Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, January 30, 2015
To Create Unlimited Market Liquidity or Not; That Is the Question / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
"On October 15, 2014 between 9:33 and 9:45, liquidity evaporated in Treasury futures and prices skyrocketed (causing yields to plummet). Five minutes later, prices returned to 9:33 levels.
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Friday, January 30, 2015
SPX completes a Leading Diagonal Wave [i] and [ii] / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The overlap and in the Waves and the 47% retracement makes this more clearly a Minute (Leading Diagonal) Wave [i] and [ii] today. Wave [i] bounced off the hourly Cycle Bottom support at 1988.39 and completed what appears to be a 5-wave sub-Minute Wave (c) of Minute Wave [ii] at the close.
Tomorrow we may see a lesser degree iteration of sub-Minute Waves (i)-(ii), to start off Wave [iii] of3.
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Friday, January 30, 2015
It’s Not Time to Sell Everything – Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Shah Gilani writes: One of my favorite lines is “I’m not the kind of guy to say I told you so – but if I was, I’d sure be saying it now.”
As far as saying “I told you so,” back in the summer of 2008, in my “Friday Night Illumination” emails to my banker and trader friends, I screamed, “SELL EVERYTHING!”
People thought I was nuts. Literally, that I’d lost my mind. Sell everything – no one ever says that, ever.
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Thursday, January 29, 2015
13 Investment Themes for 2015 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” says my friend Gary Shilling as he kicks off today’s Outside the Box. He’s referring to his investment themes for 2015. He first gives us 11 reasons to continue favoring long Treasury bonds. That’s an obvious play for him if you know his view, but it’s nevertheless a compelling one this year and one that you should think through, given the specter of deflation about in the world, the firing up of QE in Japan and Europe (which gives folks money to buy … Treasurys), and the safe-haven status of the US dollar.
Gary’s reason #9 for buying Treasurys is that “The odds of a near-term Fed rate hike are receding. He sees any Fed rate increase being pushed out “as the deflationary effects of the oil price plunge sink in and investors – and the Fed – realize that foreign central bank stimuli amount to Fed tightening [in relative terms].”
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Thursday, January 29, 2015
Stocks Suffered Some Further Losses Following FOMC Decision Release / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Fed Market Friendly As Usual.... Stock Market Caring Less And Less.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
If you've noticed over the past many weeks and really two to three months, the market hasn't had the ability to break out to new highs. We've seen dramatic, if not historical, measures taken by the ECB with regards to unprecedented levels of free bank cash with a new QE program of over one trillion per year, not to mention that it is open ended. We've seen our Fed, Ms. Yellen, today say rates will stay low. That she has the markets back. Of course, those aren't her exact words, but they sure are implied, and the market knows it. The markets initial reaction, as always, was to try higher. It always tries higher. This time higher didn't hold. More and more measures are being taken globally to prop up markets and their respective economies, but the measures taken are having less of a positive effect.
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Thursday, January 29, 2015
Stock Market Breakdown! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX has broken beneath previous lows, giving another confirmed sell signal. I had expected an attempt at the highs late this afternoon, but liquidity is the lowest ever in the futures markets for a FOMC day. This morning’s Minute Wave [ii] top may actually be the Primary Cycle pivot.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Acceleration Of Events With Rising Chaos – US Dollar Death Foretold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
In the closing months of 2014, on numerous occasions the position was put forth that as the days of January stacked up, toward the end of the month and going into February, that the global financial structures would show severe strain, widespread disruptions, and possible signs of cracks in breakdown. The forecasts were clearly stated and repeated. Even the present flow of events has been shocking, despite the expectation. The forecast certainly has proved correct. The disruptive events and pace of systemic breakdown are surely going to continue. The year will go down in history as extremely messy, extremely chaotic, and extremely important in the demise of the USDollar. Check the 7-year cycle for an amazing sequence that goes back to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1980 Gold & Silver Hunt Brothers peak, the 1987 Black Monday, the 1994 Irrational Exuberance with ensuing Asian Meltdown, the 2001 Inside 9/11 Job, and the 2008 Lehman failure. The year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks, set up with Ukraine and the European repeat of Waterloo. A quickening pace of events is highly indicative in two natural types in nature, namely the lead up to a natural earthquake, and the lead up to a human childbirth.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Cyber War Poses Risks To Banks and Deposits / Stock-Markets / Cyber War
Cyber Attacks Growing In Frequency – Entire Western Financial System Is Vulnerable
The threat posed by cyber war to our increasingly complicated, technologically dependent and vulnerable financial institutions, markets, banks and indeed deposits becomes more clear by the day.
