Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Worst December for Stock Market Since the Great Depression. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

This is officially the third worst December for the stock market since 1900. The only other 2 times the S&P fell more than -12% in December were 1930 and 1931

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Markets Reject the Fed? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

On Wednesday, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point as expected. The FOMC statement was suitably "dovish" by reducing the consensus forward guidance on future rate hikes from three to two. The Fed also signalled that its Quantitative Tightening program would continue on "autopilot" as planned. The response was not what the Fed expected. Stocks fell hard and bonds soared.

Financial markets are about to revisit some important questions.

First, does QE actually work? Does it boost the real economy or does it simply drive up valuations by encouraging speculation? We think the weakest economic recovery in two generations provides the answer.

Friday, December 21, 2018

Extreme Bearish Stock Market Sentiment. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Bearish sentiment in the stock market is at an extreme right now. For example, the Put/Call Ratio is at its highest level ever. During such times, the stock market can go down more in the short term (when panic sets in, it’s hard to know the exact bottom). That’s why it’s always better to focus on risk:reward and remain unemotional.

Friday, December 21, 2018

Trump-Defying Fed Enters Danger Zone for Economy and Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The Fed blinked – but didn’t flinch away from another rate hike. On Wednesday, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers rejected President Donald Trump’s call for a pause. They raised their benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range up to 2.5%.

The only concession Fed chairman Jerome Powell offered to Trump and nervous stock market investors was a revised, less hawkish outlook for 2019. Powell and company now indicate they intend to hike just twice next year.

Thursday, December 20, 2018

The S&P 500 is Now Wown -15%. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is now down approximately -15%

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stock Market Collapse? Buckle Up, It’s About to Get NASTY / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is expected to hike rates today. However, the bulls are hoping that the Fed will ALSO state that it now expects to hike rates FEWER times in 2019.

Let that sink in for a moment.

The ONLY reason the Fed would hike rates fewer times in 2019 is if the financial system is in serious trouble. So… the best we can hope for is that the Fed gets dovish because things are getting horrific?

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stock Market Alert: The Dikembe Mutombo Continues to Hold! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

A lot of people voice opposition to walls. Funny. There is a wall on the Dow Jones Industrial’s chart.

Yeah, I know. Readers of my blog are shocked that Dow 24k cannot be breached. Again, as former NBA star Dikembe Mutombo used to block shots near the basket, the Federal Reserve certainly does the same in stocks. Specifically, they are currently defending the Dow 24k line with great force and determination. Check my previous blog posts for the DML (Dikembe Mutombo Line) origination.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stock Market ES Sets Up Major Double Bottom Ahead of the Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The downside price rotation in the US markets on Monday, December 17, set up a near-perfect double bottom formation near the 2530 price level and also prompted a dramatic price recovery after reaching these lows.  Currently, the ES has rallied over 35 pts from this low level and will likely pause before the Fed minutes are announced on Wednesday, December 19.

If the Fed holds true to their earlier promises of continued rate increases, we could see this 2530 level broken as price retreats from any relief rally and attempts to find lower support.  If the Fed changes the context of their message and adopts a slower and more insightful rate policy, the markets are poised for one heck of a potential rally.  The ES if down by a little more than 400 points (-13.75%) from the peak in September 2018.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Will US Government Shutdown Cause The Stock Market To Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last Monday, the market dropped over 70 points from its intra-day high to just below 2600SPX, and a reporter on television claimed it was due to the “postponement of the Brexit vote.” Yet, around mid-day, the market began to rally off its lows, and ended positive for the day. But, there was no substantive reason cited for this rally. The same television announcer simply noted that “stocks are rising after a wild day in the market yesterday.” Does that make “wild days” in the stock market a reason for a rally? I guess that is the best they could do when there was no news available to explain the rally.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

The Coming Financial Storm / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped more than 500 points Monday as investors looked ahead to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting amid mounting signs of slowing economic growth around the world. Major indexes opened modestly lower and began a steady descent around midday. All 30 stocks in the Dow industrials and all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower. The declines pulled the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite into the red for the year, while the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks slumped into a bear market--a decline of more than 20% from its Aug. 31 high. And U.S. crude settled below $50 a barrel for the first time in 14 months.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P is now sitting at a 1 year low. And of course, traditional technical analysis states “if the S&P breaks below this support level, watch out below”.

