Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
U.S. Interest Rate Hike - Will The Fed Pick A Winning Combination? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s highly amusing to read all the ‘expert’ theories on a Federal Reserve hike or no hike tomorrow, but it’s also obvious that nobody really has a clue, and still feel they should be heard. Don’t know if that’s so smart, but I guess in that world being consistently wrong is not that big a deal.
Thing is, US economic numbers are so ‘massaged’ and unreliable, the Fed can pick whichever way the wind blows to argue whatever decision it makes. As long as jobs numbers get presented for instance without counting the 90-odd million Americans who are not in the labor force, and a majority of new jobs are waiters, just about anything goes in that area. Numbers on wages are just as silly.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2015
One and Done Fed is a Wall Street Fantasy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
One of the current myths promulgated by Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates once this year, breathe a sigh of relief, and be done until the "12th of never". But those who are familiar with our central bank's history are aware that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has never tightened the Fed Funds Rate just once. A quarter point hiking cycle has no historical basis and is just wishful Wall Street thinking.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Next Generation QE Money Printing Coming Soon / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Rubino
The intellectual groundwork is being laid for the next stage of the Money Bubble, and it's going to be epic. Here are excerpts from two articles that appeared over the weekend (and which should be read in their entirety). Both deal with Japan, which went all-in on debt monetization, lost badly, and now needs a new plan.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
How the Fed Is Hurting U.S. Manufacturing / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: Whether he deserves it or not, Obama is getting kudos on his handling of the economy, particularly the declining unemployment rate. In August, the official headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. But that same jobs data out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) contained some sobering news: Manufacturing payrolls are getting shredded.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.
We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.
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Saturday, September 12, 2015
The US Has Already Tightened — Which Explains A Lot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
Next week we’ll find out if the longest-ever will-they-or-won’t-they drama involving a virtually insignificant quarter-point interest rate change will amount to anything. But either way, US monetary policy is already a lot tighter than it was a year ago.
The Fed’s balance sheet, for instance, is a measure of how much new currency it is pumping into the banking system. And it’s up only $79 billion, or 1.8%, in the past year. In real terms, that’s flat to slightly negative.
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Friday, September 11, 2015
Bloomberg Interest Rate Hike Odds Still Wrong; Deflationary Bust Coming / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
As of September 10, the CME has the of a September hike by the Fed at 24%. Bloomberg says the probability of a move is 28%.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Confusions About Interest Rates Part 2 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Following the 2001 dot-com crisis, interest rates were lowered to 1% and then slowly raised to 5% over a 4-year period. This timid policy still created a massive bubble in housing that finally bust in 2008. Instead of learning from the past, we doubled down on this same failed policy. Interest rates were then lowered to 0% and have been held there with little political will to raise them one iota.
We are now on the eve of another major financial crisis, yet economists (except Austrians) still don’t really understand the role played by interest rates in a capitalist economy. To avoid repeating economic mistakes of the past, we must understand the faulty logic that led us to these errors.
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Thursday, September 10, 2015
Confusion About Interest Rates Part 1 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Since 2008, central banks have rushed to lower interest rates to spur growth. This has induced mal-investments in almost all asset classes. For example, with oil prices below $50 a barrel and trending lower, the shale oil industry is in serious trouble as is the banking industry that lent it over $1 trillion.
Of course, economists and faulty economic theory are 100% responsible for what is to come. The professional economist today is like the doctor of the past whose prescription to bleed the patient was considered state-of-the-art medicine; the cure, of course, being much worse than the disease.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Why the Greeks Should Repudiate Their Government’s Debt / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: MISES
Simon Wilson writes: In apportioning blame for the Greek government debt crisis, it would be difficult not to lay the major share on Greece itself. With government jobs paying three times the private sector average, a national rail service with a wage bill four times its annual revenue, a public pension system that would pay out generous benefits at fifty for anyone classified as working in “arduous” professions like hairdressing, there is no shortage of taxpayer-funded largesse running rampant through Greek society.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Fed Interest Rate Tightening Cycles and USD Performance / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Is the peak of the US dollar behind us? Depending on your USD measure of choice, the dollar may have already peaked, when using EUR and JPY, the two largest and most liquid currencies aside from the greenback. If the bulk of the USD bull market starting in summer 2014 was based on heightened expectations of a Fed hike, then would an actual Fed hike signal the peak of the US dollar? Here is our analysis on the response of the US dollar to each of the last three Fed tightening cycles (1994-1995, 1999-2000 and 2004-2006). One common theme was found.
