Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Stock Market Rally Expected to Continue / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Davos, Debt & Systemic Failure - When West Meets East / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The preferred diet of most Davos attendees is a fusion inspired composition of individual, government, and corporate debt combined with a free-market frisee of lax regulatory oversight held together by a roux of central bank credit that dissolves instantly when paired with matching counter-party risk.
The January 2008 gathering in Davos , Switzerland at the World Economic Forum is similar to the 1957 meeting in Palermo , Sicily of American and Sicilian Cosa Nostra crime families who met to discuss mutual problems and opportunities. The notable difference being that those in the Cosa Nostra live outside the law; while those at the World Economic Forum in Davos make them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market in the Early Stages of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: · In the past week new lows dried up on both the NYSE and OTC this implies downside risk will be limited for the next several weeks.
Short Term
Last Tuesday there were 1114 new lows on the NYSE and 877 on the NASDAQ, some of the highest numbers ever recorded. On Friday, a down day, there were 35 new lows on the NYSE and 68 on the NASDAQ. The extremely high numbers on Tuesday imply the bear market is not over while the rapid reduction of new lows implies downside risk will be limited for the next few weeks or months.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Bounce - SELL The Rallies! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
While stock investors are celebrating late last weeks surprise rally in the Dow, most bond investors are bracing themselves for a new disaster of unquantifiable dimensions.
Ground zero of the new crisis: Precisely the companies that I said would be at ground zero — collapsing bond insurers like MBIA and Ambac, along with the hundreds of thousands of bonds they cover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Plunge Protection Team Orchestrating a Stock Market Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Joseph_Russo
A Work in Progress
Well, it is blatantly obvious that the (PPT) plunge protection team, presidents working group – or whatever they call themselves - found it necessary to intervene in the free-market in attempt to orchestrate a bottom.
Where are these guys when markets are a boiling-pot of unsustainable parabolic animal spirit? We suspect during such episodes, they are patting themselves on the back for planting the seeds for such bullish orgies
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Update: The French 'Rogue Trader' Connection / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
You may recall in November and December I mentioned patterns that called for a Santa Claus rally extending into the first several months of '08. Now that we know of the colossal fraud at France 's second largest bank, I believe we probably would have seen that rally unfold if not for the liquidation of the massive Societie Generale long positions. As you know, the selling climaxed in the huge holiday selloff early this week and fostered lingering insecurity even after the emergency rate cut until we finally learned Wednesday who killed our rally: the French did it!!Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stock Market Crash - Robert Prechter on Bloomberg Youtube Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Everyone wants to know, "Is the worst over for stocks?" If you're familiar with Bob Prechter and his work, you won't be surprised that his short answer is "NO." But ... it's his long answer that is much more compelling, including insights into what you should be doing NOW to prepare for what's still to come.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Fed Duped by Rogue Trader and the Destruction of Bond Insurers / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: John_Mauldin
- What Does the Fed Really Know?
- Fed's Folly: Fooled by Flawed Futures?
- Brother, Can You Spare a Billion?
- $5 Billion a Quarter
- Planes, Trains, and Santa Barbara
- And Charlie Wilson's War
It had been my original intention to devote this week's letter to the view from Europe, as I have been here for the last week, but events have changed that goal. The Federal Reserve made a very rare inter-meeting rate cut of 75 basis points this week, after the worldwide markets were in turmoil. Many pundits suggest the Fed was responding to the worldwide collapse in stock prices. This week we examine that suggestion, and I will offer an alternative explanation. I am beginning this letter in a London subway train. Quickly, the consensus wherever I go seems to be that Europe and the United Kingdom are also headed into recession. There is a lot of interesting ground to cover, so let's get started.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Bailout Battle Raging Between US Government and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Pardon me, but am I the only one suffering a serious case of whiplash here? I mean, the financial sector developments over the past few days have been amazing ... simply amazing.
Coming into the week, the global markets were in a freefall. While U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day, stock indexes from Hong Kong to London were collapsing on fears of a bond insurance market meltdown.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
How to Survive and Prosper During the Financial Markets Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Six months ago I warned you that all hell was about to break loose in the U.S. economy. Tumbling real estate values ... tens of billions of dollars in mortgage debt at risk ... the virtually non-stop decline in the dollar ... an ongoing bull market in gold — all pointed to tough times ahead for our country.
Despite the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates by three-quarters of a point this week, the time of reckoning has arrived.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Stock Market Dominant Trend Remains Down / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In the end, investors and traders really did not want to go home long equities Friday, even after the Fed's emergency rate cut on Tuesday, which is certainly not a confidence builder. Maybe the bulls will feel a bit more confident after the weekend.
