Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, January 19, 2019

After the Crash, the Stock Market Made a V-shaped Recovery. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P has now retraced more than 50%, which was the standard post-crash target outlined a few weeks ago. The stock market is exactly where it was a few months ago. This demonstrates the stock market’s “bullish bias” – it goes up more often than down. Absent significant macro economic deterioration, it’s very hard for the stock market to keep going down.

Friday, January 18, 2019

Stock Market’s Medium Term is No Longer Bullish. It is Now Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Now that the S&P 500 has reached its 50% fibonacci retracement, its medium term outlook is no longer decisively bullish. As we mentioned before, 13 of 15 historical 20% declines saw a pullback/retest after a 50% retracement.

Friday, January 18, 2019

SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Leaving aside our usual inclusion of macro fundamentals and market ratios, today let’s take a simple technical look at the S&P 500 and gold.

As the US stock market was becoming deeply oversold (and over-hated, sentiment-wise) in December we planned for a holiday seasonal bounce, which finally arrived with the immediate reversal after the Christmas Eve massacre when the machines (and a few human casino patrons) drove it to its downside climax. The bounce was almost a certainty, given the sentiment backdrop of the moment.

Our (NFTRH) view however, has been for an eventual decline from a significant momentum divergence (MACD & RSI) to the obvious support of 2100-2200 (which is also the rough measurement from the bearish pattern) on SPX per this weekly chart. The current market bounce was expected and necessary to rebuild the conditions for enough downside to meet our target.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

S&P 500 at Resistance Level, Downward Correction Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks went slightly up yesterday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term uptrend, before closing just 0.2% higher. Is this a short-term topping pattern or just another consolidation within an uptrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors' sentiment remained bullish ahead of the quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index continued its rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced almost 50% of the downtrend. It broke slightly above 2,600 mark on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% yesterday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is at 2,635-2,640, marked by December the 14th daily gap down of 2,635.07-2,637.27. There is also a resistance level of 50% retracement of the whole downtrend from the mentioned September's record high at 2,643.7. The next resistance level is at 2,675-2,685, marked by the early December local highs. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,580-2,600, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,550-2,570.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

The Fed Caused the Stock Market Sell-Off—but Not with Rate Hikes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: John_Mauldin

I recently argued Jerome Powell did the right thing by raising rates a mere 25 basis points.

He did what Janet Yellen should have done years ago. And for the first time since Volcker, a Fed chair declared the Fed’s independence from the market and politicians.

Besides the Fed’s dual mandate, Greenspan, Bernanke, and, in particular, Yellen had a third unofficial mandate. It was to make sure that asset prices keep rising.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Macro Could Weaken After US Government Shutdown. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P is close the reaching its 50% retracement, which is the standard target before a pullback/retest. After the pullback/retest, what happens next depends on the macro economy. If the macro economy deteriorates, then stocks will keep going down. If the macro economy weakens, then stocks will keep going up. But even if the bull market has more room left, it doesn’t have a lot of room. A 1999-scenario (1 last year of the bull market) is a best case scenario.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

US Stock Market Indexes Reaches Fibonacci Target Zone – Where to Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Near December 21, 2018, our research team began a series of posts indicating the US Major Indexes should be set up for the “Ultimate Bottom” low that we suggested would take place after the US Elections (November 2018) and which would launch an upside price rally.  Today, we are writing to announce that the first leg of this upside move appears to be nearly completed.

It is critical to mention here that as of only a day go the short-term market trend from a technical standpoint has turned up. So, getting long before this point would be trying to catch a bottom which is tough and risky to do. The good news is that we are expecting a second leg higher after we get some rotation to the downside.

Using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system, we can see that the current prices of the ES and NQ are very near to the immediate Fibonacci Price Target Zone.  You will see from the following charts that both the ES and NQ are already within this zone and/or very near to what we believe will be immediate resistance.  This means we should expect a bit of price rotation near these levels before another upside leg takes place driving prices higher.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Stock Market Rig is Ending… Next Leg Down is About to Begin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

This week is options expiration week… Wall Street’s favorite time to ramp the markets in order to insure the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless.

THIS, nothing else, is why the markets rallied this week. Tweets from the President or some statement by a Fed official were simply the excuse Wall Street used to engage in this game.

And that game is now ending. Stocks face TREMENDOUS overhead resistance here.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

What Will the Stock Market Do Around Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has done well throughout the first half of January 2019. With earnings season just ahead and the stock market under its 200 day moving average, the high probability of a pullback/retest remains.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Fiat paper money: Once gold and silver derivatives
Today, instruments of debt issued by central banks

After the 2008 financial crisis, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invoked Milton Friedman’s theory that a helicopter drop of money could prevent a collapsing credit bubble from becoming a Great Depression.

