Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, January 08, 2011
Earnings Drive Stock Prices? See This Chart Before You Answer / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Since the time of buttonwood trees, Wall Street has had its own version of the Ten Commandments -- the cornerstone principles of conventional economic wisdom. The first of these writ-in-stone notions is the widespread belief that earnings drive the stock market.
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Friday, January 07, 2011
How High Can the Stock Market Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
With global economic activity exceeding low expectations and the Fed stating the threshold is high to scale back its money-printing program (QE2), it is a good time to examine the upside potential of the stock market. While the average investor has a limited memory when it comes to market reversal points that occurred in 1998, computers and trading algorithms have no trouble recalling them in vivid detail. Therefore, taking a little walk down memory lane may help us compete more effectively with the largest firms on Wall Street.
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Friday, January 07, 2011
Emerging Bubble Alert: "Zero-down" loans to "credit challenged" applicants are on the rise / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
Counterfeiting is an effective way to stimulate the economy, but the costs can be quite high. For example, if trillions of dollars in fake cash was injected into the financial system (undetected), we'd probably see the same type of thing that we see when a credit bubble is inflating; asset prices would rise, unemployment would fall, economic activity would increase, and GDP would soar. But when people figured out what was going on, investors would panic, the markets would crash, and the economy would go into a deflationary nosedive.
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Friday, January 07, 2011
The Changing Balance Between FTSE and DAX Stock Indices / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
From early September into mid-December the German DAX enjoyed a strong bull run supported by a strong economic recovery, which helped pan-Euro zone economic data mask the plight of many other Euro zone economies that were at best enjoying a modest recovery. Or, more typically, were gripped by the Sovereign debt crisis that has forced Greece and Ireland to seek a rescue. And to shelter under promises made by China to keep buying their Sovereign debt.
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Friday, January 07, 2011
Stock Market – Comedy or Tragedy? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Russell 8-0-0, Russell 8-0-0! Wherefore art thou Russell8-0-0? Deny thy dollar and refuse to fall, or, if thou spike not, be but consolidating at resistance and I’ll happily Capitulate….
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Friday, January 07, 2011
Gold, Silver and Stocks Converging Towards January Top / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
In recent articles and forecast updates for my subscribers, I have been preparing them for a top in Precious Metals and US Markets around Mid January. We may have already seen the intermediate top in Gold and Silver recently, and the SP 500 and US markets are not far behind.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 06, 2011
Gold, Stocks and Bonds in 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Yesterday, we promised to give you a “Prediction-Plus” about the stock market. You remember what a “Prediction-Plus” is, don’t you? It’s better than a prediction. It’s what you should believe…even if it turns out to be wrong.
What should you believe about bonds? They’re going down. They’re a “suicidal” investment, says our old friend, Marc Faber.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
QE2 & Stock Market Breadth Still Question the ‘Smart Money’ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The ‘smart money’ has been calling for a correction for over six weeks now, often citing extended sentiment to build their case. We looked at sentiment recently and agree it raises yellow flags that need to be respected, but sentiment alone is not a reason to head for the exits (yet).
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
How Long Can the S&P 500, Precious Metals, & Bonds Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
In the fine print of most investment advertisements or in the softly spoken disclaimer at the end of a commercial, we generally read or hear the phrase “past results are not indicative of future performance”. While those exact words may not be written or uttered, something along those lines is found on almost any piece of investment literature or in investment product commercials.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
The Coming Decade of Sideways Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Your latest book, The Little Book of Sideways Markets, was just published. What is a sideways market?
Let's begin with some definitions so we can speak clearly about this. When I talk about markets, I'm talking about secular markets that last longer than five years, usually decades or longer.
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Markets Vanish - 'In a Flash' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Following is a short excerpt from "War of the Nerds," which I wrote for the December, 2006, edition of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. I discussed the crises an investor ("Our Serious Investor") navigated from the 1960s to the present. Doomsday had been predicted since the dollar crises of the 1960s, yet risk had been transient. By the fall of 2006, it was obvious the U.S. mortgage market and banking system were in collapse, but securities markets were deemed riskless, as measured by bond and credit-default spreads. It is timely to resurrect the vanishing bond markets of 1914 and 2007 after the failed or distressed auctions since December 27, 2010, of euro zone, Chinese, and U.S Treasury bonds with 5-year and 7-year maturities.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Targets 1,313, 1,326 in 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
While Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index came in near expectations, it was the highest reading since May 2010. Production showed healthy gains moving from 55 to 60.7. New orders also gained 4.3 points moving to a bullish 60.9. Eleven of the eighteen industries reported growth. According to the ISM, December’s index level historically has been associated with real GDP growth of 5.0%.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Stock Market Leaders for 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks drifted quietly in the past week, seemingly satisfied with the status quo and in no hurry to get to their next destination. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index all clocked in tandem for a loss or gain of +0.1% to -0.1%.
Overseas stocks were the only major winners, with developed markets outside the United States up 1.4% and emerging markets up 2.2%.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Stock Market Heading for an Early Year 10% Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I hope everyone had a great holiday and new years!
It’s time to reset our profit counter to zero and start looking for new profitable trades along with managing our current open positions on our small cap stocks which we continue to hold with gains of 66%, 35% and 10%.
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Monday, January 03, 2011
Stocks Market Targets Short Term SPX Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the secular bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, equity markets began an upward corrective move in the form of a mini bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend into 2011.
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Monday, January 03, 2011
Shiller Abandons P E Ratio’s and Does a Roubini / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Oh dear, I suppose all good things must come to an end one day. Today, tragically, we must mourn the sad demise of “trailing P/E ratios” as the infallible predictor of the future.
Using long term analysis, Professor Robert Shiller, macromarkets chief economist at Yale University and the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, told CNBC on Friday that the S&P 500 may reach 1430 by the year 2020.
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Monday, January 03, 2011
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 3rd Jan / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The US markets spend the holiday week essentially going sideways on light volume. Economic reports were mixed. Case-Shiller housing, consumer confidence and the monetary base all declined. The Chicago PMI, pending homes sales, the WLEI, and the weekly jobless improved, with unemployment claims dropping under 400K for the first time in two years. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 0.7%, Crude slipped 0.1%, Gold rose 3.0%, and the USD lost 1.8%. Asian markets were mixed gaining 0.2%, European markets were down 2.2%, the Commodity equity group rose 0.6%, and the DJ World index rose 0.8%. Next week will likely be a busy one as most return from holiday. ISM, FOMC minutes and the Payrolls report highlight the week. Best to your New Year!
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Friday, December 31, 2010
Keep Ahead of the Herd in 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Have you ever noticed that much of the time, the forecasts for what’s going to happen next are quite often just more of what happened last? There’s no real insight, just “expect more of the same.”
That’s not how we view the world here at Elliott Wave International, where instead we study patterns of positive and negative mood to predict changes in the stock market, current events and other trends.
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Friday, December 31, 2010
Wall Street’s Push to Bring Back the Investing Public / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Investors have been liquidating bonds in the last few weeks which begs the question why. Are investors liquidating bonds in order to move cash back into stocks and other risk assets? Or is that money going under the mattress? On that score a recent news article provides a most interesting backdrop to this question.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Stock Market Outlook 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
But first, how did my forecast for 2010 work out?
A year ago there was considerable excitement about the recession having ended the previous June, and the stock market surging up in a dramatic new bull market off its March, 2009 bottom.