Monday, December 17, 2018

Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday's trading session was bearish, as the broad stock market got closer to its medium-term local low again. Will the downtrend continue today?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.9-2.3% on Friday, retracing their recent advance, as investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index is currently 11.6% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.0% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3% on Friday.

Monday, December 17, 2018

Stock Market Turn In The Tide - Have a Happy Bear Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

Using Charles Dow’s well known method of reading the stock market’s movements , on Friday December 14th 2018 , the averages confirmed a bearish indication and can now be classified to be in a bear market. This action Friday is the first occurrence of a valid bear market signal in 11 years.  Together the Dow Industrials and Transportation averages triggered a bear market signal following a major bull market of unprecedented duration of almost 10 years.  After 10 years of unprecedented monetary and policy intervention by the central banks of the world intending to fuel the bull market, the signal indicates the bull market has reached exhaustion and the primary trend has now reversed.

The implications of such a signal are beyond the ability of the vast majority of citizens to comprehend since a bear market has not been allowed to run its course since December 1974. Furthermore, an entire generation of investors has not even experienced a market in a primary downtrend since as has been 10 years since such an event last occurred.

Monday, December 17, 2018

iShares Russell 2000 IWM Leading Stock Market Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, December 17, 2018

Where is the Dow Stock Market Santa Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

On Friday the Dow closed near 500 points lower at 24,100. So with less than 10 days to go until Christmas there is no sign of the stock market Santa rally.

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Is there a Lump of Coal in Santa's Stock Market Bag? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX eased down to challenge the weekly short-term support at 20.48 on Thursday.  On Friday it bounced to close above its Cycle Top support/resistance at 21.25.  Wall Street doesn’t seem to be alarmed. 

(Bloomberg)  Wall Street is making peace with the new normal of higher volatility as stocks careen between agonizing sell-offs and sudden rallies.
After the gut-wrenching $2.5 trillion wipeout in the S&P 500 since early October, traders are resting at relative ease as they prep for market bumps down the road.

Friday, December 14, 2018

The stock market fails to rally each day. What’s next for stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has been been gapping up on the open and selling off later in the day recently.

Friday, December 14, 2018

How Low Could the S&P 500 Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

Our target for the first half of 2019 is and has been the 2100 to 2200 area for the S&P 500. A friend asked…

I’ve been meaning to ask (and possibly) know the answer, 2100-2200 for H1 2019 is your ultimate bear market target or opening act?

Opening act. It could be the ultimate target because there is a lot of support at that area and a good solid bear phase could put the Fed on ice and impose some changes to Donald Trump’s bull in a China shop policy style.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Will the Arrest of Huawei Executive Derail Trade War Truce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: ElliottWaveForecast

EWFHendra: The market celebrated the trade war truce between U.S. and China after the successful meeting last week between President Trump and Xi. Unfortunately, it only lasted for about 24 hours as news came in with the arrest of Huawei top executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada. Meng faces an extradition to the U.S. on the allegation that she committed fraud to avoid sanctions against Iran. This arrest opens a new chapter in escalating battle between the U.S. and China to gain tech supremacy.

Huawei is the world’s largest telecoms equipment provider and also the second largest mobile phone manufacturer. The founder Ren Zhengfei is a former military officer and Meng Wanzhou is his daughter. Huawei is one of the pillars in China’s ambition to be an independent technology powerhouse. The arrest happened on December 1, the same day that President Xi and Trump had the dinner meeting in Buenos Aires.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

While The Stocks Bulls Fiddle With The 'Fundamentals,' Rome Burns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

In the past, I have outlined why fundamentals look best at market highs, and worst at market lows. And, just like we normally experience, as we were soaring over 2900, I am sure many of you were convinced that this was one of the best economies we have seen in quite some time. But, we seem to have topped on those great expectations.

As the market continued to chop around near the lows this past week, I saw an article entitled “The Steep Stock Market Sell-off Does Not Make Sense.” Within that article, the author highlights the fact that earnings growth remains healthy, the economy continues to grow, and that equity valuation are at the lower end of their historical range.