Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 02, 2018
How High Will The Market Rally Before The Economic Collapse Begins? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last week, I wrote an article about how I view the potential effects of an economic collapse on American society. Unfortunately, many of our readers took it as an opportunity to post their perspectives on Trump and the democrats.
Yes, I know the country is exceptionally divided. However, I brought this issue to light not because I see one party as being the savior for this country over the other. Rather, I brought this issue to light to show you that we are on a path of history repeating itself, as we have forgotten the lessons learned from the pain of the past.
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Wednesday, August 01, 2018
US Stock Market Sector Breakouts Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Now is the time for traders to really pay attention to the rotation in the US Stock market as well as the continued price rotation in certain sectors. As we have been warning for the past few months, this really is a stock pickers market. Take a minute to review our past articles highlighting these sector moves and the general market sentiment over the past few weeks: June 24: Could A Big Move In The Global Markets Be Setting Up? & Q2 GDP vs. Technology Concerns vs. Foreign Markets. As traders, we need to understand how capital migrates towards opportunities and safety and how it migrates away from risks and price collapses.
Wednesday, August 01, 2018
What the NASDAQ’s Recent Underperformance Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Troy_Bombardia
Tech stocks had been leading the overall stock market this year (i.e. FANG). However, the NASDAQ’s good fortune has reversed recently, with the NASDAQ now below its 50 daily moving average.
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Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Our Best Stock Market Indicator Is Flashing Yellow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: F_F_Wiley
“Do not fight the Fed!”—Many a market pundit
At one time or another, you’ve surely been advised not to fight the Fed, maybe by the same guy who likes to remind you that the trend is your friend (until it isn’t) and that pigs get slaughtered.
But how should you use that advice during the third year of a tightening cycle that’s currently adding 25 basis points to the fed funds rate every three months?
Is it time to cut risk or even go to cash?
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Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Stock Market Selling on the News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – A correction in the intermediate trend should keep prices above the 2680 level.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, July 30, 2018
US Q2 GDP vs. TechnologyStocks Concerns vs. Foreign Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This past week has been very interesting in the US markets for a couple of reasons. It is time we took a hard look at what to expect going forward and ho in the US. 4.1% GDP for Q2 is massive compared to the previous administrations GDP levels. Granted, these levels may not be sustainable in the long term above 4%, but we can only assume levels above 3% are going to last for a while unless something dramatic changes the economic footing within America.w this news will likely drive future market moves.
First, the Q2 GDP number came in as a huge boost to the US economy and for the future expectations of economic growth
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Sunday, July 29, 2018
The Trillion Dollar Stock Question / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
How many people do you know who are billionaires? Unless you are a billionaire, probably not too many. How many people do you know who run companies worth a trillion dollars?Currently none, but that could change in August.
The last full week of July has presented us with three possible candidates for the trillion-dollar circle; the pinnacle of stock market mountain.
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Sunday, July 29, 2018
S&P 500 vs. Gold (AKA Amigo #1); a Closer Look at Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Not much has changed since the last 3 Amigos macro update. Amigo #2 (long-term yields) has long-since reached the Continuum’s ™ limiter (the 100 month exponential moving average on the 30 year Treasury yield) and Amigos #1 (SPX/Gold) and #3 (the 10-2 yield curve) are still on their respective trends (up for SPX/Gold and flattening for the yield curve), indicating a positive and risk ‘on’ macro backdrop.
Of the 3 wacky riders, with Steve Martin now having gotten home and Martin Short a duller indicator (and lesser light), let’s focus on the Chevy Chase Amigo. There he is on the left, a look of triumphant joy on his face riding one-handed with his arm up in the air. Not a care in the world (as Steve Martin braces for the impact of Continuum’s limiter).
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Saturday, July 28, 2018
Stock Market Continues to Ignore “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As demonstrated in today’s daily market outlook, the S&P 500 tends to experience seasonal weakness from May – September.
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Saturday, July 28, 2018
Trading ANY Market, ANY Timeframe: How to Spot New Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
On July 31, you are invited for a rare, free opportunity to see for yourself how to use simple, everyday price charts to find reliable trade setups -- in any market and any timeframe.
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Friday, July 27, 2018
Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’s not a shade of a doubt that I’m not an expert on tariffs, trade barriers and subsidies, and I’d be the last to suggest any such thing. But I can read. Still, do correct me if I’m wrong anywhere. The whole field is so complicated -no doubt often on purpose- that there’s always the possibility that there are side issues involved for which one would need to actually be an expert.
But still. Now that EU chief Jean-Claude -‘When it becomes serious, you have to lie’- Juncker is due to arrive at the White House soon, I looked at some of the items involved. Last night Trump said that all tariffs, barriers and subsidies should be dropped between the EU and US. Why the TTiP doesn’t come anywhere close to that is anyone’s guess. Too complicated for the boys and girls?
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Friday, July 27, 2018
The Stock Market is Near New All-time Highs. Forward Returns are VERY Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
So far in 2018 we have been consistently on the right side of the market via:
- Focusing on the fundamental economic data.
- Using quantitative market studies to determine whether the market is more likely to go up or down.
The S&P 500 is now within 1% of its all-time highs, while the S&P 500’s Total Return Index (which includes dividends) has already made a new all-time high vs. its January 2018 high.
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
NASDAQ Tech Stocks Index is like 1999 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Troy_Bombardia
Based on the Medium-Long Term Model, this bull market probably has 1 year left. We can confirm this theory through the stock market’s recent price action.
The final rally of a bull market is often marked by “downwards reversal days”. In other words, the market gaps up on the open (exuberant buying) and then falls throughout the rest of the day. We just saw a “downwards reversal day” yesterday in the NASDAQ.
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
Will The Impending US Economic Collapse Usher In Socialism? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Benjamin Franklin was purported to have said “that which hurts, also instructs.” Yet, society, as a whole, has a very short memory. Thus, lessons learned through the pain of generations gone by often are quickly forgotten.
We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression. While I have been told many stories by my grandparents of what it was like to live through the 1930’s and 1940’s, I clearly do not have first-hand experience. Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Chinese Yuan’s Depreciation is Not Bearish for the U.S. Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Chinese Yuan has tanked recently on Trump’s trade war.
Here’s USDCNY (a spike in USDCNY = Chinese Yuan tanking).
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
IS THE BRIC FUTURE ON TRACK - 10TH BRICS Summit at Critical Crossroads / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Dan_Steinbock
Even amid trade wars and eroding global growth prospects, the large emerging BRIC economies remain positioned to surpass the largest advanced economies in about 15 years. The 10th BRICS Summit will take place in Johannesburg, South Asia. Led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the international conference highlights the rising power of large emerging economies in the world economy.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Stocks: When "Sentiment is Strikingly Suited" for a Major Stock Market Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
What an extreme use of leverage tells you about the trend
Stock market history shows that when the Elliott wave model of stock market patterns and market bullish/bearish sentiment indicators are aligned, you have the basis for a high-confidence forecast.
That was the exact situation back in January, right before the stock market's jarring sell-off, from which stocks still haven't quite recovered.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Inflation or Deflation ? Market Drama and Suspense ! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
The big question I’ve been grappling with recently is the inflation or deflation theme. Last Friday’s price action felt like a counterpunch to the deflation scenario as the US dollar fell pretty hard and interest rate reversed. It was almost exactly a year ago around at this time that we started to take some positions related to the inflationary scenario by buying some of the different commodities stocks like BHP, COPX, KOL, UWT, SCCO, SCHN and STLD. Many had broken out of large trading ranges and H&S bottoms. In January of this year when the US stock markets began our recent correction I went to 100% cash as I wanted to be safe than sorry. That was also about the time the US dollar began to find a possible bottom which had pretty much been in a free fall.
Lets start by looking at some US dollar charts as it will most likely be our guide in the inflation or deflation theme going forward. This first daily chart shows the US dollar initially bottoming in late January and then building out the five point rectangle reversal pattern that reversed the downtrend. After a strong impulse move up the US dollar began to correct that impulse leg by building out a rising wedge formation seven weeks ago. IMHO that seven week rising wedge is probably the most important chart pattern on the planet right now. Whichever way it breaks out will affect a lot of markets.
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Tuesday, July 24, 2018
SKEW has Spiked. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The CBOE’s SKEW Index measures potential risk for the financial markets over the next 30 days. When the SKEW Index spikes, conventional “wisdom” assumes that there’s a greater chance of a “black swan” event occurring in the financial markets.
The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. The higher the value, the greater the chance of a “black swan” event.
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Monday, July 23, 2018
Proprietary System Shows Stock Market Rally Could Extend Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The following Weekly charts are illustrations of one of our proprietary price modeling systems that shows trends, market breadth and much more. We use this almost exclusively on longer-term (Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly charts) to help us understand where longer-term support and resistance levels are, where the market ranges are truly important and to determine true market breadth. When we are studying Daily chart or intra-day charts – the shorter term price rotation can often clutter our interpretation of the long term expectations. Yes, we have other modeling systems, predictive analysis systems, Fibonacci systems, Adaptive Cycles systems and more. Our collection of proprietary analysis tools is very deep. Yet, one has to know how to use these tools and what value they can provide at different times.