Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
UK Interest Rate Cut Surprises Markets / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England took emergency action ahead of the scheduled Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) rate setting meeting tomorrow to cut the UK base interest rate by 0.50%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Unprecedented Global Coordinated Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The US Federal Reserve along with the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, the European Central Bank, Sweden Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank acted in concert to reduce short term lending rates in pre-market hours this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crisis has intensified during the last few weeks to a new manic stage as entire countries are put at risk of bankruptcy due to their banking system rescue attempts exploding liabilities, as the demand goes out for 100% guarantees of depositors and country after country buckles under the pressure so as to prevent a collapse of their individual banking systems. However ever increasing and desperate government bailout cash in the form of escalating amounts of daily interbank liquidity, capital injections, and mortgage bond buy back schemes in addition to issuing depositor guarantees increases the liabilities of ALL countries the immediate consequences of which are being played out in ever increasing volatility in the currency markets and stock exchanges as record breaking points swings take place on alternative days. In such a panic stricken climate there are increasingly deafening calls are for immediate interest rate cuts across the western world including for an Imminent UK Interest Rate Cut. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
LIBOR OIS Spread Signals Credit Crisis Earthquake / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: More than a year ago, even before the subprime-mortgage crisis had revved itself up into the full-fledged credit crisis that's now threatening global growth, we pointed to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and other interbank rates that suggested that the worst was yet to come. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Bailout Bill Will Do Nothing for the Real Economy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Michael_Swanson
We are on the edge of pure fear and panic when it comes to the stock market. By just about every indicator you may use to measure the market it is extremely oversold and ready for a bottom. The number of stocks below their 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are at extremely low levels not seen in decades. The ratio of down to up volume on the Nasdaq was over 95% two days last week, hitting 97% last Monday, which is a level I've never seen before. The VIX is above 40 and has been at an elevated level for the past three weeks. According to the Investors Intelligence Survey there are more bears than bulls in the market, which is a positive from a contrarian standpoint. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Government Bonds Strong Rally on Grim Economic Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded up last week as panic in financial markets intensified. The latest and greatest $700 Billion bailout package was finally passed by the US authorities last Friday, but it did not seem to make much difference as stocks dropped another 3-4% once the deal was officially passed. As previously mentioned in this here column, it is just another band-aid that hopes to provide quick relief for the symptoms of this gigantic financial crisis without addressing the real problem of dealing with the excess credit that has been built up on all fronts. European governments have also been busy with various rescue plans. Ireland and Germany are leading the charge by declaring that those governments now will guarantee all deposits in their respective banking systems. Surely other countries, including the US , will not be far behind adopting this drastic measure. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
$700 Billion Printing of Bailout Monopoly Money, Hedge Your Wealth! / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: If you think the biggest cost of the $700-billion bailout package is going to be higher taxes down the road, you're wrong.
The biggest cost is going to be the sheer destruction of the purchasing power of your money, an outright devaluation of the dollar that's going to occur, no matter what.
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Saturday, October 04, 2008
LIBOR Gone Crazy as Commercial Paper Market Implodes / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- The Curve in the Road
- Necessary but Not Sufficient
- Why the Government Had to Step In
- All the King's Horses
- How Can I Be 59?
The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market, then the answer is no. But there are things it will do. This week I try to help you see what might lie ahead around the Curve in the Road. We look at how the rescue plan will function, see what is happening in the economy, and finally muse as to whether Muddle Through is really in our future. It will make for an interesting, if not very upbeat, letter, so strap in. I would like your promise to not shoot the messenger. I am just trying to give you some of my thoughts as to what may lie in our future. And remember, as you read this, we will get through it. There are better days "a'coming."
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Saturday, October 04, 2008
US Government Ramps Up the Money Printing Presses / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: After some of the most tumultuous trading in history - not to mention the most pathetic political posturing we've ever seen - my e-mail box has overflowed with questions, comments and suggestions.
This week, I want to answer one of the most frequently asked questions that I've received: "Where does all the bailout money come from?"
