Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, August 23, 2009
Stock Markets Resumed their Five Month Uptrend Part2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Financial Times: Corporate bond defaults hit record “The number of companies defaulting on their debts has risen to record levels this year, according to Standard & Poor’s, while investment returns for risky corporate debt have skyrocketed since January.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Stock Markets Resumed their Five Month Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
After starting the week with a broad-based sell-off, stock markets resumed their five-month uptrend as investors’ confidence in the recovery prospects of the global economy gained traction. With risky assets back in favor, a number of bourses and crude oil closed at fresh highs for the year, showing resilience in the face of a sharp correction in China on Monday (-5.8%) and Wednesday (-4.3%). Safe-haven assets such as government bonds and the US dollar received a cold shoulder.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Strong Stock Market Uptrend Continues...Testing the 70 Week MA on the S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Solid advance off our March lows continued this week, but the market did hesitate some late week at our important 1026 70 MA on the S&P 500 (see our 1st chart below) and 2-year downtrendline on the Nasdaq which finally cleared late. While we did close a few points over 2015, the close at SPX 1026 means the 70 week moving average hasn't been broken by the bulls just yet. That's the big one. If we can get the SPX well above 1026 and the Nasdaq well above 2015 then we can say with more certainty that things look even more positive for the bulls. I know it feels that way and you all know I am bullish but being bullish doesn't mean being inappropriate. You just don't go out and buy bigger because we're so close.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally, I Have Said It All! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Ok, I have said enough. I have said it all. There is nothing else to say. To spare you the trouble of having to waste your time reading and to spare me the embarrassment, there will be no comments this week. Just graphs. As expected, the sentiment picture has changed little from last week. Go bulls!!!
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
The Power of the 10-year Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Here we are again approaching another 10-year cycle peak. The last such peak was in 1999 while the most recent 10-year cycle bottom was in 2004. We wrote extensively on both episodes at the time and the 10-year cycle is one of our favorites. It’s what I like to call the “slam dunk” cycle since among all the yearly Kress cycles, the 10-year cycle at its peak and bottom phase can almost always be used for profitable trading/investing almost by itself.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Secular Stock Bear Markets and the Statistical Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Statistical Recovery, Part Three
Capacity Utilization Set to Rise
A Real Estate Green Shoot?
The Deleveraging Society
Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets
This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that, as someone said, is a recovery only a statistician could love. We look at capacity utilization, more on housing, some thoughts on debt and deflation, and some intriguing charts on volatility in the last secular bear-market cycle. This letter will print a little longer, but there are lots of charts. I have written this during the week, and I finish it here in Tulsa, where Amanda gets married tomorrow. (There is no deflation in weddings costs!)
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Peaking Risk Appetite Reversal Sends Crude Oil and Stock Markets Higher / Stock-Markets / Volatility
VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal - Just when we started highlighting the case for peaking risk appetite in last week's article, oil prices picked up the mantle for the bulls and triggered the sell USD, buy risk trade, partly caused by a plunge in weekly crude oil inventories.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Financial Hurricane, Stock Markets Being Hit by a Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The beginning of the week certainly looked like the rally was over and it was time to abandon ship. Two of my indicators were in the life rafts and starting to lower their way down to the water. Then the end of the week came and the storm seemed to dissipate. The waves have lessened and all seems back to normal as we continue the sideways action/rally.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
80 U.S. Bankrupt Bailed Out Banks This Year, Hitting Depression Era Level / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Georgia and Alabama banks with combined assets of $927 million were seized by regulators, pushing the tally of failed U.S. lenders this year to 80 amid the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
What the Autumn May Bring For the Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
History has a habit of repeating itself. Markets also, follow a similar pattern as history can show. As Summer draws to close, as we enter Autumn, I feel we are in for another action packed time, similar to the close of 2008. Optimism is in the air all around with a complete turnaround of sentiment. When the majority are optimistic, its best to go against the tide and September and October are historically torrid times for the markets.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
Stock Market Rally, This Time Is Different (In Reverse) / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
In past articles to explain the price action, I have defined the "this time is different" scenario. For example, at market tops we typically see negative divergences between prices and momentum oscillators that measure price. These negative divergences are indicative of slowing upside momentum and a point where traders are likely to look for the market to rollover. If prices continue to move higher despite the presence of these negative divergences, often times we find investors saying "this time is different" as prices accelerate much higher. Of course, I think the acceleration in prices is due to short covering as traders who where expecting the market to rollover are now forced to cover their positions.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Bob Farrell, 10 Rules to Follow for this Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
There aren’t too many hard and fast rules to be a successful investor.
After all, investing successfully at times requires you to flexible or rigid, take action in a plodding or swift manner, patient or impatient, and it all depends on ever-changing circumstances.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Stock Markets Bailout Bubble, What's On the Horizon? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
OVERVIEW - STOCK prices around the world recently hit their highest levels for this year, buoyed by a wave of optimism about prospects for a global economic recovery - only to fall back to a three-month low this week on fresh doubts about the sustainability of that recovery. So, is it 'for real' or is it destined to run out of steam? The Business Times empanelled a team of key experts to answer this critical question, and to tell us whether the world faces a threat of inflation, deflation or stagflation in the coming months. There were mixed views on the prospects for equity markets, but interestingly, everyone on the panel was bullish about gold.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 21, 2009
Robert Prechter New Warning on Financial Crisis and Economic Depression / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Dear reader,
Our friends over at Elliott Wave International (EWI) are offering Bob Prechter’s recent 10-page market letter, free. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Learn more.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Stock Markets Another Glass Half Full Day / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
A real pick and mix day US data wise yesterday with initial jobless claims unexpectedly rising again, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index breaking into positive territory, leading indicators9.24% of all loans are now delinquent rising for the fourth consecutive month and mortgage delinquencies reaching record highs in Q2. . 23% of the mortgages in Florida are now either late on payment or in some part of the foreclosure process.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Watch Your Back on Wall Street, Seriously / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I remember my first time "getting used" by Wall Street... It was for 500 bucks. But I was disgusted by it. It was in my own firm!
Here's the story...
Friday, August 21, 2009
Stock Market Solid Upside Follow-through / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices had a strong follow-through session today to yesterday's late rally. The day started out with a strong move higher, as the indices reached 1614 on the NDX and 1006 on the SPX. They then went into a coiling-type consolidation pattern for several hours, consolidating bullishly, and then broke out in the last hour, reaching the session highs with about 25-30 minutes to go. A slight pullback into the close brought them off the highs.
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Thursday, August 20, 2009
ETFs Investing for Inflation or Deflation / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds
Ron Rowland writes: Which will it be: Inflation or deflation? And what can you do to protect yourself in either scenario?
My answer to the first question is BOTH! I think we’ll see waves of inflation as well as periods of deflation in the next decade. The bigger question is the timing.
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Thursday, August 20, 2009
Time of Truth for Financial Stocks XLF / Stock-Markets / Articles
The time of truth for the Financial Select Sector ETF (NYSE: XLF), which is bumping up against key near-term resistance at 14.30-14.42. If that level is hurdled, it likely will unleash additional strength that propels prices to new highs above 14.60 – towards my optimal target at 15.00/30. Conversely, inability of the XLF to hurdle and sustain above 14.30-14.42 followed by a decline that breaks 14.00 will argue that the larger corrective process off of the Aug 6th high at 14.60 remains viable and points to 13.20-13.00 prior to completion.
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Thursday, August 20, 2009
China Stock Market Panic, Investors Don't Ignore! / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Money Morning - With China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) now down about 20% from its Aug. 4 peak - a decline punctuated by a 4.3% drop yesterday (Wednesday) - the Red Dragon’s stock market is technically now in bear-market territory.
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