Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 05, 2018
Corporate Profits are Trending Higher. The Stocks Bull Market Isn’t Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we’ve demonstrated here at BullMarkets before, the U.S. economy, corporate profits, and stock market all move in the same direction in the medium-long term.
The final reading for Q1 2018 GDP (released June 28, 2018) demonstrates that corporate profits are still rising. And for all the people who think that earnings numbers are “manipulated” via GAAP rules, these are corporate profits according to the IRS. Fact.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2018
Stock Index Support Zones In Play For Bigger Upside Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we start the July 4th trading week, it is time to look at the current market setup for signs of future strength or weakness. Yes, there is a lot of outside economic and geopolitical factors at play right now that could cause some major market moves, yet we continue to believe the US equities markets are setting up for another upside move after retesting support and shaking out some trades.
Recently, there has been quite a bit of chatter about foreign and US debt levels as well as credit cycle events that many industry leaders are concerned with. Overall, yes, we have to be cautious of a pricing level revaluation as a result of the credit cycles that are changing.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Stock Market Temporary Bottom Set-Up Needs Follow Through / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
By Ricky Wen : The last week of June was quite weak as the stock market continued the downward momentum from the 3rd week by grinding down into the major weekly trending support zone around 2700-2720 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the backtest.
After Monday's steep sell-off, the rest of the week was mostly consolidation within Monday’s range. The main takeaway from the week was that the market made a temporary bottom setup with the nominal lower low at around 2693 on the ES and back into the 2740 area resistance. It is now waiting for some follow through this week, or invalidation if that was not the low.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Negative Expectations, but.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks failed to continue their short-term rebound on Friday and they closed virtually flat. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation, as it remained above the level of 2,700 on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. But was it a bottoming pattern or just some flat correction before another leg lower? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Friday, as the investors hesitated following Thursday's rebound off support level. The S&P 500 index extended its week-long consolidation. It currently trades 5.3% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on the last trading day of the month and the quarter.
Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Bucks “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you probably already know, the stock market’s seasonality is bearish from May – September. That’s where the phrase “Sell in May and go Away” comes from.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Step Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Due to recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may be extending its corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 01, 2018
Stock Market Crash Even if China and the Trump Make Up? Currencies Think So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.
The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Stock Market’s Price Action Starting to Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term is bullish.
- The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
- The stock market’s short term is turning bullish (with Trump’s trade war as a wild card)
Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Trade Tariff War Akin to Raising Taxes, Recession Looms / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.
Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?
Frank Holmes: I'm great, and it's great to be chatting with you about this languishing gold market.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Stock Markets Hyper Risky / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The lofty US stock markets remain riddled with euphoria and complacency, fueled by an exceptional bull. Investors believe downside risks are trivial, despite long years of epic central-bank easing catapulting valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes. This has left today’s markets hyper-risky, with a massive bear looming as the Fed and ECB increasingly slow and reverse their easy-money policies. Caveat emptor!
History proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever. Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses then give up their ghosts. Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse. Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes. All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Stock Market Window Dressing Day / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures went as high as 2737.00 (~2732.00 cash) this morning before pulling back. There is still a probability of the retracement rally probing the mid-Cycle resistance at 2742.03, which is an approximate 50% retracement of the decline. Thus far this quarter has seen nearly a 3% gain in the SPX and today would be an important window dressing day.
Wave [i] of 1 would be considered a Leading Diagonal, while Waves [iii] and [v] appear to be impulsive. There is a cluster of Cycle Pivots starting today and going through the weekend. The first Cycle Pivot occurs around 1:00 pm today.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Traders Buy Markets When They Cry, Sell When They Yell! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have been pouring over the charts to find out what to expect over the rest of 2018 and our advanced predictive modeling tools are showing us a few key elements that all traders need to be aware of. So, let’s get right to it.
First, the NASDAQ has likely neared or reached its peak near 7400 for the next few months. Don’t expect the NQ to move much beyond 7400 and don’t expect a lot of volatility in the NQ over the next few months. Our research shows the NQ should stall near 7400 and volatility should decrease through September (possibly).
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Friday, June 29, 2018
For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
See illustrations of complete bull and bear market cycles
You may have heard pundits on financial television say something like, "I see support for the Dow at this price level," or "This stock should experience some resistance at that price level."
So, what do these analysts mean by support and resistance?
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Thursday, June 28, 2018
More Market Uncertainty as Stocks Keep Bouncing Up and Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes reversed their intraday uptrend and closed lower. Stocks bounced off the support level following Monday's sell-off, but they failed to continue higher. Will the market continue lower today? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.7% and 1.5% on Wednesday, as the investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index remains close to 2,700 mark and it currently trades 6.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%, as it was relatively weaker than the broad stock market on Wednesday.
Thursday, June 28, 2018
Financial, Stocks, Gold, Dollar and Housing Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts Schedule / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Greetings traders and investors.
I am sure you will be aware that the volume of my analysis and forecast postings has greatly diminished over the past year or so due to the impact of rampant theft of my content and collapse in ad revenues due to the widespread use of ad blockers. However, I have some great news in terms of my forthcoming analysis schedule to include detailed looks at the current state of the UK and US housing bull markets, as well as for in-depth updates for markets I have already been covering this year i.e. gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin. And not forgetting a really in-depth look at the prospects for the stock market.
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Thursday, June 28, 2018
SPX Futures Challenge the 50-day and Fail / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures attempted a rally, challenging the 50-day Moving Average, but couldn’t break through. They have since slipped beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline and most likely have triggered that formation. That should send the SPX beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2666.78 and possibly beneath the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation at 2625.00.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Stock Market Studies for July 27, 2018: Amazon, Financial Stocks, China, GE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
- Amazon will probably go up in July
- The financial sector has fallen 12 days in a row. A short term bounce is nearby.
- The Chinese stock market is getting crushed. It will probably fall a little more in the short term.
- GE’s stock spiked yesterday. This is likely a dead cat bounce. GE will probably fall within the next month.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Dow Stock Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – an uptrend is clearly in force and the action since the January 2018 looks corrective in nature. I believe this corrective phase still has more time to play out. Price made a low yesterday at 24084 and while we may see that level tested I favour it to hold for the time being.
Bollinger Bands – price is now back at the middle band I favour support to come in here and send it back to the upper channel for one final downside test which sees price hit the lower band. A move straight down to the lower band is certainly not out of the question and if that were to occur then it probably means the next leg higher will commence earlier than expected.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Dow Breaks Below its 200 Dma. A Potentially Bearish Sign for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Most of our recent medium-long term stock market studies have been bullish. Here’s a bearish study, and why I don’t think it’s as bearish as the results suggest.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed below its 200 daily moving average for the first time in 501 days. This is a pretty long streak.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Will the Stock Market Soar Over the Next 6-12 Months? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term is bullish.
- The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
- The stock market’s short term is a 50-50 bet.
- Small caps will probably continue to outperform large caps over the next few months.
Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.
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