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Friday, October 03, 2008
ECB Signals Imminent European Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
For the first time in over five years the European Central Bank (ECB) today shifted its bias toward easing. In his subsequent comments, President Trichet stated that the ECB had "no bias" regarding future monetary policy moves, and refused to be drawn on the likelihood of a lower refi rate before year's end. However, the Council reportedly discussed only two options: leaving rates unchanged or easing. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Bailout Fixes Nothing, Banking System Collapse Approaches Climax / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Pardon the brief and jumpy style, laced with more emotion than usual. The events of the last few days have been remarkable, alarming, chaotic, and surreal. Gonna attend the Toronto gold show hosted by the Cambridge House this weekend. If you are there, grab my arm and say hello. Let me know your perspective on the brewing crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Global Deposit Bank Warfare, Governments Compete for the Biggest Bailout / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Seven-hundred billion here, $560 billion there, and pretty soon you're talking deposit-bank warfare in the battle to recapitalize financial firms..."
WELL, IT SURE BEATS trying to secure an inter-bank loan or raising cash from the stock market right now.
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Monday, September 29, 2008
Bailout Would Still Mean a Fragile US Economy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Pre NO Vote Commentary - Wall Street's hopes and prayers have been at least partially answered, as the leaders have agreed on a bill that will be introduced into the House this morning. $250 billion now, another $100 if necessary, then the final $350 would have to go through Congress. What is left out of the bill is some real assistance to the economy and actually opening the loan process. The removal of the bad loans does nothing to the balance sheets of ailing banks as the equity has already been written down; the mere buying just removes the asset and does not add any equity back into the bank.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 29, 2008
China and the Middle East to Finance US Treasury Bailout? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Wall Street Journal is reporting Financial Troubles Humble U.S. The U.S. is turning to foreign governments and other overseas investors to buy a good chunk of what could total $700 billion in Treasury debt expected to finance the bailout. Foreign investors also are needed to shore up the depleted capital of the nation's financial institutions, seen in the plan by Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to buy a large stake in Morgan Stanley, which is weighed down by bad debt and market distrust.
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Monday, September 29, 2008
Escalating Bailout Band-aids Hit US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
Bonds traded mostly in negative territory all last week. It looks like it is just regular business these days: another week, another bail-out package. The figure that is bandied about for the latest and greatest deal is a cool $700 Billion. It is just another band-aid in a series of larger and larger band-aids that hopes to provide quick relief for the symptoms of this gigantic financial crisis without addressing the real problem of dealing with the excess credit that has been built up on the consumer, corporate and government fronts. It will be raining Treasury bonds in the foreseeable future, so it is no wonder that the increasing weakness on the fundamental front is not providing much support for lower yields in the long term maturities at this juncture.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Mega-Trend: End of the Era of Falling Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
Dear Reader,
In early CAPI(SOPI)TALISATION process of USSR/RUSSIA, they have searched the earth for a nice motto for a newly minted credit card called RUSSIAN EXPRESS. Their search has finally ended when they DISCOVER(ed) the AMERICAN EXPRESS ad with a motto: Do Not Leave Home Without It.
And Bingo. The choice was uncontested. The motto became...
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Saturday, September 27, 2008
Credit Markets Hit by Category 5 Financial Hurricane / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'll never forget Hurricane Jeanne, which struck Florida four years ago this week.
My wife, young daughter, and I huddled in the shower of our older house as the battery-powered TV flashed tornado warnings and updates on the storm's 115-MPH winds.
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Friday, September 26, 2008
WaMu Goes Bust- The Credit Market Is CLOSED! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Minyanville Professor Bennet Sedacca is the brightest fixed income mind I know. Inquiring minds are tuning in to see his take on the Credit Rout for Wachovia, WaMu .
Welcome to the credit market, folks, it is officially closed.
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Thursday, September 25, 2008
Credit Stress Interbank Money Market Freeze Evident In TAF, Ted Spread, Everywhere / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Credit dislocations continue to fester. Evidence can be found in corporate bonds, preferred shares, hybrids, the Ted Spread, and even in the most recent Term Auction Facility (TAF) auctions. Let's take a look. Inquiring minds are looking at a chart of the Ted Spread.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Credit Crisis Bailout- Bill Gross Should be Ashamed of Himself! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Chip_Hanlon
I just got the chance to read the op-ed penned by Pimco's Bill Gross in this morning's Washington Post. Wow, have you read this mess?
He did get one thing right, and he backed up his math well enough: the government could potentially make some money on this plan by buying up securitized debt instruments at deeper discounts than they should otherwise be trading. But that actually points to a key, lynchpin part of the problem: mark-to-market accounting is undoubtedly preventing many free-market speculators from purchasing such securities today due to what it would immediately do to their balance sheets. Thus, government may get to scoop up this paper at a deeper discount than is warranted due to its own accounting rules! Ay, yi yi.
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