Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Corporate Earnings Estimates for 2008 Defy Logic - Analysts Are Last to Embrace Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Michael_Pento
What a start for the year! The S&P 500 began with its worst initial 5 trading day performance ever, Goldman Sachs joined the chorus of those who are predicting a recession for 2008, consumer confidence sunk to a record low of 56.3 and the Markit CDX North American Investment Grade series 9 index (a measure of corporate bond default risk) climbed to 100 basis points—the widest since the index's inception four years ago.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2008
2008 Asset Class Investment Outlook Studies Point to Commodities Out performance / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Chris_Ciovacco
2008 Off To Rocky Start As we all know, asset markets do not like uncertainty. With SIVs (structured investment vehicles) and countless shaky mortgages floating through the financial system, uncertainty abounds. Since none of us know how bad things may get or how long this may last, adding some diversification to your portfolio might seem appealing. Below, is a brief look at the relative attractiveness of several asset classes based on what we know today and what we have experienced in the past. As in any environment, there is no perfect way to address the problems of the current day. However, some alternatives appear to be more attractive than others. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Casino Royale Investment Markets - The House Always Wins? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Brian_Bloom
Let there be no misunderstanding. The “investment” markets across the globe have become like casinos and, in trying to make a buck in any of these markets, you are betting against the house. If you want commodity prices in general to rise, and the gold price in particular to rise, you can be sure that the house wants these prices to fall. If you want the price of industrial equities to fall, you can be sure that the house wants them to rise. Who will pocket the most winnings in this monstrous game of roulette? Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Investment Portfolios Face Destruction as Credit Crunch Intensifies / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Doug_Wakefield
Are The Levees Starting to Break? - “I have often stopped to ponder our human condition – specifically, our uncanny ability to dismiss the seriousness of an event beforehand and to lament our lack of preparation after it has happened. How many New Orleans residents stated, in some form or fashion, that they never expected the storm to break the levees? But, it's easy to see the rational behind their unresponsiveness. They had been through countless storms since the levees were first established and nothing that dire had ever happened.” – September 2006, The Investor's Mind: Too Costly to Bear Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Utility Stocks Stll Positive Trend / Stock-Markets / US Utilities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My overall work is telling me to remain long the XLU unless it breaks below the January 4 pivot low at 41.86. It is with that in mind that I intend to ride out this pullback ahead of the emergence of a new upleg that propels the sector to new highs in the 45.50-46.00 area.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Energy and Financial Investing Themes 2008: A Tale of Two Halves - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Hans_Wagner
The beginning of a new year is a good time to make a new assessment of the important investment drivers and themes for the year. If you want to beat the market it is important to understand what is driving the markets and where the best sectors are to find good opportunities. By identifying these factors you will have a solid framework to assess the impact market movements and news events on your investment strategy. This is the first of a five part series on the outlook for the 2008 markets. The first part discussed the key drivers ending with a mention of what sectors will benefit and those that will be hurt. This Part discusses the Energy and Financial sectors. The remaining three parts will review each of the remaining sectors in more detail. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
How Do You Spell Stock Market Correction? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Steve_Selengut
During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: "How low can we go?" and/or "How long will this last?" Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher values during the next advance. Yes, Virginia, just as certainly as there is a Santa Claus, there is another market advance in our future. And despite a still much too high DJIA, we are in the seventh month of a correction. (The eighth month if you own income securities.)Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Stocks and Bond Market Forecasts for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Vacation and holidays have prevented the usual writing of the newsletter, so this will serve as the annual prognostication letter. First, the markets should start the year weak, employment will be poor and bond yields will be at their lowest in 4 years by mid-month. Oh, that has already happened…not bad predicting so far! The rest of the year won't be as easy, especially for financial markets. The persistent news revolving around credit and availability, write-offs and housing inventories should keep the markets on the defensive for much of the year. Last year we predicting a poor market – we were wrong until August. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Shadow Banking System Crumbling as Losses Double to $500 Billion / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: John_Mauldin
This week look at a short but very important piece by Bill Gross. He has my same concern about credit default swaps, but he puts a number to it. He thinks the cost to the world economic system could be in the $250 billion dollar range. Add that to the $250 billion in losses due to the subprime markets, and you are starting to talk real money. The Shadow Banking System is at the center of the problem. I trust you will find this of interest.
Bill Gross was just named Fixed Income Manager of the Year by Morningstar. He sits on the largest pile of bonds in the world at PIMCO and is their Managing Director.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Stock Markets Tumble on Nikkei 3 Year Lows and Citigroup Dividend Cut Expectations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell $6 from an overnight rally to $911 per ounce just before the London open on Tuesday, while Asian stocks fell and the US Dollar held at 7-week lows vs. the Euro and Japanese Yen.
Japan 's Nikkei fell 1 percent, finishing below 14,000 for the first time since November 2005 after Bank of Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui said Japan 's economic growth will "slow for some time."
