Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Stock Market New Low in Store? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Friday, November 23, 2018
U.S. Stock Market’s Volume is Low Around Thanksgiving / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Happy Thanksgiving! It’s important to remember that this week’s volume is very light, so don’t read too much into price action. The price can be easily pushed around by a few big players.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Friday, November 23, 2018
XLY – Don’t Count the American Consumer Out Yet / Stock-Markets / Retail Sector
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The U.S. Consumer Measured Via the XLY
“The U.S. economy is the global economic driver. And within the U.S. economy, the U.S. consumer is the global driver.” James P. Gorman
We’re Entering In Negative Territory for 2018
The stock market (measured via the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average) has officially erased all of its 2018 gains. I can see from the headlines like the one pictured below from The Drudge Report that there’s certainly starting to be a bit of panic in the air.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
China Stock Market Preparing New Elliott Wave Bullish Cycle / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The trade war between USA & China had led to a global fear around the stock market and causing a mid-term “bear market” in China which lost 30% since the start of 2018. The latest plan is that the two leaders US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would meet for dinner on December 1 immediately after the G20 meeting in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires.
Trump says US is ‘doing extremely well’ with China but deal not done yet. Therefore the next meeting could be critical for this ongoing war trade talk and its result will have important effect around the market.
At ElliottWave Forecast, we believe the market is ruled by technical aspect and the news is an after-fact event to drive the market into the pre-determined direction. Therefore, understanding the Nature of the Market is key for traders to stay in the right side and follow a clear path which have nothing to do with Fundamentals or events.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
Roaring Stock Market Rally Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
Stocks have been under selling pressure for the lst 8 weeks and yet the indices continue to be above the key support levels. By most measures the U.S. economy is in excellent health. Yet stocks are sinking, yields on corporate bonds are rising and commodity prices are tumbling—all typical precursors of a slowdown or recession. There are a few reasons which we can immediately forsee. First, while the U.S. is cruising a wave of fiscal stimulus, growth in the rest of the world is slowing. That’s creating problems for companies that do export business. Second, FED is set on a rigid path of raising rates, tightening conditions and reducing balance sheet.
Given the simulataneous actions of ECB and BoJ, we believe has fared way beyond what could have been a much sharper decline. However we are just about 15% from the highs seen this year.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
When Stock Market Computer Herds Hit Exits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
"In a 2010 study of the 2010 Flash Crash, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission found that high frequency traders substantially increased volatility during the event and accelerated the crash...The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the stock regulator in Australia, found in a 2012 study that during volatile markets high frequency traders reduce their liquidity supply and increase their liquidity demands....The Bank of Int'l Settlements looked at foreign exchange markets and concluded in a 2011 study that high frequency traders exacerbate volatility in stressed markets... The UK Gov't Office for Science published a large 2012 study of capital markets around the world and concluded that HFT/AT may cause instabilities in financial markets in specific circumstances.... High Frequency Trading: A Bibliography of Evidence -Based Research, March 2015
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Stock Market Retests October 2018 Bottom. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As per our recent market studies, we said that the stock market would probably bounce and then pullback. Sometimes that pullback leads to a marginal high (vs. the initial low), sometimes it leads to an exact retest, and sometimes it leads to a marginal low (vs. the initial low).
The stock market has made such a retest.
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
Return of Stock, Oil and Forex Markets Volatility / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
Market volatility is back. Forex markets have seen whipsaws as the dollar index tries to price in a weakening US economy and a FED which is raising rates. Stocks have suffered a series of pullbacks this fall that have chipped away at much of their 2018 gains. Downbeat forecasts from former market leaders such as Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. have raised questions over whether the past year’s gains can be justified. Adding to those worries, investors are already expecting a broader slowdown in corporate earnings growth as rising rates and a stronger dollar take a greater toll on profits.
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Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Is A Sharp Stock Market Crash Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve warned for years, and with increasing frequency of late, that the first crash when a major stock bubble of this magnitude finally tops is 42% in the first 2.6 months.
That’s the average of seven bubble crashes in the last century.
The 1929 crash started off with a 49% crash in just over two months – the most extreme.
