Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 27, 2020
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Short-term Trend Analysis
The bubble that was the Dow's early year bull run has well and truly burst with the Dow literally crashing to a low of 24,700, and if it wasn't for the Coronavirus than the Dow would still have fallen to trade down to a low of about 27,500. Instead we have gone beyond that which technical analysis can determine, hence my continuing heavy focus on the Coronavirus trend which on the 27th of February concluded in expectations for the Dow to fairly quickly trade down to about 25,500 that it soon sliced through during it's multi day crash.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The much-anticipated upswing continuation came yesterday, and the bulls certainly fought hard to keep up the upside momentum. To what degree have they been successful with most of the intraday gains evaporating before the closing bell?
The intraday volatility is high and offers many opportunities to profit on both long and short positions. And that’s certainly what we did earlier this week, cashing in a 168-point gain on Friday-opened short position, and two more profitably closed positions (both were long trades) yesterday for an 82- and 52-point profit respectively. In total, that’s 302-point gain this week so far!
But going into the employment data later today, how does the technical outlook look like right now?
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Friday, March 27, 2020
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out. We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time. Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.
As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity. If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
With hoops “out” and exponentials “in” (referring to March Madness, the 2020 pandemic definition), there’s a new, customary disclaimer on economics and financial sites. Mine says that I, too, knew nothing about infectious disease modeling only two months ago. But I’m catching up, just like everyone else. By now, I might have reached a “Dummies Guide” standard, and I’ll keep this article at about that level.
So with that preface out of the way, I’ll first offer a health warning of sorts about a type of COVID-19 chart that’s popular with market bulls. Here’s a version that appeared in the New York Times:
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is the Stock Market discounting the Coronavirus yet?
Well what will be effect on the stock market when we see start to see the numbers of infected virtually doubling every couple of days over the coming week, especially as unlike China the US is not going to hide the numbers of infected.
The markets look at the numbers, they want to see the number of infected stabilising and then DECREASING on a daily basis, and NOT DOUBLING every couple of days!
Therefore this implies we are going to continue to experience a bearish trend trajectory for at least March and likely April, despite Fed panic actions, as it now looks like my estimate of 13,000 US infected by the end of March gave way too much credence to US healthcare and CDC competency, instead both have proven to be seriously lacking i.e. closer in performance to that of Iran than South Korea!
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson: Today, we will find out if there is a crisis response for your investment portfolio. Joining us for a conversation is legendary investor Rick Rule of Sprott USA.
Rick Rule: Maurice, thank you so much for having me on. These are really interesting times, and it's fun to address your audience in times like these.
Maurice Jackson: Sir, it is an absolute privilege to have you on our program during these extreme global market conditions. Speculators want to find out what you're doing as a crisis response and what actions they may take on their portfolio under these current market conditions. From your perspective as one of the most highly regarded credit analysts in the world, was this financial collapse inevitable?
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: First phase of correction nearly over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Ellen_Brown
In what is being called the worst financial crisis since 1929, the US stock market has lost a third of its value in the space of a month, wiping out all of its gains of the last three years. When the Federal Reserve tried to ride to the rescue, it only succeeded in making matters worse. The government then pulled out all the stops. To our staunchly capitalist leaders, socialism is suddenly looking good.
The financial crisis began in late February, when the World Health Organization announced that it was time to prepare for a global pandemic. The Russia-Saudi oil price war added fuel to the flames, causing all three Wall Street indices to fall more than 7 percent on March 9. It was called Black Monday, the worst drop since the Great Recession in 2008; but it would get worse.
On March 12, the Fed announced new capital injections totaling an unprecedented $1.5 trillion in the repo market, where banks now borrow to stay afloat. The market responded by driving stocks 8% lower.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Saturday, March 21, 2020
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
My friend Ben Hunt wrote two weeks ago that we were in a period of “don’t ask, don’t test.” He has been extremely critical, and rightly so, about the slow response in getting tests available.
When we actually start testing at scale, I suspect we will find a lot of people have the coronavirus. My extremely informed sources consider it quite reasonable to expect 100,000 people in the US will test positive in a relatively short time.
The mainstream media will breathlessly report each increase and their locations and what is happening at the local hospitals. How do you think people will respond as the number of cases approaches 100,000 with no sign of slowing?
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Friday, March 20, 2020
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, I was asked to participate in a live radio talk with Arnold Gay and Yasmin Wonkers at Money 89.3 Asia First and was sent the following questions to prepare for the show. I thought this would be a great way to share my thoughts and expectations related to the Covid-19 virus, global economics and what the Central Banks are doing to combat this virus economic event.
The reality is that the bottom in the markets won’t set up until fear subsides and the unknowns related to this virus event are behind us. Until then, the global markets will attempt to seek out the true valuation levels based on this fear and the unknowns. This means true valuation could be much further away from current price levels as the virus event is still very fluid in nature.
I’ve included a few of our custom index charts to highlight exactly where the markets are currently situated and have attempted to explain my thinking related to these charts. Please continue reading.
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Friday, March 20, 2020
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The last few days have been like nothing most of us have ever experienced – or are likely to experience again in our lifetimes.
Panic has spread from the streets of Wuhan to the grocery stores of America’s heartland, from nursing homes to the Federal Reserve Board, from the stock market to the gold and silver markets.
