Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
The Long Wave (aka The K Wave) “Jubilee” Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: David_Knox_Barker
A Special Update for Market Oracle Readers
Announcing the Updated and Expanded edition of The K Wave (1995) as Jubilee on Wall Street (2009)
The long wave debate rages on. Meanwhile, the global debt berg, the chief product of crony state capitalism, has begun to block the profligate paths of listing ships of state. The confident captains of crony state capitalism are at the helm, sailing into the foggy financial abyss of cascading sovereign debt defaults. The growing black hole of sovereign debt threatens to pull the global economy into its collapsing vortex, the quintessential black swan event. Coming out the other side of the black hole of collapsing debt beyond 2012, we suspect the world will be a very different place. A new golden age will dawn.
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
Indonesian Stock Market Continues to Soar to New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Trader_Mark
While many emerging markets have stalled out in 2010 digesting huge 2009 gains, Indonesia continues to ramp in quite methodical fashion. This despite a 87% gain last year. Certainly this has been a missed opportunity as we should have pounced last May... or July... or September... or November [May 22, 2009: Indonesia: A Must Own Emerging Market] [Jul 9, 2009: Indonesia's Star Continues to Rise on Back of Yudhoyono's Re-election] I'll admit, both times the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX) broke serious support (Nov 09, Feb 10) I hesitated as I was worried about a much larger selloff. Instead, as in the US, the market just turned around and staged a V shaped turn.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
Feds Scrutinizing Derivatives in ETFs / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Ron_Rowland
Last week I told you about political risk in exchange traded funds (ETFs). Almost as if on cue, later that very day, the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it is conducting a “review” of ETFs that use derivatives.
What? Derivatives in ETFs? Yes, and it’s nothing new. In fact, the SEC made clear it is also looking into mutual funds for the same thing!
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
Stocks Are Still Down from 2008 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday we pointed out how Gold and the US’s attaining of debt saturation have rendered Bernanke and the world central bankers’ attempts to re-flate the US economy and markets meaningless. Indeed, with stocks down 80%+ (when denominated in non-paper currency) and ever new $1 in debt issuance now acting as a drag on US productivity (incomes have dropped to the point that we can no longer finance our debt) any talk of recovery or bull markets is myopic at best.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
Why You CANNOT Re-Flate an Economy or Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Graham_Summers
I constantly receive emails asking me why I’m bearish with stocks breaking to new highs. The simple answer to this question is that I’m not bearish, I’m a realist. Stocks haven’t made a cent of money in over ten years.
I know what you’re thinking, “Graham’s just pointing out that the S&P 500 is still down from its 1999 levels.”
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
Stock Market Finally Some Selling That Sticks........ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Jack_Steiman
Not a whole lot. Nothing to get excited about by any means. In fact, it looked like the early morning selling would be wasted once again. We gapped down on a poor ADP Report (ADP National Employment Report), which is a prelude to the big Friday Job’s Report. It gives us all a sliver of insight as to what we can expect when the big number gets released on early Friday morning. The market was expecting a move higher in the jobs number but instead we got a loss of 20,000 jobs. The market surely didn't love the number but it didn't exactly fall apart.
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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Stock Market Melting Up, A Different Take / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Guy_Lerner
Over at the ZeroHedge website, they have a post attributed to Michael Panzer of the Financial Armageddon website entitled: "The Latest Red Flag - The Market's Rate of Melting Up". Here is a different take.
From the Panzer article, I quote: "Based on data going back 90 years, whenever the 12-month rate of change (ROC) in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has exceeded 40 percent, it has generally signaled trouble ahead."
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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Americans Still Not Working / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PaddyPowerTrader
For the most part markets were little changed overnight with investors largely sitting tight ahead of Friday’s all-important US non-farm payrolls report. Indeed the S&P 500 closed exactly unchanged, with some strength in the industrials offset by some weakness in the financials. Stock wise 3M rallied 3.6% as Morgan Stanley said profit may top estimates after Danaher boosted its earnings forecast. Home Depot and Lowe’s climbed as the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 US cities and the Conference Board’s confidence gauge topped economists’ estimates.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Stock Market Trend Lateral Into Jobs Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Jack_Steiman
The market that just won't fall didn't again today even though it should. Should is a tough word in this bull market because what it should be doing and what it is actually doing are quite different. It should be pulling back to unwind some negative divergences on the daily chart and because the oscillators from MACD to RSI to stochastics all need to rest. It's not happening. The market is holding up now, in all likelihood, due to end of quarter buying and because few shorts want to step in front on Friday's jobs report.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
How the Dow Has Really Performed When Measured in Real Money (Gold) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: EWI
"Your cheating chart will tell on you."