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Here's Your Insurance Against a $200 Trillion Debt Bubble Crash / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.comPeter Krauth writes: The world is awash in debt, and it's simply unsustainable. As worldwide debt levels keep setting new records, there's no chance anyone will ever be paid back.
Even "vampire squid" Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), with its tentacles deep into bond markets, thinks so.
The world's central banks now have an insurmountable dilemma: Raising interest rates will just increase the repayment burden. Keeping them low will only inflate the debt bubbles all over.
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Monday, September 07, 2015
4 Reasons Why the Fed Will Try Quantitative Easing - REDUX / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While we were led to believe that the Fed would begin tightening upon recovery, new fears of a double dip have sparked the Keynesian clan into moving in the opposite direction. Soon enough, we believe, a new quantitative easing program will be unveiled.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 04, 2015
Meet QT; QE's Evil Twin / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Peter_Schiff
There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. There is some agreement however, that the age of ever easing monetary policy in the U.S. will be ending at the same time that the Chinese economy (that had powered the commodity and emerging market booms) will be finally running out of gas. While I believe this theory gets both scenarios wrong (the Fed will not be tightening and China will not be falling off the economic map), there is a growing concern that the new chapter will introduce a new character into the economic drama. As introduced by researchers at Deutsche Bank, meet "Quantitative Tightening," the pesky, problematic, and much less disciplined kid brother of "Quantitative Easing." Now that QE is ready to move out...QT is prepared to take over.
Friday, September 04, 2015
Bill Gross: Jobs Report Means ‘Fifty-Fifty’ Chance of Fed Sept Interest Rate Move / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio and Television about today's jobs numbers, the markets and Fed policy.
When asked whether the Fed will raise rates on September 17th, Gross said: "I still think it’s 50/50 and China and global conditions are the dominant factor. Otherwise, I would have said, yes, I think Fischer and Yellen and maybe even Dudley their fingers are itching."
Thursday, September 03, 2015
ECB Preempts Fed Inaction, PBOC Action / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The ECB succeeded in weakening the euro and bund yields with an aggressive downgrade of 2015-2017 forecasts for GDP and CPI, while announcing an increase in the issue share limit of bonds included in QE purchases to 33% from 25%. The increased limit means the ECB can buy a higher share of an individual nation's bond issue, giving it more freedom of concentration in particular issues.
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Thursday, September 03, 2015
The Student Loan Crisis Is Mounting / Interest-Rates / Student Finances
By: Peter_Schiff
Addison Quale writes: "You need a college degree to succeed in America." This idea has become so commonplace that the right to higher education is now a core issue in most political platforms. What if a young person cannot afford a college degree? The "obvious" answer from politicians on both sides of the aisle is that the government should subsidize them. Very few are brave enough to ask the far more important question: "At what cost?"
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Tuesday, September 01, 2015
Forget Decoupling - The Fed will NOT Raise Interest Rates this Year / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
USD under renewed pressure from a combination of renewed China data disappointment, weak US manufacturing ISM and lingering chatter of a September Fed hike. US stock futures began selling off 6 hours before the release of China's manufacturing PMI, which showed the first contraction in six months and the lowest figure in three years. The largely-weaker than expected manufacturing ISM (lowest in 27 months) was accompanied by broader weakness in all components.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
The Fed Talks And The Market Tanks. That’s Different / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Rubino
Normally there’s a distinct pattern to the impact of Federal Reserve statements on the financial markets. The tone of equities trading in particular starts to improve as the moment of the announcement approaches; the words turn out to be blandly positive, full of promises of easy money and upbeat forecasts; and share prices soar for a day or two. It’s been thus for most of the past six years, leading large numbers of new investors and recently-minted analysts and traders to see the Fed as a modern version of Plato’s philosopher king, wielding absolute power to achieve perfect justice in the form of rising asset prices.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Ellen_Brown
In a post on "Sovereign Man" dated August 14th, Simon Black argued that Donald Trump may be the right man for the presidency:
Read full article... Read full article...[T]here's one thing that really sets him apart, that, in my opinion, makes him the most qualified person for the job: