Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 20, 2018
US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
To be clear: the Medium-Long Term Model currently states that:
- The S&P 500 (U.S. stock market) is still in a bull market.
- This 11.8% “small correction” won’t turn into a “significant correction”. Hence the stock market’s medium term downside is limited.
The Medium-Long Term Model predicts “significant corrections” based on a set of conditions. When none of those conditions are met (i.e. right now), it is highly unlikely for a “small correction” to turn into a “significant correction”. This means that the stock market will eventually make a new high given enough time.
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Saturday, May 19, 2018
Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
In light of earnings reactions in the Semiconductor Equipment sector, it’s time for an update of a theme we have had in play since November, 2017
The canary is no longer chirping in a healthy manner and the economy’s coal mine has a toxic gas leak. While the recent Lam Research (LRCX) earnings report was pretty good and there were positive aspects to that of Applied Materials (AMAT), these highly cyclical companies that have been at the front end of the entire economic cycle that had its beginnings in 2013 are showing signs of wear.
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Friday, May 18, 2018
Stock Market Indexes Fill Tuesday Price Gap Now Where? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The 30-minute chart price pattern with a large gap down in price on Tuesday morning created what we call a “Gap Window”. Almost all gaps in the SP500 get filled eventually, and both the top and bottom areas of a gap window become short-term resistance or support.
A three-wave a-b-c correction is generally what causes stop orders to be run, panic selling, and creates a pivot low. This is displayed with a red line on the chart.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
What Happens Next When Small Cap (Russell) Leads the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Small cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) made a new all-time HIGH yesterday even though mid/large cap stocks (S&P 500) are still lagging. The S&P is still 5% below its all-time high.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
DOW Jones and CRUDE Oil on a Cliff Edge, Waiting for a Nudge! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Building Permits, Capacity Utilization Rate.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.
Thursday, May 17, 2018
VIX Cycles Point to Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we authored an article about Fibonacci price levels in which we referred to a term called “Fibonacci Price Ladders”. This is our own term, as far as we know, and we used it as a way to attempt to explain how price operates within the Fibonacci theory. Our objective was to allow the reader to think of a standard ladder and how each ladder rung allows the climber to advance (move up) or decline (move down) using the ladder. We hope it helped all of our readers to better understand the concept of how price rotates within a trend to establish longer-term price trends.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Our Next Stock Market Dow Fibonacci Price Targets – Get Ready! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We can’t believe how so many people did not see this upside price swing setting up over the past few weeks. The research we conducted over the past few months was showing us a very clear picture that the US markets would advance in a dramatic format after settling a price bottom after the early February price drop. We would like to remind our readers to reference this link to see how we called this move months (published January 19, 2018) in advance. To quote our earlier work before the markets made all these moves…
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Stock Futures Are on a Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures are sliding as low as 2720.50 this morning, potentially breaking beneath the rally trendline at 2725.00. This gives the SPX an aggressive sell signal that will await confirmation from the VIX and NYSE Hi-Lo Index. Aggressive signals are subject to drawdowns, so take due care with any new positions.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Stock Market Study: What Happens Next when Dow Goes Up 8 Days in a Row / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone up 8 days in a row (using CLOSE $). What’s unusual is that this is happening before the Dow has hit a new all-time high. These “up 8 consecutive days” events usually happen when the stock market is making new highs.
Here are the historical cases in which the Dow closed higher 8 days in a row, and what happened next to the stock market (Dow and S&P 500).
*This is a rather common event, so we’re only looking at the historical cases in this current bull market, which began in March 2009.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Fibonacci Price Ladder Points to Higher Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We continue to appreciate the positive and supportive comments we are receiving from our followers and members. We can’t tell you how pleased we are that all of you are enjoying our efforts to provide you with the best market research and analysis we can offer. Today, we are highlighting some important Fibonacci price levels and how they should continue to drive price action over the next 3~10 days or so. Let’s get started.
This first Daily ES chart shows a pretty big picture of the Fibonacci price legs (the Fibonacci price “ladder” as we will refer to it in this article) and how these legs work in tandem with other types of support and resistance channels/level as price expands or contracts within new trends. As you probably remember, one of the key factors to understanding Fibonacci price theory is that “price MUST attempt to establish new highs or lows at all times”. Therefore, as we can see by recent price action, new price highs have been reached. This is a clear indication that a new bullish trend is in place and we should now be searching to key levels to enter new trades.
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Monday, May 14, 2018
SPX futures are higher, but so is VIX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures are marginally higher. It’s hard to say whether the trendline gives way or not this morning.
ZeroHedge reports, “S&P futures are higher, maintaining overnight gains as most Asian markets advance with the MSCI Asia Pacific index 0.5% higher, as sentiment was boosted by President Trump unexpected reversal on China telecom giant ZTE over the weekend when in a Sunday morning tweet, Trump vowed to get the Chinese telco back to business in a surprising policy U-turn after the company announced a halt to major operating activities following a US 7-year supply ban order.
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Monday, May 14, 2018
Has The Stock Market Crash Been Put On Hold Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, I wrote an article entitled "The Market Is Going To Crash." The response to that article garnered over 55,000 hits on Seeking Alpha, which is about 4-5 times the reads that I normally get on a stock market update.
This gives me anecdotal insight into where the overall sentiment is in the market today. It seems most investors are leaning quite bearish, and are looking for articles that support their own bearish bias.
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Monday, May 14, 2018
Stocks Bears Last Stand / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should continue until about early June.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, May 13, 2018
Stocks Bear Markets Don’t Start when Real Interest Rates are this Low / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Troy_Bombardia
The biggest fear among bearish investors is that “the Fed hiking interest rates will kill the economy and stock market”. But here’s the mistake they’re making.
Interest rates don’t matter. REAL (inflation-adjusted) interest rates are what matters. Real interest rates are still low right now.
This chart demonstrates the real, inflation-adjusted 10 year yield. It subtracts year-over-year Core CPI growth from the 10 year Treasury yield.
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Sunday, May 13, 2018
Stocks and Bonds Still Only 1 of 3 Macro Amigos to Destination / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It’s the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (in play since we began this goofy metaphor last fall), which would signal macro changes to come. When you are talking about the macro however, things move slowly and to date, only one of our riders has made it to his destination.
To review, they are Amigos 1-3, Chevy, Steve and Martin.
- Stocks vs. Gold
- 10yr & 30yr Yields
- The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve
Saturday, May 12, 2018
Study: Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
In today’s daily post we stated that the NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line (breadth indicator) has made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
Big US Stocks Fundamentals, New Bear Market Awakening? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets are just wrapping up a truly-extraordinary earnings season. Naturally this first quarter under Republicans’ new corporate tax cuts fueled surging profits. But sales were up big too, which is no mean feat for massive companies. With sustained growth at this torrid pace impossible, peak-earnings fears are mounting. And valuations stayed extremely expensive exiting Q1.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs contain the best fundamental data available to investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
What happens to the Stock Market when VIX closes below 14 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Troy_Bombardia
VIX closed below 14 yesterday for the first time since February 1, 2018. This study examines what happens next to the stock market (historically) when VIX closes below 14 for the first time in at least 3 months.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
Stock Market Upside Breakout Pattern to New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since before the start of 2018, we have been relying on our advanced predictive modeling systems, technical analysis and our understanding of the capital markets to help our members take advantage of the incredible price swings in 2018. For those that have been following our calls, we’ve pretty much nailed every market turn over the past 5+ months perfectly and have been able to call many of the tops and bottoms in the markets two to three weeks (or more) in advance. Honestly, do you know of any other research firm that can call marker reversals nearly a month in advance and be correct in timing it?
Thursday, May 10, 2018
How This Classic Market Theory Can Warn You of Big Stock Market Turns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Dow Theory non-confirmations attend the start of every big bear market
Dow Theory is a time-honored market analysis tool. Its name comes from Charles H. Dow, co-founder of The Wall Street Journal.
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