Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 11, 2016
Rigged U.S. Ttreasury Bond Market Double Barreled Hidden Q.E. To Infinity / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
We were just treated to a fake official rate hike, and it was cleverly executed. The recent supposed USFed rate hike was a gigantic fraud, a misdirection, a clever ploy, and an act of extreme desperation. We were told of an official 25 basis point interest rate hike. But a hike of 0.25% is nowhere to be seen. The reality is that the USFed is so strapped, so deeply under siege, so overwhelmed, that it requires urgent help from the USDept Treasury. So they have expanded QE to become Double Barreled Hidden QE to Infinity. It has an important feature now, with national security stamped on it. This is truly the end game for the USDollar. Big thanks to Rob Kirby and EuroRaj on my colleague team for leading the way and shining the spotlight. Their abilities to see through the maze, smoke, mirrors, and din is impressive.
Saturday, January 02, 2016
The Fed’s Academic-Based Theories Are Creating a BRUTAL Economic Reality / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Graham_Summers
One of the most frustrating aspects of today’s financial system is the fact that the Fed is being lead by lifelong academics with no real world banking or business experience.
Consider the cases of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
Neither of these individuals has ever created a job based on generating sales of any kind. Neither of them has ever had to make payroll. Neither of them has ever run a business. What are economic realities for business owners (e.g. operating costs, capital and profits) are just abstract concepts for Bernanke and Yellen.
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Saturday, January 02, 2016
A 'Witch's Brew' Bubbling in Bond Market ETFs / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
We believe the Credit Cycle has turned and with it will come some massive unexpected shocks. One of these will be the fall out in the Bond Market, centered around the dramatic growth explosion in Bond ETFs coupled with the post financial crisis regulatory changes that effectively removed banks from making markets in corporate bonds. It is a 'Witch's Brew' with a flattening yield curve bringing it to a boil.
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Does The National Debt Supercycle Override The Normal U.S. Interest Rate Cycle? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Dan_Amerman
Markets and economies usually run in cycles and there have been numerous previous reversals where falling interest rates have been replaced by rising interest rates. The soothing reassurances from many financial authorities and much of the financial media are that there is no need for the general public to worry - because this sort of thing is quite normal.
But is this actually true? Have we really been "here" before?
Or are there are major differences between this time around and the previous cycles of rising interest rates which mean that much of recent history may not apply at all?
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Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now! Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames
The Italian economy is growing, albeit barely. But Italy is still saddled with massive amounts of debt.
Citizens are upset about a recovery that has passed most of them by. For example, youth unemployment is a whopping 39.8%.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Monetary Policy Monster With A Key To Its Own Cage / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: John_Rubino
Out on the fringes of monetary policy, a merger of sorts is taking place between the debt jubilee and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The result — likely to emerge sometime in 2016 — will make the past decade’s bank bailouts and QE programs look like kid stuff.
Let’s start by defining these terms:
The debt jubilee — an idea from biblical times in which debts are periodically forgiven — involves the government creating a lot of new currency and giving it to debtors, either through stepped-up public spending, tax cuts, or some sort of direct transfer. A more recent term for this is “helicopter money,” which reflects a central bank’s ability to simply drop newly-printed bills out of an aircraft if necessary.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Is This Interest Rate Hike Rigged? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It’s official.This week the Federal Reserve raised the key overnight Fed Funds rate by 0.25%. The move was discussed, debated, argued, and telegraphed to death. We all heard about it until we hoped anything else financial would happen so we could finally put the tired story to rest.
Now that the rate hike is on the books, we can start talking about outcomes, like how in the world the Fed intends to enforce the rate hike, what it means, and what comes next.
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Monday, December 21, 2015
Beware of Central Bank Success / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Michael_Pento
The most important question investors will soon have to face is: "what's going to happen once central banks finally meet their inflation targets?"
For example, let's assume after years of monetizing government debt, bidding up equity prices, and forcing debt on the public by keeping borrowing costs at or below zero; that the ECB is finally able to achieve its inflation target rate of 2%. This would only occur once money supply growth becomes both robust and sustainable. It is silly to believe ECB President Mario Draghi can bring inflation to just 2% and nail it at that level. Inflation will continue to rise past 2% until the ECB raises interest rates by reducing its pace of bond buying. So, we will have the environment where inflation is rising north of 2% and the central bank will be forced to start cutting back its purchases of debt and preparing the market for eventual outright sales.
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Monday, December 21, 2015
Yellen has Lift Off, But Rates Won’t Go To The Moon / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Sam_Kirtley
At the FOMC meeting last week the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2006. This was a historic moment marks the first rate hike after the Fed engaged in massive quantitative easing programs to combat the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. However, we are not economists or economic historians. We run a trading service and are therefore concerned with where the markets will go next. This means that our key point of analysis is around where rates will go next, rather than what they did last week.