Hank Williams may not have known about Elliott waves, but he did know when a story doesn't add up. Such is the case with the nominal rise of the Dow Jones Industrials from 2000 to 2007. In the language of country music, this stock index has a "Cheatin' Chart" -- it doesn't tell the real story.
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Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Stock Market Correction or Continuation? Market Will Answer Very Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Steven_Vincent
BullBear traders have been long US equities (with the exception of a brief 2 day interlude) since the February 5th bottom. We took half of our profits in anticipation of a minor wave 4 correction but we continue to hold 50% of our long positions with an eye towards a mid-late April wave 5 of 5 top to the major Wave 1.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
US Stocks Trading At 18 Month Highs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: PaddyPowerTrader
The tone across markets is again generally positive with commodities leading the market higher (copper is up 4% and oil up over 2%). This has filtered through to equity markets, with the S&P 500 managing a 0.6% gain to an 18 month high Monday. Schlumberger, Exxon Mobil and Alcoa paced gains in commodity shares as crude oil and metals prices rallied. Boeing jumped 2.1% after saying stress tests of its Dreamliner wings were “positive”.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Trading Strategies for Unpredictable Markets, Current Wave Pattern Creates Difficult and Dangerous Trading Environment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Glenn_Neely
This article is the first in my series, titled “Trading Strategies for Unpredictable Markets.” Here, I discuss the U.S. stock market’s current phase of pattern development – a strange Wave phenomenon – and how it impacts trading strategies and risk management. The U.S. stock market has entered the center of a 20-year correction, and I’ll discuss what this means to traders and investors.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Interest Rates Surge Higher on Debt Crisis, Stock Market Dow Non-Confirmation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By: Douglas_V._Gnazzo
The big news this week was the rise in interest rates, especially on the long end of the yield curve: 10 year yields were up 16 basis points to 3.85%; and 30 year rates added 17 basis points to 4.75% (see charts in the bond section). What’s behind this sudden move?
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
U.S. Stock Market Returns, What's in Store? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: John_Mauldin
It has been some time since we have looked at stock market valuations and expected future returns. I made a large point in Bull's Eye Investing that long term returns are closely correlated with the valuation of the stock market upon entry. In fact, I argue that secular bull and bear markets should be viewed in terms of valuation and not prices. The market clearly goes from high valuations to low and back to high again over very long periods of time. The average length of a secular bull or bear cycle is 17 years.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Stock Market Grinding Further..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Jack_Steiman
So much of the move lately has been a grind. Makes sense as an overbought market on the daily charts just can't keep exploding higher. Now you have a few small negative divergences showing up making the job of the bulls tougher, but definitely not stopping them from a nail to the chalkboard move higher. Day by day we inch upward in to the teeth of these problems for the bulls and it makes you wonder when this market will finally take a right to the chin it just doesn't see coming.
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Monday, March 29, 2010
Three Breakouts That Could Break the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Justice_Litle
Three “breakouts” of recent days – interest rates, the U.S. dollar and China trade tensions – give ample reason to be cautious.
Upside breakouts are normally seen as bullish. But in the past few trading days, we’ve seen a few that are anything but.
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Monday, March 29, 2010
When The Stock Market Music Stops Will You Have A Chair? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: David_Grandey
When the music stops, will you have a chair to sit on? What we mean by that is the market can't keep going up like this forever. At some point in time we will get a correction -- quite possibly a meaningful correction. And when we do, will you be prepared?
In the weekend newsletter we pointed out a lot of extended names that needed to come back down to earth. That would be in line with the 5th wave needing some work. When we said it needed work we mean that it's got 3 waves up but yet no clear 4 or 5 (SPX daily chart below).
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Monday, March 29, 2010
Economic Optimism Lifts Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: PaddyPowerTrader
For the most part equities, commodities and debt traded within a narrow range on Friday. Most of the action was in FX-land with the Euro benefiting from confirmation that the EU leaders had reached an accord to provide backstop financing to Greece if needed. According to the EU leaders, “As part of a package involving substantial IMF financing and a majority of European financing, Euro Area Member States are ready to contribute to coordinated bilateral loans… Interest rates will be non-concessional, i.e. not contain any subsidy element.” Beyond that, the details are as sketchy as ever, perhaps because most (including the Greek PM) believe that the package will not require implementation.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Critical Week for Stock Market Ahead of March U.S. Employment Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This week is going to be one of the most critical in a long time to the markets. The Government releases the employment report for March on Friday (a market holiday), expected to be the first positive data on additions to payrolls in months.