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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Quite a few traders have been discussing the recent rally of Bitcoin to recently breach the $10,000 level on May 7, 2020.  This psychological price level is a major milestone for Bitcoin – even though the price has fallen into an extended Flag/Pennant formation since reaching the recent peak.  Many traders and speculators are expecting Bitcoin to rally alongside the precious metals sector as there appears to be a strong belief that Bitcoin aligns with precious metals well.  Our researchers attempted to put this assumption into a simple test and this is what we found.

Bitcoin appears to be similarly volatile in comparison to precious metals, although the overall trending of Bitcoin has been moderately lower since the peak levels in February 2020 whereas the Gold/Silver sectors have seen advancing price activity over the same span of time.  Precious metals rallied much quicker after the bottom near March 2020 whereas Bitcoin didn’t really begin to rally until late April 2020. Because of this disconnect in price association, we don’t believe Bitcoin is aligned with the precious metals segment. 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market

Intermediate trend Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent “melt-up” in the US stock market after a moderate downside price move in early May 2020 has set up a number of technical patterns that traders need to pay attention to.  This melt-up trend may continue for a bit longer, but price levels and actions are beginning to set up very clear patterns that warn of potential weakness in the future.

First, no matter how we attempt to spin the data, the US economy is very likely to fall into a moderate recession after the COVID-19 virus event has created a world-wide economic event and the recent riots and protests all across the US continue to disrupt and destroy property, businesses, and other assets.

It is almost like a one-two-three series of punches leading to a TKO.  We have the virus event, the stay-at-home orders, and now the riots and protests.  Recently, the National Guard has been called out to support local law enforcement and to protect people and properties. From our perspective, the situation is very far away from stable economic activity/growth supporting current stock price activity/levels.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: John_Mauldin

A stock market crash wasn’t 1929’s only big event. Coca-Cola (KO) launched a new slogan: “The Pause That Refreshes.”

Coke’s marketers sensed the economy was headed down. How do you sell a completely unnecessary beverage to a struggling country? It’s simple, really: You remind consumers that treating themselves is important, too. 

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 01, 2020

The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger considers what the post-pandemic world could look like in the aftermath of central bank actions. As I sit here on the shores of lovely Lake Scugog, its weed-infested waters lying in wait for countless unsuspecting propellers soon to be ensnared, I am reminded of the failed world of central banking and policy initiatives, which too has become ensnared in flora of its own making—a floating algae bloom of debt, deception and intervention.

Following this metaphor apropos, there is nary a dock with twenty miles of Port Perry that is navigable without encountering an impassable wall of goose droppings. Being Canada's favorite bird, these creatures are the height of ornithological fecal incontinence. Sadly, as a "protected species," citizens are prohibited from causing them not only any harm, but also inconvenience (as in shooing them off your property), resulting in spoiled lawns and malodorous decks and gazebos. When I see a flock of these flying manure sacks about to land on the lake, I am once again reminded of politics, where unelected officials are paid to engineer policies of unknown outcome and uncertain consequence, but where the result will be despoiled surroundings, economic disaster and odors of the foulest origin.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 29, 2020

Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high.  Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the US stock market was 12% to 15% overvalued based on our ADL results.  Today, Tuesday, May 26, the markets opened much higher which extends that true valuation gap.

We understand that everyone expects the markets to go back to where they were before the COVID-19 virus event happened – and that is likely going to happen over time.  Our research team believes the disruption of the global economy over the past 70+ days will result in a very difficult Q2: 2020 and some very big downside numbers.  Globally, we believe the disruption to the consumer and services sector has been strong enough to really disrupt forward expectations and earnings capabilities.  We’ve been warning our friends and followers to be very cautious of this upside price trend as the Fed is driving prices higher while the foundations of the global economy (consumers, services, goods, and retail) continue to crumble away.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Many stock market investors believe that prices have already bottomed. Numerous banks, brokers and financial firms have issued statements saying as much.

Indeed, the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has offered analysis of financial and social trends since 1979, noted:

On April 28, Bloomberg interviewed four money managers to answer the question of "Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now." Cash was not mentioned.

All these professional financial observers might be right in their assessment that the bottom is in for stocks.

Then again, the stock market rise since the March 23 low might be a bear-market rally.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

Many stock market investors believe that prices have already bottomed. Numerous banks, brokers and financial firms have issued statements saying as much.

Indeed, the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has offered analysis of financial and social trends since 1979, noted:

On April 28, Bloomberg interviewed four money managers to answer the question of "Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now." Cash was not mentioned.

All these professional financial observers might be right in their assessment that the bottom is in for stocks.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Precious Metals Hit Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector may have begun a correction on Wednesday. 

