Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Stock Markets Rolling Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to have turned precisely at 9:34 am, 86 market hours after it reversed from its low on September 29. There was a combined PC/TC low due on October 1, so the bottom was 2 days early. It is possible that the perception that SPX could not make a new low that drove the buyers back into the market at the end of September. Once it took hold, the market took off.

Sunday is scheduled as a Primary Cycle high, so the turn is expected. Despite the aggressive nature of the call, you may wish to go 50% to as much as 100% short at this juncture. The market may linger her for the rest of this morning, but I don’t think that the retail options will do as well as the Index option fared this morning.

Friday, October 16, 2015

The Most Important Thing in the World / Stock-Markets / Taxes

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

As I write this, I am watching the Mets play the Dodgers and not watching the Democratic debate. I can catch the highlights on Twitter. I am half expecting someone to propose a tax rate of over 100%.

Something I’m sure will be suggested at some point is a financial transactions tax, a tiny tax placed on every single financial transaction: stocks, bonds, and derivatives.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Stock Market Bearish Topping Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Another Orthodox Broadening Top appears to be forming. Whether it makes a new high or not, it appears to be valid and has a potential target of 1532.00.

A reversal here that has not formed a new high has a 65% probability of follow through to the downside as it reverses from the top. Those are fair odds for a short position, although I would still call it an aggressive one. The odds of failure of this formation drop to 4% beneath the lower trendline at 1985.32. That corresponds to the 50-day Moving Average, where the sell signal in SPX would be confirmed.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

The Third Wave of the Global Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2015

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Massive artificial stock, bond wealth will be looking for a place to go. By the time Goldman Sachs published its widely referenced warning of a third wave in the global financial crisis (mid October), the physical precious metals' markets were already feeling the strain of very strong demand against a rapidly dwindling supply. China, the country seemingly at the epicenter of the developing emerging market crisis, by itself had taken 911 tonnes of gold off the market in the first half of 2015 – a number when annualized that represents nearly two-thirds of the world's mine production. India, another of the so-called BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) was a strong second at 400-500 tonnes. In the Occident, gold demand was strong, but silver demand was even stronger. Global mints were reporting off-the-charts demand for silver bullion coins. Coin premiums were on the rise in extremis at one point reaching almost $6 per ounce on the popular silver American Eagle.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signals in Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has finally reversed beneath its trendline. This morning was a false break, due to a small Megaphone formation that resulted in a new high. It is now on an aggressive sell signal.

I re-calibrated the Primary Cycle Pivot dates and, although there was a PC Pivot on 10-6, the turn was made today, 4.3 market days later. In fact, the Cycle Top happened on a PI Hour (67.5, which is divisible by 3.1416 and 4.3). This would be expected from a rally that has a Megaphone ending and a Wave (B). Wave B of any degree may be a rogue wave in outliving its expectations. Investors are still bullish, despite only exceeding Wave (A) by only 1.52 points. In Elliott Wave parlance, this is a flat correction, due to the flat top.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

1987 Stock Market Crash - The Day the Dow Puked / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Ed_Carlson

Readers who have received a copy of this month's Lindsay Report are aware of the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a high on Oct 19 (a high, not the next high). The "high" on that date may be the end of a short uptrend or it may be the end of a consolidation that precedes a sharp drop in equities.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Stock Market Initial Projection Reached (Short-Term Top Expected) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market?

Intermediate trend - SPX is in the midst of an intermediate correction (at least).

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

German DAX Stock Market Index Expected To Go Lower / Stock-Markets / Germany

By: Gregor_Horvat

German DAX fell sharply down this summer so we see price in big wave IV) pullback which could reach much lower levels by the end of the year, but after wave (B) rally is complete which seems to be underway now to higher levels. Ideally price will hit 10800 before downtrend will continue into wave (C).

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Gold for Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Axel_Merk

While some continue dancing, the music might have already stopped: are we already in a bear market in stocks? In this context, we study past bear markets to see whether gold may serve as a valuable diversifier for what's ahead.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Stock Market Holding Below Breakout....Bullish Action Overall... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The stock market plays games with the heads of the traders out there. For a good period of time it will not be able to move higher, and then out of the blue, things reverse and it simply can't fall very much. It transitions and fools the masses over and over, but isn't that its intentions! You bet it is. To keep you guessing and getting frustrated time after time. The house usually wins as we all know.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Stock Market S&P 500: Is it This Simple? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

In an age of Algorithms, High Frequency Trading, Quant-injected performance engines and every Casino Patron with an e-Trade account hyper-stimulating the market after each bit of news that is fed (no pun intended) to us by the financial media and Policy Central, the lowly individual can be forgiven for feeling small and vulnerable; for feeling as if the answers are beyond her, or that long-term success is out of his reach.