Like other asset classes, the precious metals space is being rocked by rapidly accelerating developments, some of which haven’t occurred for decades and some of which haven’t occurred ever.
These unprecedented times are testing the mettle of precious metals investors like never before.
Thursday, March 19, 2020
CORONAVIRUS - Here Be Dragons, 'Hic Sunt Dracones' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold explains why he believes the world is in uncharted waters.
We have sailed off the map of the known world into totally uncharted waters. No one, including me, knows exactly where we are or where we are headed.
But hic sunt dracones is an excellent warning, here be dragons. If I was still flying and needed to give a brief to my passengers, I'd be saying, "I have some good news and some bad news. First the bad news. We have flown off the edge of my maps and we are totally lost without a clue as to where we are."
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Thursday, March 19, 2020
Coronavirus Market Crisis - Nowhere to Hide! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger breaks down the latest market moves and charts a "course of action."
As I begin the weekly missive here on Thursday, the U.S. equity markets are experiencing the worst daily assault since that fateful day back in 1987, when the Dow lost 23% in a single trading session, sending thousands of Gucci-clad stockbrokers to the Sears re-fit aisle. Being the incredibly prescient individual that I am (tongue firmly planted in cheek), I have attempted four times since 6 a.m. to put words to paper, and four times I have deleted every paragraph and no fewer than ten different charts.
I have tried humor, I have tried humility, I have tried hubris, I have even tried cheerleading. Alas, at the end of the day, I am proceeding on the premise that followers of my work want a simple opinion on one thing: tactics. What are the tactics that I intend to employ to show a positive return for the year 2020? (Subscribers will have my blueprint in the subscriber section, which may be accessed at this shamelessly offered e-mail address of miningjunkie216@outlook.com.)
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Thursday, March 19, 2020
Uncharted Market Territory? No - complimentary webinar from EWI / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: EWI
Hi,
There's a lot of misinformation in the financial news right now.
You have questions. Now get answers.
On Friday, March 20, at 1pm ET, our friends at Elliott Wave International will present a special webinar by their Global Markets Strategist, Brian Whitmer. Brian will present indicators that have stood the test of time and are critically important to investors at a time like this.
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Thursday, March 19, 2020
How COVID-19 Leads to 2008-Style Bank Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: Patrick_Watson
The COVID-19 virus is pushing an economy that was already approaching a cliff. Will it go over the edge?
Probably. And the Federal Reserve lifeline is wearing thin.
I have to admit, I didn’t foresee this. Six weeks ago, I said 2020 would probably bring continued low growth. Then I noted several brewing crises that could cause major problems. A pandemic wasn’t on my list.
But then, using the impeachment trial as an example, I added…
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
The Chartology of Coronavirus Deflationary Event / Stock-Markets / Deflation
By: Rambus_Chartology
The great debate on whether we’re going to see inflation or deflation has been answered in spades. For years some of the greatest minds of our time have discussed this issue in great detail with each side giving probable reasons as to why we’ll see either inflation or deflation. Both sides can make great points to their arguments but in the end only one side will win the battle that has been raging on for years. While the fundamentalist argue their points I’m going to show you from a Chartology perspective the true story of what is taking place in this great debate.
In this Weekend Report we’ll look at some short, intermediate and long term charts for the US dollar and some commodities indexes to paint a picture of what millions of investors, from around the world are actually doing with their money. These investors leave their mark on a chart that show up as short term battles to longer term wars that can last for years. These battles and wars create chart patterns that define the winner and looser of each encounter.
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Wednesday, March 18, 2020
The Stocks Bear Market Is Upon Us... Or Not / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have to tell you that the last 6 months in this market have been the most unusual of my career as a public analyst. And I tried warning many of you of the potential, yet most chose to deride my perspective, as many got suckered into the biggest fake-out I have ever seen in the market.
In my analysis published on emerging markets back in early February entitled “Sentiment Speaks: Emerging Markets Look Sick,” I warned that EEM presented us with a chart that looked truly bearish for 2020. Moreover, I had been warning members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that IWM has not confirmed the breakout we saw in the SPX for several months. It was for this reason that I was unwilling to aggressively play the long side in the equity market, at least until IWM proved otherwise.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast Number Crunching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This is one of those articles that are packed with resources showing your what to expect for various assets both long-term and short-term and will guide you through these volatile times and this year.
Our friends and followers continue to contact us asking what to expect and what should they be doing with their assets and trades? Our research and analysis have been very clear up to this point; we warned of a Zombie Rally in early November and early December 2019, we warned that Oil would fall below $40 on November 15, 2019, and we warned of a global Black Swan event on January 26, 2020.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
This Will Signal the Stocks Bear Market's Halfway Point / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
On March 12, the date the DJIA closed lower more than 2350 points, the U.S. chief equity strategist for a major financial firm appeared on Bloomberg after the market close and opined that "90% of the damage has been done."
He went on to affirm that if an investor's time horizon is longer than two weeks, then yes, the stock market plunge represents a good buying opportunity.
Well, if that's the sentiment after the DJIA had shed more than 28% (through March 12), then the downturn may have ways more to go than just another 10%. In other words, such financial confidence is usually not the prevailing sentiment near the end of a bear market.
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