Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, December 17, 2014
How to Profit From Russia's Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Russia
The collapse in oil prices has exposed some vulnerable economies. All of them are dependent upon crude export sales to maintain even the appearance of a national budget.
As you might expect, every member of OPEC falls into this group, although Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have sufficient reserves that will allow them to carry sizable budget deficits for some time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Stock Market Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
7 Year Cycle Highs
For several decades the Dow has exhibited a cycle of seven years between highs. It has been as short as six years and, on one occasion, it stretched closer to eight years. All cycle highs matched the highs of Lindsay's basic cycles. The previous cycle high was in Oct 2007 and which makes a cycle high due now. The high should be point H of Lindsay's long cycle. Past experience implies it could come as late as Oct 2015 but a six-year cycle low makes that very unlikely.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Russia Crisis - If You Put Your Money in the Bank Will You Get it Back? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, told Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle and Matt Miller today that loose rule of law is a major concern for investors who are considering buying assets in Russia. Marks said: "In order to make investments, you have to believe that you will benefit from the rule of law...The underlying question about Russia is whether you will. The question is, if you put your money in the bank will you get it back in the end?"
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Will the European Union Reindex Stock Markets to 100 points? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The introduction of the euro brought the citizens of Europe many advantages, including uniformity. It would be nice if that uniformity also applied to the comparison of the various stock exchanges. An index point is not a fixed unit in time and does not have any historical significance, so the European citizen may therefore not attach any significance for the future. Comparing index points to their history and also comparing the various stock exchanges makes no sense. The time is ripe to reindex European stock exchanges to 100 points.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Asian Stocks Markets: Sand In The Gears Of The Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
George R. Harrison writes:
The Asian Stock Market scene has been dynamic and strong. At least until some sand got into the gearworks a few months back and started to grind the bull markets to a halt.
The 'canary in the coal mine' was first spotted in the Malaysian Stock Index.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Wall Street’s Big Boys Bulldoze Through the Spending Bill They Want / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Shah Gilani writes: We’ve got a spending bill, folks!
The government of the United States will remain open for business thanks to the usual suspects in Congress being open to being bought.
Sometimes it only takes a few phone calls from a deep-pocketed giant bank CEO to remind legislators who butters their bread.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Investment Advisor - “Why I Quit” / Stock-Markets / Investing
As many of you probably already know, I have decided that it is no longer in the best interests of clients to provide ‘advisory’ services regarding securities specifically, and paper investments in general. This decision follows a rather similar move made by former broker Ann Barnhart and while our reasons differ slightly, the bottom line is the same: I feel that it is no longer possible to provide even a reasonable assurance to my clients that I can provide anything in the way of protection from market volatility, bail-ins, cleanouts like 2008, and so forth in an advisor capacity. So, to put it bluntly…I quit. But I’m not done if that makes any sense. Please bear with me and keep reading.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Stock Market VIX Volatile Volatility, you have to see this to believe it! / Stock-Markets / Volatility
My conjecture may be right. Someone very big appears to be caught on the wrong side of this trade. I have been watching this nonsense for the past two hours. This may not end well for the poor guy(s) that cannot get out.
Earlier today ZeroHedge revealed a low liquidity alert in the SPX futures. It may have also extended to the VIX.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Market Probable Pop-n-Crash Today / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Crude oil is in the news this morning as Crude Oil futures bounced 2.5 points in the overnight session. That was only Wave (a) of [iv]. It is pulling back and Wave (c) of [iv] may take Crude as high as 63.16. This calculation assumes that Wave [iv] is the same length as Wave [ii].
Based on that calculation and the Fibonacci Relationship between the declining waves, it anticipates a probable decline to 62.00. This is all conjecture at this point. We may be able to get a better handle on this as Wave [iv] completes later today, a Trading Cycle Piovt day.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Indexes Continue Sell-Off Following Declining Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Market Time for a Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - A correction of currently indeterminate time frame has started. There is a good chance, however, that it will be more than a short-term correction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Market Euphoria: The Mother of All Ponzi Schemes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The bubble of all bubbles. A house of cards waiting to collapse, says Paul Craig Roberts.