In any case, I think it is fitting for us to take a look at this week's
price range in the S&P 500 and to notice that all of the action, including
the post rate-cut rally, has transpired below the last week's critical
breakdown plateau at 1362.50.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Stock Market Investors Running With the Herd / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Roger_Conrad
Running with the herd certainly beats trying to run against it—and getting trampled in the process. But it comes with a cost: surrendering your own common sense for “group think” that often makes no real sense at all.
As I pointed out last week, the character of the Wall Street herd has changed remarkably over the past two decades. Back in the 1980s, individual investors still accounted for the majority of stock ownership. Today, trading is squarely in the hands of big institutions and those who run them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Stock Market Gloom and Doom - “Granville's Golden Rule” Versus Conventional Wisdom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
Market forecaster Joe Granville was a colorful character in what has always been perceived as a staid and conservative business. The great stock market guru of the 1970s was known for his outlandish antics and prescient market forecasts.
He would often appear at lectures wearing garish costumes, including blinking bow ties, electrified sunglasses, togas, Elvis costumes and chicken outfits. Infamously, he was known for dropping his pants and reading stock quotes to surprised observers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
The US Fed, Societe Generale Rogue Trader, William Poole, and Black Swans / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: David_Urban
On Tuesday morning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points in response to a worldwide selloff. The selloff started on mounting fears that the United States has fallen into a recession. The mass fear became so great that the Federal Reserve felt compelled to act before next week's meeting in an attempt to restore confidence in the markets. In the press release, one governor, William Poole from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis voted against a move before next week's meeting. While his actions may leave some people scratching their heads, one needs to go to the website ( http://stlouisfed.org/default.cfm ), note the commentary on the left side of the page, and read the following speech ( http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2008/a/pages/inflation.html ).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Stocks Secular Bear Market / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Zeal_LLC
Back in early October when the benchmark S&P 500 stock index was hitting all-time highs, “bear” was a heretical four-letter word. Merely letting it roll off your tongue or spill from your pen offered a fast track to pariah status. In the best of times, people tend to forget that the worst of times are even possible anymore.
But after the most brutal new-year selloff in market history, investors and speculators are far more receptive to the usually taboo topic of stock bears. Most on Wall Street consider a bear market a 20% decline from the latest interim high. This week we came pretty darned close to a 20% slide in S&P 500 (SPX) terms.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
Institutional Selling Goes Opposite to Stock Market Direction / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Every day, on our paid subscriber website, we show and rate 9 underlying fundamental conditions that are critical relative to rallies and corrections.
This morning, we will share one of them with you ... The rate and trend in Selling by Institutional Investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
The US Debt and Yen Carry Trade Unwinding Time Bomb is About to Explode! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Christopher_Laird
Synthetic Dollar Short - Richard Russell and other gold writers talked about a ‘synthetic dollar short' based on debt in 04/5. The thesis is that overly indebted entities will face a day when their loans are called in, and the demand for dollars will rise dramatically, as assets are liquidated to pay off positions/debt.
The often discussed Yen carry trade has a similar mechanism, where lots of Yen have been borrowed for the last 10 years and invested in various markets that yield more than the half percent Japanese interest rates. Big and small investors have taken advantage of this more or less free money, riding the interest rate bonus with little risk – up to now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Investors Lose Relying On Worthless Rating Agencies - Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis
By: Adrian_Ash
"The one sure way to prolong a depression is to resist it..." – Walter Lippmann, Sept. 1931
ISN'T MODERN LIFE MARVELLOUS? All risk has vanished, not least for high-risk behavior.
Hence Scott Anthony Gomez Jr., now suing the sheriff of Pueblo County in Colorado . Gomez was able to break out of his jail cell, push up a ceiling tile, and crawl to freedom through the ventilation shafts before slipping and falling 85 feet off the roof of his prison.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Global Impact of the US Debt Implosion / Stock-Markets / US Debt
By: John_Lee
We have written a series articles dating back to March 2007 tracking the US debt implosion, which are available here . The story started out in early 2007 with the blowout of Novastar and New Century, the multi-billion non-bank intermediary mortgage brokers. In summer of 2007 we witnessed the collapse of American Home Mortgage, America's largest subprime mortgage issuing bank. Then we saw a series of subprime write-offs amounting to hundreds of $ billions by banks, funds, and institutions around the world. Then the trouble moved up in the chain of the mortgage complex, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announcing surprising losses.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Corporate Income Tax - Stock Market Investors Enemy Number Two / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Steve_Selengut
The Investor's Eye view of politics is a simplistic, practical, dot-connecting approach to sorting things out so that win/win change can be considered. Real World politics is not concerned with such things, and that is one of the most serious problems facing investors today. As outlined in Investment Politics 2008, there are at least ten issues that require government action if we are to maintain our competitive position in the World Economy. Most of these are interrelated and need to be acted upon simultaneously... thus causing a major political dilemma.