Indeed, this very publication has ground its gears pondering the fact that August-September market sentiment became historically over bearish in ratio to the relatively minor downside experienced thus far. That was a bullish, not a bearish thing. With sentiment now being repaired it is time to ask if we are giving the bulls too much latitude.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Stock Market Waiting for the Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX Premarket is down a fraction. That means we have to give it a little more room fefore the reversal. Equities may rally to 11:00 am or shortly after to have rallied for 60.2 hours from the low. Since the decline was 56 hours, it makes sense that a rally, no matter how strong, will take a bit longer. In addition, there is some unfinished business because Minor Wave C has not yet equaled Minor Wave A, a common relationship. To do so, it would have to rally to 2025.76.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Stock Market One Step Back From the Ledge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Michael_Pento

I started Pento Portfolio Strategies three years ago with the knowledge that the unprecedented level of fiat credit creation had rendered the globe debt disabled and would result in mass global sovereign default. As a consequence, there would be wild swings between inflation and deflation dependent upon the government provisions of fiscal stimulus, Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policies...

Monday, October 12, 2015

Structural Reasons For A Long-Term Financial Markets Decline / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Raymond_Matison

Markets advance and decline for a myriad of different reasons. But in the final analysis, the old maxim about more buyers than sellers making bullish markets, and more sellers than buyers making bear markets remains true.  Unfortunately such a simple observation is neither insightful nor helpful. However, by adding detail to this old market truth we can get great insight into the future of our current and future financial markets.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Stock Market / GDX New Lows Coming: Panic Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The stock market came back with a vengeance out of the late September low (5- week lows), but failed to come back evenly, creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. The Dow Industrials, NYA, OEX and SOX made a higher high above the September 17th top on October 9th, but the SPX and NASDAQ Comp failed to do so. The SPX came close but the Comp failed miserably. In charting terms, we have just created a "double top" and hence a 'double top reversal' is at hand. Normally, it runs a Fibonacci .333 to .382 past the previous low (1871 SPX) and that forecasts ideally somewhere between or near 1780-96 on the SPX within the next 5-6 TD's.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Stock Market Gains, but the “Super Crash” Is Accelerating / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: MM

MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: The lunatics are running the asylum.

After an incessant flow of bad economic news from both the U.S. and abroad, investors decided that "bad news is good news" and they should bid up stock prices.

Saying "bad is good" is like saying "down is up" or "Hillary is telling the truth."  It is so obviously contrary to the facts that you can't take it seriously.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

October Stocks Bear Market and Crash Killer / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We are now well into October, which is THE month for stock market doom and gloom to prevail. This is the month when the perma stock market crash proponents are at their most vocal when they dust down and repost ancient charts of previous crashes such as 1929 and 1987 and more recently 2008, to once more proclaim that history is about to repeat and a stock market crash is imminent. Though this time its even worse than usual because even those who may have been 'mostly' bullish threw in the towel several weeks ago to at least conclude that stocks bear market had begun.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Stock Market Primary V to New Highs Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 1951. After a gap up opening on Monday morning to start the week, the market made higher highs and lows every day ending the week at SPX 2015. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.5%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.5%, and the DJ World index gained 4.4%. Economic reports for the week continued their neutral to negative bias. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the WLEI, GDPn and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM services, consumer credit, export/import prices, the MMIS and the trade deficit expanded. Next week, a busy week, we get Industrial production, the FED’s Beige book, and Retail sales.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

A Week Where Pessimism Ruled.... Stock Markets Rally.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

Pessimism has been rocking in over the past two months. Step by step we've seen more and more bears come in, while more and more bulls run out. Shorting positions dramatically on the rise. Fewer and fewer people are talking as if the market can actually go up again. So naturally the market had a nice week to the upside, closing at overbought on the short-term charts for good measure. Shows how much pessimism and short interest can do for the short-term, if not a bit longer than that. The bull-bear spread started the week at minus 4%. It was probably close to zero or slightly green, but still a solid number for the bulls.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Stock Market Rally May be Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

At 9:59 am the SPX made a failed attempt at a new high, missing by 95 ticks. It appears to be coming back down and may break the uptrend at 2010.00. SPX regains its sell signal below the 50-day Moving Average at 1993.78.

The reason I brought up the time element is that it is exactly 51.6 hours from the low on Sept 29.