Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 26, 2018
NASDAQ Tech Stocks Index is like 1999 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Troy_Bombardia
Based on the Medium-Long Term Model, this bull market probably has 1 year left. We can confirm this theory through the stock market’s recent price action.
The final rally of a bull market is often marked by “downwards reversal days”. In other words, the market gaps up on the open (exuberant buying) and then falls throughout the rest of the day. We just saw a “downwards reversal day” yesterday in the NASDAQ.
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
Will The Impending US Economic Collapse Usher In Socialism? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Benjamin Franklin was purported to have said “that which hurts, also instructs.” Yet, society, as a whole, has a very short memory. Thus, lessons learned through the pain of generations gone by often are quickly forgotten.
We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression. While I have been told many stories by my grandparents of what it was like to live through the 1930’s and 1940’s, I clearly do not have first-hand experience. Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Chinese Yuan’s Depreciation is Not Bearish for the U.S. Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Chinese Yuan has tanked recently on Trump’s trade war.
Here’s USDCNY (a spike in USDCNY = Chinese Yuan tanking).
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
IS THE BRIC FUTURE ON TRACK - 10TH BRICS Summit at Critical Crossroads / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Dan_Steinbock
Even amid trade wars and eroding global growth prospects, the large emerging BRIC economies remain positioned to surpass the largest advanced economies in about 15 years. The 10th BRICS Summit will take place in Johannesburg, South Asia. Led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the international conference highlights the rising power of large emerging economies in the world economy.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Stocks: When "Sentiment is Strikingly Suited" for a Major Stock Market Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
What an extreme use of leverage tells you about the trend
Stock market history shows that when the Elliott wave model of stock market patterns and market bullish/bearish sentiment indicators are aligned, you have the basis for a high-confidence forecast.
That was the exact situation back in January, right before the stock market's jarring sell-off, from which stocks still haven't quite recovered.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Inflation or Deflation ? Market Drama and Suspense ! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
The big question I’ve been grappling with recently is the inflation or deflation theme. Last Friday’s price action felt like a counterpunch to the deflation scenario as the US dollar fell pretty hard and interest rate reversed. It was almost exactly a year ago around at this time that we started to take some positions related to the inflationary scenario by buying some of the different commodities stocks like BHP, COPX, KOL, UWT, SCCO, SCHN and STLD. Many had broken out of large trading ranges and H&S bottoms. In January of this year when the US stock markets began our recent correction I went to 100% cash as I wanted to be safe than sorry. That was also about the time the US dollar began to find a possible bottom which had pretty much been in a free fall.
Lets start by looking at some US dollar charts as it will most likely be our guide in the inflation or deflation theme going forward. This first daily chart shows the US dollar initially bottoming in late January and then building out the five point rectangle reversal pattern that reversed the downtrend. After a strong impulse move up the US dollar began to correct that impulse leg by building out a rising wedge formation seven weeks ago. IMHO that seven week rising wedge is probably the most important chart pattern on the planet right now. Whichever way it breaks out will affect a lot of markets.
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Tuesday, July 24, 2018
SKEW has Spiked. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The CBOE’s SKEW Index measures potential risk for the financial markets over the next 30 days. When the SKEW Index spikes, conventional “wisdom” assumes that there’s a greater chance of a “black swan” event occurring in the financial markets.
The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. The higher the value, the greater the chance of a “black swan” event.
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Monday, July 23, 2018
Proprietary System Shows Stock Market Rally Could Extend Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The following Weekly charts are illustrations of one of our proprietary price modeling systems that shows trends, market breadth and much more. We use this almost exclusively on longer-term (Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly charts) to help us understand where longer-term support and resistance levels are, where the market ranges are truly important and to determine true market breadth. When we are studying Daily chart or intra-day charts – the shorter term price rotation can often clutter our interpretation of the long term expectations. Yes, we have other modeling systems, predictive analysis systems, Fibonacci systems, Adaptive Cycles systems and more. Our collection of proprietary analysis tools is very deep. Yet, one has to know how to use these tools and what value they can provide at different times.
Sunday, July 22, 2018
China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
It is not a war of guns and soldiers, but a war of finance.
The Trump White House is aggressively going after China on trade. Every other month we are seeing a new round of tariffs announced on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese exports.
China is retaliating by devaluing the Yuan against the US Dollar at a pace not seen since early 2016. In real terms, the 10% in tariffs the Trump administration will implement on Chinese goods has ALREADY been negated by China’s 14% Yuan devaluation.
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Saturday, July 21, 2018
Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trumponomics in a nutshell can be summed up as a mish mash of policies built on tweets that has surprisingly so far delivered relative stock market strength for the broad US markets this year that has the Dow currently trading at 25,064 marginally up from at the start of the year opening level of 24,720 whilst standing up 7.5% a from its early April low of 23,300. So as the Dow chart illustrates the stock market has refused to FALL this year despite the chaos of the unfolding trade war that has been the focus of the mainstream press for 2018.
