Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, December 12, 2014
A Probable Stock Market Crash Scenario / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Today we are at an equivalent point with the high on October 14, 1987. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
On Wednesday, October 14, 1987, the SPX retested the bottom trendline of its Broadening Wedge in a Minute wave [ii]. Today we crossed inside (for a second time) a more bearish Orthodox Broadening Top in a Minute wave [ii].
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
When the Market Moves Fast, Stuff Blows Up / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
One of my old rules of trading is that whenever a major asset class, index, or other benchmark has a sudden, rapid move in price, something blows up. Sky high.
That’s because people get used to regimes. They get used to a certain state of affairs with a lack of volatility. They become complacent. Maybe they stop hedging. Maybe they allow themselves to have unbounded downside risk. Maybe they start gambling.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
State of the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We are seeing normal corrective declines in the broader indexes of late. December has been volatile from day one. Tax selling is obvious to me, and we are seeing extreme oversold set ups in Energy stocks. Insiders have been loading up the last few weeks yet those same stocks are still declining, and we think Hedge funds are taking on heavy losses, and selling is begetting selling.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
Stock Markets Sell Off Following Negative Global Economic Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, December 11, 2014
10 Outrageous Predictions For 2015 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
Interesting – if not outrageous – remarks today from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo Bank in Denmark, always good for some fresh insights, and a statement from him that I would like to decorate with a few question marks. As WTI oil looks threatening to break through $60 a barrel with another 5% loss today, let’s first take a look at Saxo’s, and hence Steen’s, Outrageous Predictions, via Tyler Durden. We can take it from there.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Run Away from the Fed Economic Tsunami / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
This warning comes from “Big Al” Greenspan, age 88. He’s been in the news a lot lately, speaking with Gillian Tett of the Financial Times at the Council on Foreign Relations and at the New Orleans Investment Conference. After reading several reports of both events, I spoke with Casey Research colleagues who’d attended the conference and asked, “Did Big Al really say this, this, and this?”
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Doug Casey on Russia and Russian Stocks / Stock-Markets / Russia
By Nick Giambruno
Nick: Okay Doug, so looking around, what markets look cheap to you today?
Doug: I saw recently that many stocks in Greece are selling at around four times earnings. But I don’t know what the quality of their earnings are. Of course, the dividend yield on Greek stocks isn’t very high, and dividends are, I think, the best real indicator of how much free cash flow there actually is in a company.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Is The Halt of QE3 The End of The Loose Monetary Policy? / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
The end of QE3 neither implies the real abandon of purchasing assets (due to reinvesting interest and principal payments and rolling over retiring Treasuries) nor the permanent exclusion bond-buying programs from the tools of monetary policy. Investors should also be aware that the end of QE3 does not rule out loose monetary policy. Why?
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
US Dollar and SP 500 Rally Fizzling Out? Gold Breaks Five Month Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
In a recent article I wrote, "Gold and silver could gap higher by the end of 2014 and the top notch juniors could skyrocket." I expected a breakout at $1205. It appears gold may be breaking that downtrend today.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Stock Market George Lindsay 22year Cycle Overlay / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
George Lindsay described his 22y overlay in a two part installment of his newsletter in 1964. In it he showed 18 examples of how the model had helped to time highs in the Dow. In the 22y overlay we are searching for three important intervals ending at a high 22y, 15y, and 8y later. Lows appear every ~7y followed by a high 8y after the final low.
Some of the highs he showed were significant and some were not. The significance of the forecast can predetermined by the significance of the 22y and 15y interval lows. The significance of the 8y interval does not affect the expected decline.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
European Banks At Risk Of Bail Ins In 2015 Warn Moody's and S&P / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2015
Europe's banks are vulnerable in 2015 due to weak macroeconomic conditions, unfinished regulatory hurdles and the risk of bail-ins according to credit rating agencies.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Finally Some Stock Market Selling...Nothing Bearish Yet.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
And that's the key to the whole thing. Ask yourself, is the selling that took place today bearish? Answer is that for now, not at all. No heavy push negative on the daily oscillators. No big gap down that closed at or near the lows. Just overbought conditions getting unwound as they need to be. I get tired of staring at 70 RSI's, or higher, on the daily-index charts. Thankfully, they are now all below. Many in the 50's, except the Dow. Safest dividend stocks getting the action, thus, the Dow is still in the mid-to-upper 60's. At least it's an index of only 30 stocks. So yes, solid unwinding on the index sixty-minute charts and some decent unwinding on those key-index-daily charts.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
SPX Breaks Short-term Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The short-term uptrend is broken and SPX is trading back inside its larger Orthodox Broadening Top. However, it has also developed a smaller Orthodox Broadening Top (green). In order to fulfill its structure, it should decline to 1960.00-1980.00 in the next couple of days before a bounce. The bounce may either go back to mid-Cycle support/resistance at 2056.70 before proceeding back down to lower levels. Today’s decline may be considered an aggressive sell signal for SPX.
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Monday, December 08, 2014
Crude Oil Panic Knock-on Effects / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Crude just broke below its prior low at 63.72, hitting 63.47 as I write this memo. It appears that it will decline to its Wave [iii] target of 58.45 in the next 24 hours, creating another 10% down day panic.
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Monday, December 08, 2014
Still No Short-Term Stock Market Direction As Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, December 08, 2014
The 3 Grinch that stole Xmas. Why were they flying upside down? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Nicholas Migliaccio writes: I think it was the pilot from Colorado brought in his kit. No it was really not marijuana related
t was an auroral storm of the century, trashed their instruments, in the middle of a 12 hour white out left them flying blind, and upside down, the wrong way into the West Flank of Mt.Elbert, where no one knew to look for them. Their instruments must have been trashed by the storm as the black box showed them impacting the mountain, upside down, at 550 knots. There was not much in the way of big pieces left.
Monday, December 08, 2014
Stock Market High Level Levitation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - While everything technical points to an overbought condition which should require an adjustment, the exact timing of that correction is for the market itself to decide and reveal.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, December 08, 2014
Credit Bubble World in a Box / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
Of all the problems with fiat currency, the most basic is that it empowers the dark side of human nature. We're potentially good but infinitely corruptible, and giving an unlimited monetary printing press to a government or group of banks is guaranteed to produce a dystopia of ever-greater debt and more centralized control, until the only remaining choice is between deflationary collapse or runaway inflation. The people in charge at that point are in a box with no painless exit.
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Sunday, December 07, 2014
Financial World - The Most Elementary Question Must Not Be Asked / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
We’re in dire need of fresh blood and smart new ideas to clean up the mess the present ideologies and their puppets and puppetmasters have created. The present crew has made a neverending series of ‘mistakes’, intentional or not, and they are dead set on making more, if only because they refuse to change the tack that led to all these ‘mistakes’.
I say mistakes because that’s what they are from the point of view of all those who live in the real economy, not because I think the puppetmasters are mistaken from their own point of view. After all, all they do, literally all they do, is take care of their own interests. Where they will find themselves mistaken is down the line, when there is no longer a functioning real economy, and they will of necessity end up going down with it.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Third Longest Stocks Bull Market in History / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
The market started the week at SPX 2068, gapped down to 2050 on Monday, then made higher highs for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%, and the DJ World index lost 0.25%. Economic reports on the week were mixed. On the uptick: construction spending, ISM services, non-farm payrolls, long term investing, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, consumer credit, the WLEI, the ADP index, and the trade deficit. Next week we get Retail sales, Export/Import prices and the PPI.
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