Look at this correction thus far, compared to 1929 for the Dow…
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Stock Market Buy the Dip is Dead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Here’s today’s big headline from Bloomberg, one that really caught my attention.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Stock Market Going Sideways - Which Direction is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was mixed, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent decline. The S&P 500 index extends its month-long fluctuations along the level of 2,700. Is this some medium-term bottoming pattern?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and +0.5% on Friday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors continued to hesitate following last week's sell-off. The S&P 500 index remains above 2,700 mark after bouncing off the support level on Wednesday-Thursday. The index was 11.5% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 three weeks ago. And now it trades 7.0% below the all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Technical Analysis Points to DOW 30k Next Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An incredible really/breakout pattern is setting up in the US Stock Market and US Indexes currently that many traders/investors may not be paying attention to. This is such an incredible opportunity for traders, we are alerting you to this setup and what we expect to be the outcome based on our proprietary predictive price modeling and analysis tools.
Almost without fail, the end of each year experiences a “Christmas Rally” that results in a moderate bullish price bias for most of the 4th quarter. Over the past 17 years, 76.47% of each Q4 period resulted in an average +1049.85 pts in the YM (Dow Futures Contract). Only 23.59% of the time did the YM decline on an average of about -1039.75 pts. This data helps us to understand that downside price rotation in the Q4 (Christmas Rally months) is possible, but unlikely by a 4:1 ratio. It also helps us to understand that our expectations of a massive price rally, much greater than the average +1049 pts, may be a very big play for traders.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Will We See A 30% Stock Market Correction Due To A Trump Impeachment? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you've been following my analysis of the S&P 500 through the years, you know that we have called the stock market rather well. In fact, we called for the rally to 2100 in 2015, and then expected a pullback from 2100 to the 1800 region as we came into 2016. However, unlike most others at the time, we expected that pullback would set us up for a 40%+ rally in the overall index before we saw a 20-30% correction. In fact, we were calling for a “global melt-up” at the time.
And, for those that remember back to November of 2016, when everyone and their mother was certain the market was going to crash if Trump won the election, we staunchly stuck to our guns and noted that we expected the market to rally strongly “no matter who was elected to office.” And that is exactly what we got, despite the common expectation of a market crash if Trump was elected.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
The Power of the Dow Jones Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
Once again the data confirms cycles exists in the market. Value and other fundamental investors must concede cycles are in the stock market. [You can learn more about our Hurst Cycle tools here].
Previous Post Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility
In the past this blog has posted the chart below, the Kitchin cycle or 900 periods, and you can see its success.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Stock Market Consolidating in a Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish but correcting within that long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
The Time to Prepare For the Next Financial Crisis is NOW / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Graham_Summers
Global growth is officially dead.
The markets picked up on this first, with Copper, Lumber, Industrial Metals and other economically sensitive asset classes collapsing starting in May.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Stock Market Outlook: Why the Economy is Bullish for Stocks Going into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we expected in last week’s market outlook, the U.S. stock market has pulled back after a hard bounce. The S&P 500 has now retraced more than 61.8% of its gains.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Active Managers are Bearish on Stocks. A Bullish Contrarian Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been very volatile lately, swinging up and down more than 1% on many days. During times of high intraday volatility, it’s best to ignore the short term and focus on the bigger picture.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
When This Liquidity Bubble Pops, We’ll Face The Biggest Crisis Yet / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
Debt is a huge a drag on the economy. It’s especially true after it rises over the 80 to 90% of GDP level.US government debt is now 106% of GDP. And if you add state and local debt, total government debt is over 120% of GDP.
Shades of Italy and Greece.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
The Stock Market Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Peter_Schiff
Currently, some market watchers have begun to openly question whether the bull market in stocks has finally come to an end. They certainly have cause to worry. Valuations are frothy after a record run-up in the last few years. Bond yields across the yield curve are rising sharply, as the Fed Funds Rate breaks into territory not seen since before the market crash of 2008. Much higher costs of capital are already putting pressure on rate-sensitive industries such as housing and autos. The boost to earnings provided by the corporate tax cuts will fade and rising prices resulting from past monetary policy and import tariffs may be expected to slow consumption and take a toll on balance sheets. All this points to possible lackluster performance, with stocks essentially flat so far this year.