Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Stock Market Beyond Belief / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Last week's commentary, Beyond all Doubt, quickly turned to 'beyond belief' as the Dow exceeded its July 16 closing high. The market timing models of George Lindsay don't use the terms bull and bear market and I shouldn't have either. Rather his work speaks in terms of basic advances, basic declines, and basic cycles. Understanding the difference between these concepts was how he was able to make such incredible market calls during his career.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Hedge Funds Surpass 2007 Leverage; New Era of 'Permanent Investigations' Confirms Imminent Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By Elliott Wave International
Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Stocks Rally Following Janet Yellen's Conference and Scotland's Historic Referendum Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Interest rates can't stay zero forever, but for now it's more of the same.
The Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, enacted to spur growth, will indeed be winding down next month, as expected. But record-low interest rates will stay as they are for a "considerable time," Fed Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen insisted during her Wednesday press conference last week.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Death Knell for the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Rick Ackerman writes: When will the bull market end? With money velocity collapsing and ominous divergences developing in both the NYSE Advance/Decline line and the New Highs/New Lows summation, U.S. stocks closed at an all-time high last week. If this were not disconcerting enough, the Hindenburg Omen, which signals an increased probability of a stock market crash, flashed red on Friday. There was also this unequivocal pronouncement from the Elliott Wave Theorist after the Dow Industrials came within a single point last week of fulfilling their long-term rally target at 17280: “Next week, the U.S. stock averages should begin their biggest decline ever.” As for your editor, Rick’s Picks has been drum-rolling a key “Hidden Pivot” target at 2028 in the S&P 500 Index that has been 27 years in coming. On Friday, the index hit a record 2019.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
The Macro View and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Last week we noted that Uncle Buck would be front and center in the analysis, not because the strength in the (anti-market) currency was not expected (it was), but because our big picture theme of an ongoing economic contraction had remained intact (ref: gold vs. commodities ratio) over the long-term.
It is important here to remember that NFTRH would only be on its big picture macro themes as long as indictors implied they are still viable. I will be damned if I will let us follow a Pied Piper off an ideological cliff, no matter what readers (including me) might want to hear. We must dedicate to know what is happening, not what our hopes, dreams, egos, etc. think or worse, hope will happen.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Gold, the Fed and the Looming Stock Market Correction Q&A / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Shah Gilani writes: My mailbox is still bulging with all your questions about everything I’ve been writing about recently. So I’m delving back in today to answer a few more.
Last week, I took on your “looming catastrophes” and “what-if” scenarios and told you what I would do – and what I hope our leaders in Washington and Wall Street will do. (Don’t hold your breath…)
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Leading Stock Market Sectors Breaking Down – Internet & Social Stocks / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
In July I showed talked about the Russell 2K index and how it was underperforming the broad market. I went on to explain what it likely meant was in store for the US stock market this fall. The outlook was negative, just in case you were wondering…
This week I want to talk about two different sectors that have often lead the broad market in rallies and corrections over the years. These sectors have underperformed the broad market much like that of small cap stocks, and this does not bode well for investors going into fall.
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Monday, September 22, 2014
How the ECB’s Actions Could Boost U.S. Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Moe Zulfiqa writes: Not too long ago, the European Central Bank (ECB), to fight the economic slowdown in the eurozone, lowered its benchmark interest rates. The hope with this move was the same as it was in the U.S., England, Japan, or other countries that are facing economic scrutiny: lowering interest rates will eventually increase lending and eventually bring in economic growth. In addition to this, the ECB also announced that it will be taking part in an asset purchase program—something similar to what was implemented by the Federal Reserve.
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Monday, September 22, 2014
Where China and Japan Are Investing Billions / Stock-Markets / Investing 2014
Sean Brodrick writes: Japan and China are the two biggest economic powerhouses in Asia. When their wallets open up, the world takes notice.
Now, both countries are directing a lot of investment money... into India.
Japan is leading the way. Last year, it invested $1.2 billion in India - primarily targeting infrastructure. This year, it spent $1.1 billion in India between January and April alone.
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Monday, September 22, 2014
Stock Market Topping Process Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - In 1932 and 1974, the 40-yr cycle was responsible for protracted market weakness. The current phase is due this year but where is the weakness? Has man (Federal Reserve) finally achieved dominance over universal rhythms or has it simply delayed the inevitable?
Intermediate trend - We are looking for the move from 1905 to end, after which a much more serious correction should start.
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Sunday, September 21, 2014
Indian Stock Market BSE SENSEX The Encore Rally / Stock-Markets / India
The Indian stock market continues its march higher with no serious breakdown in price. But a significant decline can’t be too far away now. Perhaps this is the final rally - the encore rally. Let’s investigate.
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Sunday, September 21, 2014
ASX200 Stock Market Index Set For New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
This market has been tracking as expected over the last couple of months. However, price has now come down to the "moment of truth" zone. Will a downtrend be confirmed or will the uptrend continue? Let's find out starting with the daily chart.
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Saturday, September 20, 2014
Stocks Bull Market Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The wild and volatile week we expected was nearly all to the upside. The market started the week unchanged, completed its 1.5 week pullback on Tuesday, then made new highs on Thursday and Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.5%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.3%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: NY FED, NAHB, leading indicators, WLEI, monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, CPI, housing starts, building permits and the Philly FED. Next week we get more reports on Housing, Durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP.
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Saturday, September 20, 2014
Stock Market Top In? Nothing Bearish But Late Failure.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Interesting day. The market gapped up at the open and ran higher. It hit as high as 2019, and then started to stall and pull back. It whipsawed back and forth for a while until finally closing one point under the breakout level. A topping stick was put in so we will see what the bears can do with it early on next week. There are no excuses for when a topping stick is printed on a failed breakout that would expect at least some form of a pullback. It can anything from nasty to simply putting in a handle for a while longer before trying the breakout once again. It's very unclear for now as today should have been a top. That said, we are in a bull market, thus, never say never about breaking out again. That said, again, there are no excuses here for the bears. They have a failed breakout and a topping stick on top of that, thus, they should get busy early on next week. We shall see what they can muster up.
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Saturday, September 20, 2014
The Alibaba IPO May Shine, But Gold is Glistening / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, Alibaba (BABA) is going to become the United States largest initial public offering (IPO), U.S. stock market indexes are up nearly 2% this week, Treasury yields are near lows, and gold and silver prices are getting bludgeoned in the paper market.
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Saturday, September 20, 2014
Monetary Policy Killing The System / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
The byline should read MONEY VELOCITY HITS RECORD LOW, WHILE MONEY SUPPLY CONTINUES TO GO INTO ORBIT... SYSTEMIC FAILURE IS EVIDENT AS POLICY IS NOT STIMULUS AT ALL... THE PRINCIPAL CAUSE FOR THE BREAKDOWN IS MONETARY POLICY, WHICH IS STUCK IN PLACE.
The USFed monetary policy is killing the system, simply and boldly put. They call it stimulus, when the extreme accommodation is actually just a backdoor Wall Street bailout combined with a pass on the USGovt debt discipline. No debt limit is enforced anymore, a travesty. The United States is looking more like a Third World nation with each passing month, with colossal fraud, economic decay, war and sanctions, and no leadership. The US Federal Reserve has ventured into very dangerous ground, putting hyper monetary inflation as the installed policy, while making money free for the Interest Rate Swap machinery that operates the derivative for maintaining the easy policy.
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Friday, September 19, 2014
Russell 2000 Stock Index Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Let's analyse the Russell 200 Index which consists of 2000 small cap stocks. We'll begin with the big picture - the yearly chart.
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Friday, September 19, 2014
Investor Open House! - You've Never Seen this Before and May Never Again! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Dear reader,
After years of talking about it, it's finally here.
Our friends over at Elliott Wave International have just announced their first-ever Investor Open House!
For one exciting week -- from noon Eastern time Thursday, Sept. 25, to noon Wednesday, Oct. 1 -- they are throwing open the doors to ALL of their investor services. And it's 100% free!
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
Stock Market Dow Pop And Drop Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Dow hit an all time high today of 17221 which occurred shortly after the Fed meeting. Many readers will know that I have been looking for a pop into top around 17200 which flushes out all the stops that had built up above the 17th July high of 17151. Recent tops in August and September would have taken out some stops but the move today would have really nailed them, so to speak.
So, with the coast now clear, it's decision time on where the Dow goes from here. Does it follow through with conviction to the upside or is it time for a healthy correction and possibly something more? Let's investigate beginning with the daily chart.
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
Stocks Bullish as Fed Says No Rate Hikes Any Time Soon..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Ms. Yellen made sure she spoke the words the market wanted to hear. Keeping rates low is what the market wants, and keeping rates low is what the market will get. She won't do anything she knows will hurt the market, because she uses the market to keep her job safe. If she lets the market fall hard, then she's allowing the economy to slip, since the market is keeping the economy higher. Repeat after me. The Fed's job description is as follows: you will do whatever it takes to keep Wall Street rocking. Good luck! That's her job in a nutshell folks. Nothing more and nothing less. She's all about 401K's and funds doing well. As long as she's doing her job here, it's going to be very hard for the market to fall precipitously. That's even with froth still out of control week after week.
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