When credit bubbles burst, defaulting debt and disappearing demand cause the velocity of money to plunge; and, in 2008, Bernanke resorted to Friedman’s untested theory hoping to prevent the US economy from collapsing as it did in the 1930s.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Traders Ltd. is issuing new analysis which indicates the US and global markets may be poised for a dramatic upside price swing over the next couple.  Recent events have driven asset class values to new valuations that may change the dynamics of markets for a few months.  Prior to August/September 2018, many traders were fearful of the expectations of the US Federal Reserve, Global Trade Issues and the US Elections. Combine this with the end of the year liquidity issues and the threat of a US government shutdown over the wall funding and we have almost a perfect storm brewing for uncertainty and fear.

Monday, January 14, 2019

S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Stocks were little changed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. Will the short-term uptrend continue? Or is this still just an upward correction before another leg lower?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advance. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. It continued its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58 recently. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got very close to 2,600 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Is the Stock Market Recovery Rally Nearing Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My article last week, "Tale of the S&P 500 Tailwind," came on the heels of the Emini S&P 500 (ES)'s rally of 100.75 points (4.1%) off the 2019 low and 53.25 points (+2.1%) above the Christmas week close. On its face, the advance was impressive, but recall that I qualified my enthusiasm, stating the following:

"In the aftermath of the Christmas Upside Reversal, last week ES (e-Mini March S&P) traversed a range from 2438.50 to 2539.25... and ALL OF IT occurred on Friday (1/04/19) after Jay Powell acquiesced to the wounded easy money masses, appearing to become a kinder, gentler, and more investor-sensitive Fed Chairman."

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Stock Market Looking Toppy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Liquidity, Money Supply, and Insolvency / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Andy_Sutton

Liquidity is becoming of central importance once again. It is frequently mentioned in mainstream media articles, interviews, and ‘educational’ programs.  It was a central point of discussion during the financial market blowout in 2008.

The killing off of a little-known (until it was dead!) data series earlier this year by the not-so-USFed has gotten the beehive buzzing once again about a liquidity crisis – or the possible aversion of one in the short term. It has also gotten things buzzing about the longer term as well.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Devastating Investment Losses Are Coming: What Is Your Advisor Doing About It? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019

By: Nick_Barisheff

I hold financial professionals who recommend monetary gold to their clients in the highest esteem. It is their sage advice that will protect investors from the unprecedented dangers they face today in the markets. However, many advisors are no longer permitted to recommend physical gold or precious metals in client portfolios as a result of the new rules defining risk in mutual funds. Many clients who had been holding gold for years were forced to reduce their positions last year by their investment advisor’s dealer. The timing for this couldn’t have been worse, as the resulting rise in their gold holdings would have reduced the losses in their portfolios from the market carnage we have witnessed since late September.

Friday, January 11, 2019

Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: FXCOT

Investors think recession risk is quite high. This, though, raises another question: Since investors have access to the same news and data as the Fed, how can they know the economy better than the Fed? Economist Jesse Edgerton of J.P. Morgan has found that economic data has a better record of predicting recession than the yield curve and right now, the data sees lower odds than the yield curve. Short-term interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and long-term rates by bond market investors. The curve has been flattening for the past two years as the Fed has slowly raised short-term rates in hopes of a “soft landing,” a slowing in growth that keeps both unemployment and inflation low and stable. But in recent months the flattening has been driven by falling bond yields. The usual interpretation: Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.

Thursday, January 10, 2019

What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Axel_Merk

The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.”  You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.

It all starts with the Fed... In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Reserve (Fed) because they provide an anchor for the price of risk-free assets (Treasuries) around which risk assets are priced.1 When rates were near zero and the Fed purchased Treasuries, it wasn’t only Treasury yields that were depressed, but the Fed pulled down yields of risk assets as well. Differently said, the Fed made it appear as if risky assets were less risky; this didn’t only affect bonds, but also equities that enjoyed years of rising prices on the backdrop of low volatility. This was the era of compressed risk premia.

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.

Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.

The gaps are interesting and among several possibilities for 2019 we could see fear, loathing and a fill of the lower gap (a greed gap of sorts) prior to a filling of the upper gap, which could blow out the stock bull in manic fashion one day. Relax, it’s just one of several possible road maps. For now, we simply state that SPX/Gold reached a very viable target and dutifully dropped with the market stress.

Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Warning: This Stock Market Rig is Going to End Terribly / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

This is getting old.

The PPT is now juicing Oil higher, because doing so relieves stress in the junk bond market (a large percentage of junk bond issuers are shale companies that require higher Oil prices to be profitable).

This, in turn, is sending a “all clear” signal to stocks, inducing algos to buy indiscriminately.