The miners (GDX, GDXJ) sold off after reaching significant resistance levels while the metals are trading just below significant resistance levels. 

We mentioned these targets in our article last week.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system has called some incredible moves over the past 24+ months.  It predicted the moves in Gold moving from $1340 to $1750 – including many of the trend changes that took place over the past 15+ months.  It predicted the collapse in Crude Oil back in July 2019 – even calling for a sub-$20 price collapse in March/April 2020.  Overall, the abilities of this unique predictive modeling tool have been nothing short of incredible.

For many weeks, we’ve been suggesting the US stock market has entered a no man’s land after the bottom setup near March 20, 2020.  The US Fed and global central banks have stepped in to attempt to support the markets and to take pressures off financial institutions and consumers.  These efforts presented a very real opportunity for technical traders to attempt to “ride the Fed wave” over the past 3+ weeks. Right now, things appear to be a bit more fragile going forward into the Summer months and the ADL predictive modeling system is showing us what to expect.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Tuesday’s refusal of the stock upswing didn’t really stick, and the S&P 500 opened higher. Trading with an upward bias during the session, the index closed comfortably above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As outlandish as it might seem, does it denote a new bull market being on the way? It just can’t be overstated how crucial this level is to the stock market outlook…

S&P 500 in the Short-Run

Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 25, 2020

Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As technical traders and researchers, we’ve been paying very close attention to the GREEN ARC Fibonacci resistance level on the SPY as a key level for the US stock market and any hope of a continued upside price rally.  The SPY has traded near this level for the past three weeks and appears to be attempting a bit of an upside breakout right now.  Yet, we understand a long holiday weekend is upon us in the US, Memorial Day, and after a big upside GAP on Monday, the US stock market has stalled over the past few days.

Our researchers believe this GREEN ARC is still acting as critical price resistance and believe the SPY may sell off into the end of the week resulting in a failed attempt to breach this key resistance level.  If this happens, the failed attempt to break this resistance could prompt a change in price trend and initiate a new downside price trend.  If this resistance level is broken by the end of this week, then we have a pretty solid indicator that continued bullish price trending may continue.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 24, 2020

Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market

Intermediate trend Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Kelsey_Williams

The 21st century was ushered in by fears about Y2k and how it might impact computer programming that was already in place. Part of the concern centered on the financial markets.

The Federal Reserve announced that they were ready to support the stock market and provide backup for financial institutions that might encounter difficulties.

The big day arrived and, other than an occasional glitch that seemed to be unrelated to the heightened global fears, the birth of the new century was pretty much uneventful. Overall, the markets remained relatively quiet. However, trouble was still brewing.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 21, 2020

An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

People across the entire planet remain very much aware of the COVID-19 health threat.

The global disruption associated with the pandemic far surpasses other major health scares in modern history.

Even so, you may recall 2009 news articles similar to this one from the New York Times (June 11, 2009):

It came as no surprise [on June 11, 2009] when the World Health Organization declares that the swine flu outbreak had become a pandemic.

The disease has reached 74 countries ... .

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My last analysis focused on the unfolding economic consequences of the corona catastrophe that really should never have happened. Instead due to gross incompetence and negligence of our governments we are rapidly descending down a black hole the depths of which we can only guess at, as economic contraction numbers for Q2 range from -20% to -40% for the UK and the US. For worse than anyone could have imagined even a few weeks ago as the gauge of possibilities were mostly centered around the Financial Crisis of 2008. Where this crisis apparently looks set to be many times worse! ALL courtesy of the headless chickens in charge with their mad scientists advising them.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Yesterday’s session did away with the non-confirmation of last week’s reversal from the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Junk corporate bonds lent their support to the stock upswing, and the S&P 500 closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Will the bulls be strong enough to confirm the breakout, or is a correction next?

S&P 500 in the Short-Run

Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):

Steadily rising in the runup to the start of the US session, stocks opened with a sizable bullish gap. And they haven’t looked back since, closing on high volume above the key resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Reflecting the upswing, the daily indicators turned largely supportive.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Short-term Analysis

The uptrend off the March 23rd low appears to be tiring, running out of steam, as evidenced by the MACD that is showing early signs of starting to roll over after having unwound ALL of it's earlier over sold state. So as I warned last week the Dow does appear to want to go lower rather than higher in the immediate future.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Global Market Insights You Need to Know Now / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: EWI

Hi,

You want your portfolio to make it through this crisis in one piece. Maybe even gain, if at all possible.

But the opinions you're hearing are all over the map. There is no precedent in modern investment history.

So, our friends at Elliott Wave International have offered up a free resource to help.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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