Monday, December 21, 2015
Ron Paul - Do We Need the Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Stocks rose Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's announcement of the first interest rate increase since 2006. However, stocks fell just two days later. One reason the positive reaction to the Fed's announcement did not last long is that the Fed seems to lack confidence in the economy and is unsure what policies it should adopt in the future.
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Sunday, December 20, 2015
U.S. Interest Rates Yield Curve Flattening Further, Why it Matters / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Norcini
I am becoming increasingly concerned over the flattening yield curve. This curve enables us to get a first hand view of sentiment towards economic growth among bond investors and other large players in the interest rate markets, some of whom are among the most sophisticated observers of the financial scene anywhere.
Saturday, December 19, 2015
U.S. Fed Mission Accomplished / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
On May 1, 2003 on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln then President George W. Bush, after becoming the first U.S. president to land on an aircraft carrier in a fixed wing aircraft (in a dashing olive drab flight suit), declared underneath an enormous "Mission Accomplished" banner that "major combat operations" in Iraq had been concluded, that regime change had been effected, and that America had prevailed in its mission to transform the Middle East. 13 years later, after years of additional combat operations in Iraq, and a Middle East that is spiraling out of control and increasingly disdainful of America's influence, we look back at the "Mission Accomplished" event as the epitome of false confidence and premature celebration.
Friday, December 18, 2015
U.S. Yield Curve and Spreads: Fed's Real Policy Error in Pictures; What's Next? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds may be interested in a detailed look at the yield curve and spreads between various durations following the Fed's Wednesday rate hike. Let's start with a long-term chart from 1996 to 2015.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Fed Rate Hike - Yellen Nailed It! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
Larry Fink, Chairman & CEO of BlackRock, spoke with Erik Schatzker, Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." He discussed the Federal Reserve rate increase, the possibility of dollar-euro trading at parity, and his economic outlook for 2016.
Fink praised Janet Yellen after the Fed raised interest rates yesterday: "I think she nailed it. It was not too hot, not too cold, right down the center. I think it was a very well scripted conference…And the most important thing, what she gave the market is clarity. I think the opportunity they missed in September, why the markets were so unsettled because we had no clarity on their actions. And in this case they really expressed exactly what they're looking for."
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Marc Faber - Federal Reserve Rate Hike At ‘Precisely The Wrong Time’ / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: GoldCore
Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, warned yesterday that the Federal Reserve has raised rates at “precisely the wrong time.”
Speaking to CNBC just before the interest rate decision, Faber warned that it’s the wrong time because “the global economy has decelerated very badly, and many countries are already in recession, or going into recession.”
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
U.S. Interest Rate Hike Too late, Recession Likely in Next 12 Months - Video / Interest-Rates / Recession 2016
By: Bloomberg
Sam Zell, chairman at Equity Group Investments, spoke with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>." He discussed the expected Federal Reserve rate hike, the risk of a near-term recession, and investor flexibility provided by low-interest.
Zell said: "I think that this interest rate hike is probably 6 or 8 months too late. I think that the economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up."
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Did "Tight" Fed Interest Rates Policy Cause the Financial Crisis? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Robert_Murphy
Recently Senator Ted Cruz aggressively questioned Janet Yellen on the Fed’s possible role in causing the financial crisis and subsequent recession. In particular, he claimed that “in the summer of 2008” the Fed “told markets that it was shifting to a tighter monetary policy,” and that this announcement “set off a scramble for cash, which caused the dollar to soar, asset prices to collapse, and CPI [growth — RPM] to fall below zero, which set the stage for the crisis.” Cruz asked Yellen if she agreed with Bernanke’s view from his new book, in which he says the Fed made a mistake by not cutting rates in September 2008.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
D-Day for Fed Fiat Credit System - Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript Excerpt - December 16 2015 Wednesday it's the day will decide to hike interest rates
that's what most people think it's almost like a done deal so in my opinion
it's the Fed trying to deflate the biggest credit bubble amber and I guess
we don't have to go into details about that we all know that debt and credit
has been the highest ever USA national debt at almost 19 trillion so far it's
more than doubled since President Obama came to power so today will be the first
rate hike since I began its zero interest rate policy or its server or
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Federal Reserve At End Of Monetary Road / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: GoldCore
The all important context for Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade has been examined by the insightful Grant Williams. He is very skeptical of the Fed’s ability to continue to control markets much longer … and this is a gross understatement:
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Have You Considered What Wil Happen If the Fed DOESN’T Raise U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Rodney_Johnson
We’ve gotten it into our heads that Fed Chair Janet Yellen is on her way down from the mountain top carrying stone tablets etched with the details of a rate hike. We don’t know exactly what form it will take, but let there be no doubt – the financial gods have spoken, so a rate hike there will be!But it’s not that simple.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the group that determines monetary policy. This group must reach a consensus on policy changes before anything new can happen.
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