Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 03, 2018
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is sitting right under its 200 day moving average right now. The stock market is demonstrating various late-cycle signs. These late-cycle signs are not immediately long term bearish, but it demonstrates that the long term winds will change in 2019.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.
Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.
This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The SPX Index is trading within a Blue Box in our system, these boxes are areas in which the Market needs to define whether it will become an Impulsive sequence which runs in 5-9-13 waves or corrective sequence in which runs in 3-7-11 waves. Many traders who follow The Elliott wave Theory understand the idea of 5 waves followed by 3 waves back as shown in the following chart.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting Imnplications for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market. Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global economies and rushed into the US stock market because of a tremendous value opportunity that existed at that time. Technology, Biotech and many others equity sectors were skyrocketing – in some cases 2~3% a month. This ROI, along with the benefit of a stronger US Dollar, created a very unique environment where foreign capital could rush into the US markets, land pretty much anywhere and become relatively safe from foreign risks/devaluation.
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Friday, November 30, 2018
The US Economy is Getting Worse. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. economy is starting to deteriorate, which is what typically happens in the last year of a bull market.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Wednesday following breaking out above their week-long consolidation. The S&P 500 accelerated higher after breaking above 2,700 mark. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just another advance within a consolidation following the October sell-off?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 2.3-3.0% on Wednesday, as investors sentiment much improved following breaking out above the recent trading range. The S&P 500 index got back above the level of 2,700. It currently trades 6.7% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.0% on Wednesday.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,750, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,780-2,800, among others. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,680-2,700, marked by the recent resistance level.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Well that was quick. Less than 2 months ago Fed chairman Powell said that interest rates were “far below neutral” (implying that rates needed to be hiked much more). After the stock market has fallen 10%, Powell now thinks that “interest rates are close to being neutral” (implying that fewer rate hikes are needed).
The stock market rallied on this news.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: F_F_Wiley
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.
We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Graham_Summers
Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.
Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…
1) The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.
2) The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).
3) The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.
4) Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Are We Approaching A "Once-In-A-Century" Type Stock Market Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others -- along with the comments -- to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:
"For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70's, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we approach the final month of this year, it’s worth reflecting on our thoughts and actions over the past year. Reflection is how you become a better investor and trader.
I posted the following chart in December 2017. Interesting how this year’s max drawdown is pretty much inline with the average drawdown of -12%
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Tuesday, November 27, 2018
The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Stock Market Sentiment Improves - Upward Reversal or Just Another Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly extended their downtrend on Friday despite a long-holiday-weekend shortened trading session. The S&P 500 index traded closer to its late October low. Will it reverse upwards off the support level?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.7% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained bearish following the recent declines. The S&P 500 index fell slightly below its Tuesday's local low. It got closer to the late October low of 2,603.54. The index is currently trading 10.6% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Trading Charts and Setups: Chances of a FED Interest Rate Hike Falling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
As equity markets make a topping formation and US 10 year yield retest 3% level, the chances of a FED hike in 2019 is declining. Govt pressure will build up on Powell into 2019 and we believe this will damage FED ability to freely raise rates even if they wish to. We highlight a few key charts and setups to watch out for as you start a new trading week.
2018 has been a difficult years for every single asset class. The mutual fund industry is bleeding and hedge fund managers are struggling to stay afloat. Traditional investment models do not work any more. This is a year in which both bonds and stocks fell together. Traditional models work on shifting money from one asset class to another. However this year, all classes bled. This year, set apart the genius managers from the ordinary. Fxcot trading system which is primarily a EURUSD, USDJPY trading system has made over 90% this year which is truly incredible given the performance of hedge funds.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
These 'Facts' About The Stock Market Will Continue To Get You Whipsawed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late.
As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX.
However, our analysis suggested that the market should bottom in the 2600SPX region, and begin a corrective rally, which then topped at 2815SPX.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
What Is the Stock Market Trying to Tell Us? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, co-founders of Seabridge Gold, explore what’s next for the stock market and how that will affect gold.
First and foremost, valuations are too high. Third-quarter results have been disappointing. Investors are realizing that sales and earnings cannot grow fast enough to keep the market at record valuations.
Second, the stock market is telling us that its advance has been too narrow. . .too dependent upon a handful of stocks driven higher by the herding effect of passive ETF and index investing where the winners win more because they are winners, boosted by their celebrity status than fundamentals. These market leaders have now been rounded up and summarily shot.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Stock Market Approach Neckline / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX advanced during the short holiday week, making a new high and higher low, closing above its weekly Cycle Top at 20.63. Note the Head & Shoulders formation which may give it more impetus in the next week. VIX is also positioned for a triply-indicated surge of strength through mid-December.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Stock Market Short-term Panic! Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast update that we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Most Stock Market’s Around the World are Falling. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has made a 61.8% bounce and now retested its lows, which is the standard pattern for these fast 10%+ corrections. “Drop, pop, and slop”
Now that the stock market has almost retested its exact October 2018 lows, what’s next?
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