piece from Marc Faber documenting the various quotes about how well the economy was doing from 1928-32. This makes for fun, if a little sobering, reading.
To quote from his summary: "We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us. Why would anyone listen to these people? They didn't see the disaster coming, and yet somehow they are qualified to tell us it is all alright! Perhaps I am just unduly sceptical, but this reeks of a conspiracy of optimism. The recession has barely started, let alone reached its nadir. The market moves of late have all the hallmarks of a classic sucker's rally. This isn't discounting the recovery, this is denial! Far from being behind us, the worst may well still be ahead!"
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Global Stock Markets Low Expected Towards End of June / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
On April 29, I wrote a research report called "Loaming low in June for equity markets. It is time for increased caution". This article was about the expected major market trough that develops approximately every five to six months. Now that June has arrived, what has happened to the markets? After a weak rise in the first half of May, global stock markets began selling off sharply in the second half of the month. With downward pressure continuing into early June, world financial markets have dropped approximately 7% since mid-May. And with the technical low anticipated by late June, lower numbers can be expected over the next two weeks. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Emerging Markets Mega Trend Investing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The western economies led by the United States are teetering on the brink of recession, which is expected to be followed by a prolonged period of slow growth if not something worse namely stagflation.
Meanwhile the emerging economies continue to consolidate their strong growth rates, buoyed by huge trade surpluses from strong exports of consumer goods and raw commodities enabling governments to embark on huge infrastructure building projects. These economies are increasingly feeding their domestic construction and consumption booms as the developing world continues to make the mega shift to the developed world.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Market Dow Theory Non-confirmation Confusion Signals CAUTION / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
Since July 2007 we have had an upside Dow theory non-confirmation, followed by a bearish primary trend change that was followed by a downside non-confirmation out of the January/March secondary lows. This was all then followed by a rally into the most recent secondary high points that carried the Transports to a new closing high on June 5, 2008 while the Industrials have lagged. As a result, another upside non-confirmation has been form. This can all be seen in the Dow theory chart below. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Markets Heading for Test of March Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
So far, the market has followed the decennial pattern in an election year. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in the Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17 at 1257. After a tentative uptrend to 1440, the index is now is in the process of testing its March low and expanding its base.
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Saturday, June 14, 2008
Stock Markets Putting in a Significant Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are going into a bottom that is likely to be the final low for the decline that began last July.
Short Term - Last Wednesday's low is not likely to hold. Many indicators look like the one shown below, that is, they confirmed last Wednesday's low while they did not confirm short term lows earlier this year.
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Saturday, June 14, 2008
Consumer Price Index: Official US Inflation is Running at 10% / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The May level of 216.632 (1982-84=100) was 4.2 percent higher than in May 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Stock Markets– Bear Market Rally or Bull Market UP Turn? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Since topping out in October 2007, global stock markets have been characterized by two distinct phases: a decline through January/March this year, and then a rebound until mid-May. The predominantly weak undertone of the past few weeks has naturally again raised the question of whether the strength from January/March until three weeks ago has simply been a bear market rally, or whether it in fact was a longer-term upturn in stock markets' fortunes. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Stocks Secular Bear Market New Downleg Has Begun / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
The early summer weeks of June have not been kind to the US stock markets. Across June's initial 8 trading days, the flagship S&P 500 stock index lost 4.6% of its value. This is not a trivial move for America 's biggest and best elite companies, so stock traders are starting to sweat a bit.
As usual, Wall Street is generally pretty bullish despite the recent selling. It is largely perceived as a minor pullback within a big new bull upleg, a stellar buy-the-dips opportunity. But what if this is not the case? An alternative, and far-more ominous, interpretation of this past month's weakness suggests we could really be witnessing an awakening bear .
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Mal Investments and Money Printing Equals Explosive Unpayable G7 Debt Mountains / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
The Crack up Boom series has returned due to the enormous amounts of money and credit creation required to save the G7 financial and banking systems. As I have outlined in recent letters, we are only in the second inning of a nine-inning ball game. Over 500 billion dollars will have been created out of “thin air” and it will require over a trillion to rescue the reckless bankers from their journey into the world of speculation and hedge funds in disguise. Their efforts have failed miserably and now they are paying the price of misuse of leverage. This leverage has just continued to get worse, contrary to reports about de-leveraging. Assets which used to be able to be priced as recently as last fall have now moved into the roach motels (see Tedbits Archives for August '07 at www.TraderView.com ) known as Level III assets, AKA asset value UNKNOWN. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Dow Support and Resistance Lines Update / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mick_Phoenix
In Sundays Weekly Report we looked at some charts that showed the Occasional Letter proprietary indicator in an experimental role on the hourly Dow. As this weeks targets have now been hit I thought it would be appropriate to update the charts to show you the outcome.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
NASDAQ Q's Signaling Break of 50 DMA Support / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As we speak, the Q's are pressing against their sharply rising 50 DMA (47.73), which if violated and sustained, likely will trigger additional weakness that projects prices into the 46.50 target area. HOWEVER, usually, a 4 day decline (off of the 6/05 recovery high at 50.61) will NOT be able to generate enough power to violate a sharply upward angled 50 DMA that has been gaining momentum for the past 10 weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Leadership Stocks Go Negative / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Every night, we crank our computers up as they look at every stock trading $2 or higher on every exchange.
We get a count of the Very Strong Leadership stocks and a count of the Very Weak Stocks in the Broad Market. From this data, we subtract the number of Very Weak Stocks from the number of Leadership stocks.
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
South Korean Stocks for Solid Economic Growth and Low Inflation / Stock-Markets / South Korea
By: Martin_Hutchinson
With key countries in the world economy spiraling toward recession, and even India and China panicking about domestic inflation levels, there's one country in particular that still seems to offer good value in its equities markets, thanks to an economic outlook that combines decent growth and only modest inflation.
That country is South Korea.
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
How to Profit From the Sinking US Economy and Rise of Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin D. Weiss writes: Last Monday, my mission was to bring home the vital importance of The Great Dichotomy — the unprecedented contrast between the sinking ship of the U.S. economy and the rising tide of emerging markets.
Today, my mission is to show you ways to profit from both. And as the events this past Friday clearly illustrate, the timing couldn't be more critical:
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Importance of Real US Inflation Rate in Forming Investment Decisions / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
This week in Outside the Box we look at Bill Gross's recent essay on measuring inflation. How you measure inflation makes a difference not only in social security payments but also in what your real returns on bonds are. As Bill notes, there is a significant difference in how the world measures inflation and how it is done in the US. He gives us some insights that are very thought-provoking.
In the last decade economists regularly argued the CPI over-stated inflation by 1%. Now Gross suggests that it may understate inflation by 1%. This week's OTB makes for very interesting reading. Bill Gross is managing director of PIMCO. (www.pimco.com)
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Monday, June 09, 2008
Crude Oil Comparison Illustrates Major Stock Market Weakness / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Our big picture view of the S&P 500 compared (or contrasted) to the price action of crude oil concludes that we need to get long the UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares ETF (AMEX: SDS), or short the SPY, at some point in the hours directly ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
How to Profit from the Middle East's Global Economic & Investment Expansion / Stock-Markets / Middle East
By: Martin_Hutchinson
Middle Eastern countries know their oil supplies aren't going to last forever. So they're pumping more than $2 trillion into new, long-term economic projects - such as brand new cities that will function as both business and vacation hot spots. A special report jointly developed by U.K. affiliate MoneyWeek Magazine and our experts here at Money Morning explores the next moves by these economic heavyweights, their spend-happy sovereign wealth funds and how investors can profit from them. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
US Fed Regulation of Banking System- Fox Asks For More Authority Over Hen House / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Geithner Calls for More Fed Authority to Prevent Future Crises .Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner called for greater central bank authority over banks so the financial system can better withstand shocks and recover from the credit crisis.
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Monday, June 09, 2008
Volatility Rocks The Investment Markets / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Steve_Selengut
Gets your attention, doesn't it? The unfortunate thing though, is that most people will react negatively to this intentionally inflammatory, media-ready, title statement. Has some Wall Street virus attacked our financial experience memory chip? Bouncing around unpredictably is precisely what the markets have always done. In the last forty years, there have been no less than ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the markets to significantly higher levels. Volatility is not a bad thing--- a non-event, even.Read full article... Read full article...