Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Warning: The Stock Market Bounce Was a Head Fake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.

That reset will crash stocks.

We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Gold and Dow Jones Big Profits from Big Channels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

Big profits come from big swings within the long term channels. Here are the big channels for gold (GLD) and Dow Jones (INDU). Readtheticker has price data for 100+ years for the important securities.  The red arrows are points of interest. Gold holds support, demand present.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary focus of my in-depth analysis for January will continue to be on the UK housing market and I will seek to forecast the prospects for the US housing market for at least 2019, seeking to replicate the accuracy of my last US housing market 3 year trend forecast https://youtu.be/82ncGGgbhAk.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we near the end of 2018 and have recently witnessed an incredible price rotation in the US stock market, it is time for traders to take stock of the incredible opportunities that are set up for early 2019 and beyond. Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, has put together some truly incredible longer-term Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system charts that will help you understand and identify incredible opportunities that should play out in early 2019. We know you will not find this type of analysis anywhere else on the planet and we know just how valuable these charts are too skilled traders. So, get ready for some incredible moves – as impossible as they may seem.

Let’s get started with Crude Oil. This Monthly chart of Crude showing our ADL price modeling system is clearly indicating the first few months of 2019 will include increased price volatility. One thing to pay attention to as we review these charts are the BLUE TRIANGLES, which is where we asked the ADL predictive modeling system for a detailed analysis, and the CYAN, YELLOW, and WHITE DASHED LINES, which is where the ADL system is showing us the highest probability price outcome into the future. On this chart, we can see that the predicted price levels of the past have been relatively close to where the price has closed on each monthly price bar. Going into the future, we can see 3~4 months of price volatility between $50 and $65 (roughly) with rotating higher/lower price objectives. We interpret this as greatly increased price volatility with the potential of supply events disrupting global expectations in oil. These could be intermediate-term price rotations that keep the price within our $50~65 price range, or they could be large range, very dramatic price rotations as a result of massive global supply events.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

What Will the Stock Market do in 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

What will the U.S. stock market do in 2019? It depends on who you ask.

1. Wall Street analysts are generally bullish. The average analysts’ year-end 2019 prediction is 3000 for the S&P. Analysts have a bullish bias.
2. The media is bearish (again), as they are every year. The media (financial media, social media, bloggers) have a bearish bias because bad news sells. It’s in their interest to sensationalize everything and scare the crap out of you. Scary headlines = more attention & ad revenue.

But as always, here at Bull Markets we try to follow the data and remain as objective as possible. We don’t always get it right, but following the data = a much better success % vs. random guessing.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Warning: A Lehman Event is About to Hit Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Last week’s rally was the result of multiple interventions.

“Someone” took advantage of the extremely light holiday volume to ramp markets higher via indiscriminant buying. The media is trying to portray this action as the result of “investors” or “value seekers” but neither of those groups was involved.

This was a clear and obvious buying program made by “someone” who didn’t want stocks to officially enter a bear market by falling 20%. One of the key “tells” that this was manipulation is that underperformers like banks and homebuilders didn’t lead the rally.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Fake Markets and Return of the “Plunge Protection Team” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s amazing what passes as a market these days.

Stocks rallied during the Christmas week, and the mainstream financial press would like you to believe bargain hunters swooped in after the weeks of heavy selling to grab some deals. The truth is there are very few actual people still evaluating the merits of publicly traded companies.

The markets are driven by programmed trading and central planning. The artificial nature of markets was on full display last week.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump and Britain's countdown to BrExit Independence (29th of March 2019) proved to be the weapons of mass financial distraction of 2018 that dominated politics and the financial markets. Both born out of 2016 elections seeking to upset the status quo of an elite that had taken their electorates for granted for decades that culminated in the failure of politicians to hold the banking crime syndicate to account for the financial crisis which ushered in a decade of economic depression for most of the electorate.

In the UK a Remainer Prime Minister has been determined to subvert the will of the British people with most Westminister politicians encouraging calls for a further chaos inducing Second Referendum that the establishment are certain to engineer to deliver a REMAIN outcome as illustrated by the economic collapse propaganda surging out of the Bank of England downwards.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, December 31, 2018

The Stock Market Plunge Protection Team, The Fed & The Investor Costs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Dan_Amerman

The "Plunge Protection Team" is the colloquial name for the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). The Working Group was established by the executive order of President Reagan in 1988, in the aftermath of the stock market plunge of October, 1987.

The group reports to the President, and the official members of the group include the Secretary of the Treasury, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the chairman of the SEC, and the chairman of the CFTC. In other words, the group members are the four most powerful financial officials in the United States. In practice, the committee can be composed of senior aides and officials that have been designated by those top officials.

Monday, December 31, 2018

The Stock Market Made a Sharp Reversal Last Week. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market is making an oversold bounce right now, and is stuck at its fibonacci retracement (23.6%). The standard target for a bounce is 38.2% – 50%

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Stock markets are forever cyclical, an endless series of alternating bulls and bears.  And after one of the greatest bulls in US history, odds are a young bear is now gathering steam.  It is being fueled by record Fed tightening, bubble valuations, trade wars, and mounting political turmoil.  Bears are dangerous events driving catastrophic losses for buy-and-hold investors.  Different strategies are necessary to thrive in them.

This major inflection shift from exceptional secular bull to likely young bear is new.  By late September, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had soared 333.2% higher over 9.54 years in a mighty bull.  That ranked as the 2nd-largest and 1st-longest in US stock-market history!  At those recent all-time record highs, investors were ecstatic.  They euphorically assumed that bull run would persist for years.

Saturday, December 29, 2018

2019: Zombie Markets Before The Fall / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I haven’t really written about finance since April of this year, and given recent fluctuations in what people persist in calling the markets, maybe it’s time. Then again, nothing has changed since that article in April entitled This Is Not A Market. I was right then, and I still am.

[..] markets need price discovery as much as price discovery needs markets. They are two sides of the same coin. Markets are the mechanism that makes price discovery possible, and vice versa. Functioning markets, that is. Given the interdependence between the two, we must conclude that when there is no price discovery, there are no functioning markets. And a market that doesn’t function is not a market at all.

[..] we must wonder why everyone in the financial world, and the media, is still talking about ‘the markets’ (stocks, bonds et al) as if they still existed. Is it because they think there still is price discovery? Or do they think that even without price discovery, you can still have functioning markets? Or is their idea that a market is still a market even if it doesn’t function?

Saturday, December 29, 2018

World Stock Market Indices: When to Start Buying Stocks Again? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The World Indices have shown a sideways to lower year in 2018. The last Quarter alone World Indices lost their gains, for example, the SPX or the Dow Jones. Other World indices peaked earlier than others this year and some of them did not produce new highs again.

There is a lot of speculation going around the Market which results in many questions which need to be answered. We can hear a lot of experts calling different reasons and scenarios. It goes from a Political crisis to the Trade war with China, to the Feds raising interest rates and many more assumptions. However, the reality is that neither of the mentioned reasons can justify the latest moves in our opinion.

Friday, December 28, 2018

From Stock Market Panic to Euphoria - Upward Reversal or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks rallied on Wednesday, retracing their Monday's and some of their last Friday's decline, as investors' sentiment much improved after Tuesday's holiday pause. We saw a panic-selling climax on Monday, but did the downtrend reverse?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 5.0-5.8% on Wednesday, as they retraced their Monday's sell-off and got above last Friday's closing prices. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the late April of 2017 and it traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 yesterday. The daily low was at 2,346.58. Then the market rallied and closed 16.1% below the mentioned record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.8% on Wednesday.

Thursday, December 27, 2018

When Will the First Big Stock Market Rally Start? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P has now fallen -20%, the conventional definition for a “bear market” (We define “bear markets” as 33%+ declines that last at least 1 year. 15%+ declines = “big corrections”).

Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Next Stock Market Crisis is Here and Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The next crisis is here.

And yes, it is a crisis. Ignore anything the media says about this, we are seeing selling that is on par if not worse than the 2008 collapse.

And it’s not over by a long stretch.

Most traders remain in complete denial about what is happening. They think this is some kind of garden-variety correction or that investors are overreacting to the Government shutdown.

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Has this Stock Market Selloff Reached a Bottom Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone wants to know if this selloff has reached a low or bottom yet and what to expect over the next 30~60+ days. Since October, the US stock market has reacted to the US Fed raising rates above 2.0% with dramatic downward price moves. The latest raise by the US Fed resulted in a very clear price decline in the markets illustrating the fact that investors don’t expect the markets to recover based on the current geopolitical and economic climate.

Over 5 years ago, our research team developed a financial modeling system that attempted to model the US Fed Funds Rate optimal levels given certain inputs (US GDP, US Population, US Debt, and others). The effort by our team of researchers was to attempt to identify where and when the US Fed should be adjusting rates and when and where the US Fed would make a mistake. The basic premise of our modeling system is that as long as Fed keeps rates within our model’s optimal output parameters, the US (and presumably global) economy should continue to operate without massive disruption events unless some outside event (think Europe, China or another massive economic collapse) disrupts the ability of the US economy from operating efficiently. We’ve included a screen capture of the current FFR modeling results below.

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Rampaging Stock Bear Markets WorldWide vis-à-vis CHRISTMAS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: I_M_Vronsky

All major stock indices WORLDWIDE are presently in a Bear Market mode. In fact there is no exception: Stocks are trending downward in the North America, Asia, Europe and Mexico…without exception. This analysis will consist of mainly the stock charts of 16 major exchanges of the three continents (i.e. the Americas, Asia and Europe):

• North America (USA and Canada)

• Asia (China, Hong Kong, India and Japan)

• Europe (Germany, France and Euro FTSE)

• Mexico

• Dow Jones Global And World Indices

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Treasury Secretary Panics as Stock Markets Melt Down and Trump Mulls Firing Fed Chair Powell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Wall Street didn’t take well to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and projection for two more to come in 2019.

Neither did the White House.

President Donald Trump slammed Fed chairman Jerome Powell yet again and reportedly asked advisors within his inner circle whether he has the legal authority to fire Powell.