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
The Future of Investing 2008 : National Debt, Social Security, Medicare All Point Towards More Inflation / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Chris_Ciovacco
As volatility increases in 2008, it will be important for us to continue to focus on the most important fundamental drivers of asset prices. If I had to choose only three words to describe the future of investing they would be debt and asset values. Debt and asset values have a significant impact on government policy. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Central Banks Entering Hyper Inflationary Money Supply End Game / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Captain_Hook
Central banks are now showering the economy with accelerating quantities of fiat digits like never before , which is having the effect of extending the current boom cycle even longer in spite of the natural tendency for system failure. Not too long from now however, and in spite of these efforts then, like a game of musical chairs enough participants will be expelled from the festivities in natural process, which is an eventuality that cannot be avoided no matter how much intervention is exercised. Moreover, it's the fact monetary debasement rates need be accelerated to this point that is the signal we are now in the final rounds of the game (end game dynamics), where like in musical chairs, if you are prepared and with a little luck one might be the one left standing at the end. And while this might sound fine for those prepared people, don't kid yourself, what's coming here is not going to be pleasant for anyone, as the hangover from the credit binge we have been on for some 25-years now will not pass in a day or two, meaning living standards are set to decay rapidly. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Stock Market Indicators Becoming Bullish / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for
consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which
is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an
eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Australian Stocks Attempted to Break Losing Streak / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Geoffrey_Transom
We mused on Friday if perhaps the Australian market might be able to break its losing spell this week - and it did its damnedest to do just that today, albeit after a very poor opening.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold, Bottom Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is likely to be at or near a short term bottom.
Short Term
My daily history of the S&P mid cap index (MID) begins in 1991. Including the period that ended last Tuesday there have been 3 occasions when the index has fallen for 9 consecutive days. The others were the period before and after 9/11/2001 and late August 1998. 9/11/2001 is obviously a special case, but there are numerous similarities between August 1998 and the current period including a threat to the financial system by the failure of Long Term Capital Management which, like Citibank, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide, was considered too big to fail.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Stock Market Update: Trading the Deceptive Triangle Bounce / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
I can't go publicly posting the charts members pay for, but I can say that, as an example, as the weekly update was being posted here last Saturday, TTC members, whether scalpers, swing traders or position traders, were all receiving several forward looking charts describing the big picture and laying out our plans for the days ahead. The chart below was such a one, showing the triangle that the concurrent update said “many traders see.” Well, the market rarely if ever gives the crowd what they're expecting. The chart above from the Saturday weekly forum shows our immediate expectation for a deceptive bounce that would have as many as possible trading the triangle only to reverse them down into the lower trendline.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Australian Stocks Continue Week Long Losing Streak / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Geoffrey_Transom
Crikey... seems like the Strayan market just can't get it's act together. Today marked the fifth successive session of decline for every All Ords market-cap sub-index except the ASX20 (which managed a gain yesterday), with average declines in the market-cap based subindices of 5% for the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Banks Doubling Down on Bad Debts As Merrill Lynch Writes Down $15billion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Merrill Lynch, the third largest U.S. securities firm, is expected to write down $15 billion in the fourth quarter, nearly twice as much as previously announced. Analysts had recently been expecting a $12 billion loss for the same period. Citigroup may face another $14 billion of losses, according to J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America may announce $5 billion of write-downs in collateralized debt obligations.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Stocks Bear Market - Dow Theory Proves Correct! / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
In spite of its criticisms, the Dow theory is once again proving correct. The one thing that the advance up out of the 2002 low has proven is that the single most important aspect of Dow theory is the concept of joint price confirmation above and below previous secondary high and low points. Basically, nothing else matters. In accordance with this basic concept, the primary trend first turned bullish on June 4, 2003. As the market advanced in the wake of mountains of liquidity the values did not make sense. Also, when looking at the phasing aspect of Dow theory it appeared that the rally out of the 2002 low was a giant secondary reaction and counter-trend advance. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
FIRE SALES of US Financial Assets - Fingers of Instability, Part 16 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue- 3 Fingers of Instability
- FIRE SALES!
- Nights of the Long Knives!
- Flights to Perceived Safety!
Introduction
Dear readers, I want to thank you all for a gratifying 2007, the support for Tedbits has been nothing short of phenomenal. We are now on many radar screens thanks to your interest in my work. The last month has been tumultuous and I had the mother of all colds/flu in late December and spent several weeks traveling around the globe until just before Christmas. So I rested my body and my brain and I now enter the New Year much rested and ready to rumble. I will be doing a short Tedbits this week and then do the 2008 forecast over a 2 to 4-week timeframe. There's a lot to cover in the forecast as the headlines are quite hysterical. The choir out of Wall Street is predictable BULL****! The big picture is very clear as I will illustrate to you in the 2008 forecast.