Friday, July 20, 2018
Gold Stocks Investment Wanes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s summer doldrums are dragging on this year, with this asset slumping longer and lower than usual. Several converging factors are responsible. The stronger dollar has convinced gold-futures speculators to sell aggressively, and gold’s downside momentum has fed on itself. Investment demand has waned on the resulting weaker gold prices and euphoric near-record-high stock markets, but that should reverse soon.
Summers are usually gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally. So investors and speculators need to be mentally prepared for lackluster or bearish trading action this time of year. Market summers run Junes, Julies, and Augusts. And their first halves are simply devoid of the recurring outsized spikes in gold investment demand seen during much of the rest of the year. Thus gold prices tend to drift neglected.
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Friday, July 20, 2018
Custom Global Stock Market Indexes May Be Sounding Alarms / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past 4+ months, we’ve been working away trying to keep our readers aware of the risks and concerns that were originating out of some foreign markets and how that might relate to the US markets. We remember a point in time back in June or July 2017 when we, suddenly, started receiving emails and calls from moderately large Indian, Indonesian and other foreign development companies asking to schedule time for an “introduction call”. It is not unusual for us to receive cold calls from development firms looking for new projects, but at one point we were getting 2 to 3 calls a week.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were basically unchanged on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the recent rally. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal, or just a quick flat correction before another leg up? Will quarterly earnings releases drive the market higher?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and 0.3% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained pretty bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index reached the highest since the early February, as it slightly extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. It currently trades just 2.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged on Wednesday.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Stock Market Technical Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Christopher_Quigley
No two recessions are ever the same.
One of the best indicators of a possible recession on the horizon is the inversion of the American Treasury interest rate yield curves. Inversion means the yield on short term rates are abnormally higher than long term rates. With Jerome Powell, the FED chairman, publically committed to another two .25% interest rate hikes this year, it is highly probable that by year end the 2/10 year yield curve will have inverted. (Currently the spread between the 2 year and 10 year yield is only .26%). In the recessions of 2000 and 2008 the American economy experienced severe recessions within 22 months and 24 months, respectively, upon yield curve inversion.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Economic Combustion Powering SPX to Test All-Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Mike_Paulenoff
A big-picture perspective of the S&P 500 (SPX) shows that the most recent up-leg off of the June 28 low at 2691.99 has climbed to a new high at 2816.25, or +4.6%. In so doing, the SPX has hurdled its prior two significant rally peaks at June 13 (2791.47) and at March 13 (2801.90), positioning the index for upside continuation to my next optimal target zone of 2845-2860.
Should such a scenario unfold, the SPX, in effect, will be climbing towards a test of its all-time high at 2872.87 from January 26 of this year. Only a break below 2789 will trigger initial signals that the June-July up-leg needs a breather.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging market mine?
This question is timely and worryingly justified in the context of the ongoing Fed’s tightening cycle and the ECB’s shy steps toward normalization of its monetary policy. Historically speaking, the Fed’s tightening used to end with some sort of market crisis, including U.S. recession and turbulences in the emerging markets which rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt (as a reminder, the dollar lending outside the U.S. stands at about $11 trillion today). As one can see in the chart below, practically all recessions in America occurred after the Fed’s tightening cycle.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s “buy the dip” mentality is very strong right now.
The S&P 500’s pullbacks are becoming smaller and smaller, while the S&P 500 has started to break out.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our weekend analysis of the markets continues to amaze our research team simply because we see so many other researchers continue to miss the signals. We’ve been calling this market bottom since the middle of February 2018 and we have stuck to our analysis even though we’ve taken some flack from others about it. Now, with earnings nearly upon us and the markets poised to either breakout higher or rotate lower, our longer-term analysis shows the markets are in pretty good shape for a continued upside rally.
This week, there are 214 companies reporting earnings data. Next week, there are 781 companies reporting earnings data. The following week, another 1003 companies release earnings data. Combined, we are going to have 1998 companies releasing Q2 earnings data and each of these, to some extent, could drive the markets higher or lower as this data is digested.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Treasury yield curve is flattening, which has some investors and traders turning bearish. Most people focus on the 10 year – 2 year yield curve, which is close to inverting.
*Investors and traders only need to be careful once the yield curve inverts. A flattening yield curve on its own means nothing until it becomes inverted.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Jim_Curry
With the action seen in past months, it is time to take a look at what the various time cycles are saying in regards to U.S. stocks - as well as any particular technical indications that track the same.
Short-Term Cycles
In terms of time, as noted in our daily Market Turns report, the short-term cycles projected a trough for the SPX by the June 28th timeframe, plus or minus a day, with the index bottoming out at the 2691.99 figure - made right on that June 28th date. From there, the cycles called for strength into the mid-July timeframe - which we are obviously now into, and where another short-term peak is soon due with the 20-day cycle, though it can easily come from higher numbers than already seen: