Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market tanked -3% today as the yield curve started to invert.

Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow closed down near 800 points Tuesday at 25,027, which followed a rally into the weekend G20 meeting and Monday's buying climax high to Dow 26,000 that the mainstream financial media put down to a halt of Trade War hostilities between the US and China.

Tuesday, December 04, 2018

Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I wonder how many of you had your brains in gear when following the action in the market this past week. For those that did not, let’s review what happened.

First, the market broke out “bigly” on Wednesday, and every media source and investor was absolutely certain that it was due to the Fed chairman’s speech (even though he really said nothing new, as future rate decisions were always going to be data driven). Yet, the next day, the Fed minutes came out that clearly noted they are continuing to raise rates. And, what did the market do on that information? Of course, it rallied further.

Monday, December 03, 2018

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The continued efforts of our research team to identify and quantify the possibility that the capital shift which has taken place over the past 18+ months may be shifting to other assets is in the interest of all global investors.  Is there a new, more opportunistic investment that will take away from the capital that has been rushing into the US equity markets over the past 2+ years or is the capital shift towards the US equity markets still intact?  These are the questions before us and these are the questions that will determine if the US equity markets continue to rally or continue to top out.

Monday, December 03, 2018

Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and South Korea’s Kospi stock indexes gained 2.2%, 2% and 1.6%, respectively. The Chinese yuan rose 0.36% to about 6.925 per U.S. dollar. Ahead of the U.S. open, S&P 500 futures also climbed 1.5%. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the deal on Saturday in Buenos Aires. It offers Beijing a reprieve from a planned increase in tariffs, scheduled for Jan. 1, on $200 billion in Chinese goods exports to the U.S. Tariffs were scheduled to rise to 25% from 10%.

We have been long equity markets in Novemeber from 2640 here: Be long S&P Since our trade, the equity markets have rallied over +4% in Novemeber.

Monday, December 03, 2018

Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend –  bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, December 03, 2018

Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market rallied last week and is now sitting just under its 200 day moving average.

Monday, December 03, 2018

More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is sitting right under its 200 day moving average right now. The stock market is demonstrating various late-cycle signs. These late-cycle signs are not immediately long term bearish, but it demonstrates that the long term winds will change in 2019.

Sunday, December 02, 2018

A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.

Fed Finally Blinks

Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.

This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.

Sunday, December 02, 2018

Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The SPX Index is trading within a Blue Box in our system, these boxes are areas in which the Market needs to define whether it will become an Impulsive sequence which runs in 5-9-13 waves or corrective sequence in which runs in 3-7-11 waves. Many traders who follow The Elliott wave Theory understand the idea of 5 waves followed by 3 waves back as shown in the following chart.

Friday, November 30, 2018

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting Imnplications for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market.  Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global economies and rushed into the US stock market because of a tremendous value opportunity that existed at that time.  Technology, Biotech and many others equity sectors were skyrocketing – in some cases 2~3% a month.  This ROI, along with the benefit of a stronger US Dollar, created a very unique environment where foreign capital could rush into the US markets, land pretty much anywhere and become relatively safe from foreign risks/devaluation.

Friday, November 30, 2018

The US Economy is Getting Worse. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. economy is starting to deteriorate, which is what typically happens in the last year of a bull market.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks rallied on Wednesday following breaking out above their week-long consolidation. The S&P 500 accelerated higher after breaking above 2,700 mark. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just another advance within a consolidation following the October sell-off?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 2.3-3.0% on Wednesday, as investors sentiment much improved following breaking out above the recent trading range. The S&P 500 index got back above the level of 2,700. It currently trades 6.7% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.0% on Wednesday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,750, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,780-2,800, among others. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,680-2,700, marked by the recent resistance level.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Well that was quick. Less than 2 months ago Fed chairman Powell said that interest rates were “far below neutral” (implying that rates needed to be hiked much more). After the stock market has fallen 10%, Powell now thinks that “interest rates are close to being neutral” (implying that fewer rate hikes are needed).

The stock market rallied on this news.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: F_F_Wiley

“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements

In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.

We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Graham_Summers

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Are We Approaching A "Once-In-A-Century" Type Stock Market Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others -- along with the comments -- to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:

"For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70's, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As we approach the final month of this year, it’s worth reflecting on our thoughts and actions over the past year. Reflection is how you become a better investor and trader.

I posted the following chart in December 2017. Interesting how this year’s max drawdown is pretty much inline with the average drawdown of -12%

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.