A great unraveling looms. America’s economy based on market manipulation. Rigging things one way.
Smoke and mirrors deception. Money printing madness. Privatizing profits. Socializing losses. Upside down reality.
Shifting wealth in unprecedented amounts. More than what’s comprehensible. To monied interests. From ordinary folks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 14, 2014
The Rushing Stocks Bear Market and How to Prepare / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Oil prices plunged to their lowest prices in five years last week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its forecast for global oil demand for the fifth time in six months.
The IEA report told markets that global growth will remain weak in 2015, triggering an across-the-board sell-off in stocks and junk bonds on Friday that left the major indices with some of their worst percentage losses in three years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Money Managers - If They Only Knew How Little You Know / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Pretend, for a minute, that you’re a money manager in today’s manipulated world. You understand that most of what’s happening is the result of governments and central banks forcing down interest rates and pumping up asset prices. You don’t trust this process but since “the markets are recovering” you’ve felt compelled to play along, putting your clients into a standard mix of stocks, bonds and cash.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Will Falling Oil Prices Crash the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Crude oil prices dipped lower on Wednesday pushing down yields on US Treasuries and sending stocks down sharply. The 30-year UST slipped to a Depression era 2.83 percent while all three major US indices plunged into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) led the retreat losing a hefty 268 points before the session ended. The proximate cause of Wednesday’s bloodbath was news that OPEC had reduced its estimate of how much oil it would need to produce in 2015 to meet weakening global demand. According to USA Today:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Stock Market Downtrend Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
A nasty week in many markets worldwide. The week started off with a gap down opening after closing last week at SPX 2075. It had another gap down opening on Tuesday, then a third gap down on Wednesday hitting SPX 2024. Thursday the market reversed the volatility with a gap up and hit SPX 2056. Then Friday resumed the turbulence to the downside with another gap down opening, and market ended the week at its low SPX 2002. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 3.65%, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.65%, and the DJ World index lost 3.60%. Economic reports for the week were biased to the upside. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: export/import prices, the PPI, and the monetary base. Next week lots of action. Highlights include the FOMC meeting, Industrial production, Housing, and Options expiration.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Overbought Stock Market Pullback...Finally.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market was begging for it. Day after day we stayed pretty much at overbought levels on all the major oscillators. The RSI's are sometimes staying well above normal overbought levels of 70. Readings in the lower 80's are not abnormal. You sit and wonder how long it can last. You know it's going to finally sell hard, but figuring out that moment is not an easy chore by any means. We have stayed overbought longer than most would have thought possible, and those who shorted at the first signs of overbought paid a big price as the market kept climbing higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
U.S. Congress Has Guaranteed the Secular Stocks Bear Market is Not Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The cyclical bull market that began in 2009 has not ended. Enjoy it while it lasts because the long-term secular bear market that began in 2000 has also not ended.
Secular markets are very long-term trends within in which cyclical market moves take place. The last secular bull market ran for 18 years, from 1982 to the peak in 2000.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
Stock Market SPX Top Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention. Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are fairly valued or even cheap, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested. But a growing chorus of dissenters is disputing that idyllic notion, warning that stock valuations are very high and portend great downside risk. Indeed, topping valuations abound.
Since investing is all about buying low and selling high, the price paid for any investment is everything. Buy good companies at cheap prices, and you’ll multiply your wealth over time. But buying those very same good companies at expensive prices radically stunts future gains. While cheap investments have great potential to soar as traders recognize their inherent value, expensive ones have already exhausted their upside.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
Mastering the Art of Financial Backtalk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Alan Greenspan has popped back into the limelight and confirmed some of my worst fears (not that they needed much confirming). Here’s a recap of statements Greenspan made at the New Orleans Investment Conference:
Read full article... Read full article...