Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, June 04, 2018

Catalyst for the Next Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018

By: Michael_Pento

The cause of the Great Recession circa 2008 was collapsing home prices that led to an insolvent banking system. However, the next economic crisis will result from the bursting of the worldwide bond bubble and its devastating effect on asset prices.

One of the dangers from spiking borrowing costs is the shutting out of distressed corporations from capital markets, which will inhibit their ability to roll over and service existing debt. This will lead to a massive increase in the number of insolvent corporations.

Monday, June 04, 2018

NASDAQ Leading the S&P is a Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Troy_Bombardia

The NASDAQ and S&P are both up this year from January – May. However, the NASDAQ has massively outperformed the S&P by more than 6%.

Here are all the historical cases in which the NASDAQ outperformed the S&P by more than 6% from January-May (while both indexes are positive), and what happens next to the S&P for the rest of the year.

Monday, June 04, 2018

Which Is Developing A Bigger Bubble: Bitcoin Or The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Bubbles in Nasdaq, bubbles in financial assets, bubbles in cryptos . . . bubbles are being reported everywhere. Moreover, more and more analysts are pointing to some financial crisis after another as each day goes by. Whether it is because of the cessation of QE, or because of the issues in Italy, or trade wars, etc., we are clearly not lacking for any reasons as to why this market should crash.

The problem is that most bubble-callers have no objective perspective through which they can determine that any market is in a bubble. As an example, one article I recently read suggests we are in a bubble in the Nasdaq because we have exceeded the 2000 bubble high in the market. Well, along those lines, maybe the Dow should not have exceeded the “bubble high” it struck in 1929!?

Monday, June 04, 2018

Stock Market One Final Pull-back? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 is likely to continue until about early June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, June 04, 2018

Three Key Elements Will Drive Stocks Higher Into Year End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last week was a roller-coaster ride for traders and investors.  After a long holiday weekend, traders were greeted with concerns originating in Italy regarding political stability and the potential that any further issues could result in a collapse of the EU.  Even though the risk of this happening was somewhat minor, the US markets tanked near 2% as fear seemed to override common sense.  The rest of this week has been a wild ride of price rotation within a range.  We’ve been reading all types of news and comments regarding all types of “what if” scenarios from analysts and researchers while scratching our heads at some of the comments.

Sunday, June 03, 2018

The Stock Market Ain't Broke / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

There are some big H&S bottoms on several of the US stock market indexes that I have maybe only shown you once around the time the necklines were broken. When I first discovered them I wasn’t sure they would play out so I just kept them on the back burner to see what would happen.

I’ve mentioned recently how important it is to have a game plan to follow so you know that when the charts change, then your game plan needs to be adjusted to the new information the charts are showing. Sometimes just a little adjustment is all that is needed and as long as your game plan keeps play out you just go with it until something changes.

Sunday, June 03, 2018

Stock Market Short term Downside Limited, Medium-Long Term is Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why the stock market’s short term downside is limited while the medium-long term is bullish.

As always, we go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.

*A recap of this week’s thoughts and market studies.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Phantom Blips On The Stock Market Chart – Don’t Lose Focus - Free Silver! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news seems to have everyone concerned about Italy, global debts, Europe and the potential for a debt contagion exploding into the markets.  Yet, our research into price activity says this market is just getting started with an upside swing that could be massive.  Take a few minutes to review our current research to see why we believe the extended level of fear in the markets is related to the recent February price rotation and a generally accepted erroneous Elliot Wave Count.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Italy Roils Global Capital Markets – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After a fairly solid rally took place over the past few weeks in the US majors, fresh concerns originating from Italy roiled the markets early on Tuesday, May 29.  The concern is really related to the formation of a coalition government in Italy and the excessive debt issues plaguing Italy and many other European Union countries.  In our opinion, the European Union has a number of issues that are rearing their ugly heads and most of these are related to disparities between opportunities, capital flows, debt and consumer optimism related to the parity of the EU economic activities.  In other words, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.  Right now, Greece and Italy are the two squeaky wheels with Portugal, Cyprus and Belgium following right behind.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

What Happens Next When Stock Market Volatility (VIX) Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market’s volatility index (VIX) spiked today from a very low level (from less than 14 to 17).

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

What Happens Next when the Stock Market Consolidates in a Very Narrow Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) has been swinging in a very narrow range over the past 12 days. The range is less than 1% when using CLOSE prices.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

/ Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Stock Market S&P 2700 Key Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 is likely to continue until about early June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Prepared For The Next Leg In The US Stock Markets? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Dan_Steinbock

Ever since the deep price rotation in late January/early February 2018, many analysts have attempted to pinpoint the next moves in the markets.  We recall reading the “doom and gloom” reports telling traders this is the big one and to prepare for a much lower price breakdown.  We also read a few research posts that aligned with our adaptive predictive modeling systems suggesting this move would expand into extended bottoming rotation.  We want to point out a few components of this move that most analysts are missing.

As we continue through this article, we want to highlight the similarities of this recent price rotation to the price rotation that took place in 2015/2016 and how prices advanced in staged “legging” patterns that allowed a great opportunity for traders and investors.

Monday, May 28, 2018

How Do You Make Money on the Stock Market With A Broken Clock? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that are familiar with American football, you would likely understand the strategy that the team that controls the clock usually controls the game.

But, what happens if the clock is broken and the game just keeps going and going and going? Well, it is no different than when an analyst makes a claim that the stock market is going to crash, and makes this claim week after week after week, and does this for months or even years on end. Since there is no time limit to the game, eventually, this analyst can “win” the game.

Monday, May 28, 2018

Economy Still Too Strong to Induce Stocks Bear Market Recession / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The adage “the stock market is not the economy” is true on a day to day and week to week basis. But it isn’t true in the medium-long term. The stock market and the economy move in the same direction over the long term. This means that you can predict the future of the stock market by predicting the future of the economy (fundamentals).

The adage “the stock market leads the economy” is true, but only when you look at the “economy” through the lens of GDP. These charts show that the stock market topped before a recession started in the 4 historical bear markets since 1950.

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Stock Market Study: How Long After a 10%+ “Small Correction” to Make New Highs? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 made a 10%+ “small correction” from January- February 2018. In a previous study I looked at how long it usually takes  for the stock market to go from its correction bottom to a new all time high.

In today’s study I’m going to look at how long it usually takes for the S&P 500 to go from an old all-time high to making a new all time high.

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Gold, US Stocks and Bonds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

I’ll try to keep things simple with this recap of the 3 of the 5 major food groups (leaving aside commodities and currencies) for investors. No confusing you today with too many inter-market ratios, overly technical language or cute metaphors like the 3 Amigos (although it is notable that Amigo #2 is stopping exactly as we’d forecast, as you’ll see in the Bonds segment below).

So let’s take a technical look at a larger picture of the 3 groups using weekly charts for gold and SPX and a monthly for 30yr bond yields, along with some thoughts. We’ll reserve the shorter-term technical management for subscriber updates and weekly NFTRH reports.

Friday, May 25, 2018

What to Expect at a Critical Stock Market Point: End of a Wave 2 Rally / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

"Most investors are convinced that the bull market never went away."

The great game of Wall Street -- where huge amounts of money are at stake every trading day.

Many speculators play this game by watching for events outside of the stock market that they believe will "trigger" the next big move in prices.

Friday, May 25, 2018

Stock Market Distribution Pattern Revealed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX futures were positive overnight until 6:45 am, when the Commercials weighed in. I am illustrating a probable way the Commercials went from -132,091 short contracts on January 22 to -511,373 short contracts last Monday. It has been happening gradually over the past two months since the markets have been thin and getting thinner at each rally.

You may be wondering how over $8 billion went into the stock market last week, yet the entire week was a loss. It appears to be happening again this week. The reason is that, while the market isn’t performing as it had, there is still a fear of missing out (FOMO) of the next rally. Wall Street and the media are still sending out glowing reports about the next rally.