British and US agents will carry out a mock cyber attack or ‘cyber war games’ on the Bank of England and commercial banks in City of London and on Wall Street in the coming months as part of tests on critical, but vulnerable financial infrastructure.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Bread and Circuses (Not All Inflation Is about Footballs) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Guy Christopher writes: I know it's easy to brush off those constantly mounting reports and stories of decay, destruction, and despair. I sometimes find myself ignoring as much bad news as possible, just to keep my sanity.
Then I realize that heaping one atrocity after another onto my growing pile of information-overload is purposely designed to wear me out, so that I'll ignore new attacks on my Constitution and new betrayals from those I elected to office. They want me to grow weary of learning what's true, hoping I'll overlook what I recognize as lies.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Stock Market George Lindsay's 8-year Interval Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
The late technician, George Lindsay described an 8-year interval as part of his 22-year Overlay (An Aid to Timing, SeattleTA Press, 2012). He wrote that the high (or "moment of truth") at the end of the interval is often followed by a harsh 2-3 month decline followed by an approximate 5-month rally in equities.
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
This Is What It Means To Lose A Currency War / Stock-Markets / Currency War
The term gets tossed around a lot, but the meaning and consequences of a “currency war” aren’t intuitively clear to most people. Especially confusing is the idea that you lose the war when your currency goes up. The suddenly very strong dollar, for instance, should, one would think, be a good thing, since it seems to imply that the rest of the world is impressed enough to covet our currency.
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
The Most Overlooked “Buy” Signal in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Editorial Note: With the Dow opening at a loss of 285 points, today’s featured article couldn’t have been timed better. Below, Matthew Carr shares his favorite metric for determining whether a market is a “Buy” or “Sell.” We hope you’re able to put this information to good use.
The markets are flashing red.
Your palms are starting to sweat.
Should you sell? Should you buy?
Is this the bottom? Or the beginning of the end?
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Stock Markets Gapping Down... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
As of 8:30 am SPX appears to have broken through hourly mid-Cycle support at 2037.79. The 50-day and Intermediate-term support are behind it. Short-term support at 2031.90 may temporarily delay the SPX decline, but if it opens beneath it, the final support may be hourly Cycle Bottom support at 1985.48.
There appears to be no organized resistance to this decline so far. USD/JPY is down to 117.56 this morning and falling. My report on the liquidity indexes make it clear that there may be no support from those resources, either.
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Stock Market Meandering...WDC Sad...Where From Here... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The market doesn't seem to know what it wants to do short term, but what I can tell you is that there is no selling nor buying of any great intensity as we're simply handling out. When the big picture trend is in a handle you still have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. That said, you can't argue with the red flags either from the perspective of just ignoring them because you want to. Your desire to not want to think about any headaches can eventually cause you some if you don't at least recognize the possibilities.
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Monday, January 26, 2015
Stocks Bull Market Nearly Six Years In... And Plenty of Upside Remains / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: The Bernanke Asset Bubble will celebrate its sixth birthday this March...
But this bubble still has plenty of room to run...
Stocks are nowhere near "bubble" valuations today. And that means our upside is still high.
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Monday, January 26, 2015
Stock Market Test of Strength / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Until the ECB announcement of €1 trillion in QE, the equity markets were struggling to maintain their upside, near-vertical trajectory. The equity market Cycles seemed to have recently changed in character, and were at serious risk of rolling over and failing. And a failure at this point in the Investor Cycle, after such a massive and speculative bull market, would open the door to a significant decline and possibly even signal that the current great bull market was finally over.
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Monday, January 26, 2015
ECB QE Action - Canary’s Alive & Well / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 327), a 35 page report covering economic data and indicators, US and global stock markets, commodities and clear technical and macro fundamental parameters on gold, silver and the miners…
Canary’s Alive & Well
This week we will cover the ECB QE action, Euro, USD and their implications for global trade. We’ll also update a still-intact rally in gold, silver and the miners along with some (NFTRH+) trade opportunities. But first let’s review December’s Semiconductor Equipment sector Book-to-Bill ratio, just out on Friday evening and discuss some of the dynamics in play with respect to the ‘b2b’ and the US economy.
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Monday, January 26, 2015
Possible Stock Market Pop-n-drop in Store For SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX futures opened at 6:00 pm last night down 15 points. It sank another 10 points before catching a bid and recovering all the loss. The Premarket is currently up 2 points. The overnight action suggests a potential target near 2075.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Surprise! The weakness overnight in US equity futures has been eradicated in its best USDJPY-driven fashion. S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq futures have all managed to float higher on a sea of Crude and JPY carry exuberance to fill the overnight gap perfectly... except now that they have, USDJPY and Crude have turned down...We suspect the word "contained" will win CNBC-Bingo today...”
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Monday, January 26, 2015
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Move Up As Investors Take Some Short-Term Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish