Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
High Degree of Risk in Overvalued Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Christopher_Quigley
The markets continue to remain overvalued, with a high degree of risk. A quick recovery is priced into every major index and if this should prove incorrect, expect a serious correction. I anticipate October will be crunch time.
If earnings guidance indicates continued recessionary conditions (negative GDP growth) and if results in the American Presidential election results are too close to call, I reckon there will be a swift re-pricing of all equity and bond assets. Either way, I suggest investors be ready and prepared, come the third quarter, for all eventualities.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader’s historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.
Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.
And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those ‘man who predicted a new market crash now predicts… (blah blah blah)’ headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2020
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday’s key data point were the non-farm payrolls. Horrendous and coming in at minus 20,500K, they surprised on the upside. After their release, stocks continued adding to their overnight gains, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our previous bullish points turned out correct, but the key question is how strong is this rally? Can it power through this key resistance that is reinforced by the early March bearish gap?
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Monday, May 11, 2020
The Great Stock Market Disconnect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – re-testing April high
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, May 10, 2020
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis is the final part in my following series of analysis -
- Rabbits in the Headlights
- Paving the Way for War with China
- The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History?
- Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE!
- UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
- US Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
- Stock Market Implications and Forecast
The whole of which was first made available to Patrons who support my work: Is the Stock Market Correct to Ignore The Great Coronavirus Economic Depression?
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Sunday, May 10, 2020
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many months ago, our research team suggested any future collapse in the global markets would likely prompt a global capital shift in how capital identifies and is deployed for ROI. We’ve continued to suggest that the more mature, global economies will become beneficiaries of any massive global collapse event and that capital will actively seek out security and safety while attempt to attain moderate returns. We suggest reading this past research post on global central banks moves to keep the party rolling.
In 2019, we predicted a major Super-Cycle event would take place on or near August 19, 2019. We believed this event would prompt a major downside price rotation that would prompt a shift in how capital is deployed throughout the world’s financial markets. At that time, and still, we believe a long-term price cycle event is taking place which will prompt a deeper price bottom event that will likely complete near August or September 2020. This raises an interesting setup related to Technical Analysis for skilled traders…
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Sunday, May 10, 2020
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: Submissions
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Saturday, May 09, 2020
Right Now, the Bullish S&P 500 Ride Goes On No Matter What / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday, we’ve pointed out the many bullish signals going for stocks, and saw them open higher, and extend their gains. Well, that was true about the first half of the session, as the S&P 500 returned to trading close to unchanged before the closing bell. Is the upswing over now?
In short, we doubt that.
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
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Friday, May 08, 2020
3 Things to Watch When the Stock Market Fed Jet Fuel Runs Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
Main Street needs customers. The Fed, for as much as it is trying to flood the markets with money, can’t create them.
And yet, the jet fuel has succeeded in pushing stock benchmarks and valuations back near their old highs. Clearly, and probably rightly, investors are willing to look past the second- and possibly even third-quarter earnings, which everyone acknowledges will be dismal.
But what happens when earnings are dismal in the fourth quarter?
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Friday, May 08, 2020
Stock Market Bears Running Out Of Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as a ‘gap up and go’ structure that faded in the final few minutes of regular trading hours (RTH). If you recall, RTH opened at 2863.25 after Monday’s closing print of 2827.5 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), so it was a +1.2% gap up. Then price action continued in the trending direction for the majority of the day, forming higher lows and higher highs as the northbound train goes towards the immediate targets.
However, the bears made a counterattack around 2889.75 high, which was right near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2965-2771 range, and swiftly backtested into our key support of 2850 by the end of the day.
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Friday, May 08, 2020
Technical Analysis Points To Key Reversal Of Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we received a number of email messages and comments regarding our recent Bitcoin article and how we attempted to explain the market trend/technical analysis. It appears we were not making our interpretation very clear for our friends and followers. This article should help to clear up our interpretation of the major market trends and our advanced technical analysis tools and utilities.
As purely technical traders, there are certain things we want to make clear. First, we do pay attention to what is happening to the fundamentals and global economic data when it posts. We’ve authored many previous articles stating our belief that “capital is like a living/breathing entity which attempts to survive (generate ROI with little risk) in various global market environments”. In order for us, as technical traders, to identify real opportunities for superior trades, we must be aware of what is happening in the “environment” that surrounds us.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Quantitative INFLATION - Fed QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Once money printing starts it never ends! Instead what happens is any unwinding of central bank balance sheets tends to be temporary in advance of the next crisis which tends to send balance sheets through the roof. This has been my consistent message for the past 10 years since Quantitative INFLATION began in 2008! And so the corona crisis has seen the Fed once more flood the markets with liquidity buying up all sorts of assess left right and centre from junk bonds, to stocks of bankrupt corporations to of course government bonds, and when the buying is done the Fed will likely have DOUBLED it's balance sheet from $4.2 trillion a couple of months ago to approaching $9 trillion!
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Money Printing is the New Mother's Milk of Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
My friend Larry Kudlow always says that Profits are the mother's milk of stocks. That used to be true when we had a real economy. But sadly, that is no longer factual because we now have a global equity market that is totally controlled by central banks. To prove this point, let's look at the last few years of earnings. During the year 2018, the EPS growth for the S&P 500 was 20%; yet the S&P 500 Index was down 7% over that same time-frame.
Conversely, during 2019, the S&P 500 EPS growth was a dismal 1%; yet the Index surged by nearly 30%. What could possibly account for such a huge divergence between EPS growth and market performance? We need only to view Fed actions for the simple answer: it was the degree to which our central bank was willing to falsify asset prices.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Another Stock Market Selloff Could Drive More Bullion Buying / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Investors got a look at first quarter GDP, and it wasn’t pretty. The U.S. economy contracted by 4.8%, even worse than the 3.3% decline anticipated by economists.
In addition to that bad news, 4 million more Americans filed for unemployment last week. More than 30 million people have lost jobs over the past 6 weeks, and the situation is only getting worse.
The S&P 500 lost 2.8% on Friday.
Perhaps equity investors are beginning to wonder if share prices, which have moved relentlessly higher in recent weeks, accurately reflect the dismal economic data.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
This Stock Market Makes No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
The title to this update is likely the most repeated phrase you have heard over the last month from market participants and analysts alike. As more and more bad economic news is presented through the media, somehow, the market just keeps grinding higher.
I think this picture taken from one of Jim Cramer’s shows expresses the disconnect best:
Doesn’t the market understand what everyone else clearly “knows:” we are heading into the next Great Depression?
As I have always tried to make people understand, the stock market and the economy are not one and the same. Rather, there is a reason that the stock market is considered the best “leading indicator” for the economy. And, it is purely because market sentiment (the true underlying driver of the stock market) is seen in action much quicker within the stock market as relative to the fundamentals within the economy, which take time to catch up to the market action.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2020
SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
Early 2020 the fear was the human race 'David' may suffer terribly under a frightening new flu (COVID 19) 'Goliath', well after few short months it is now clear the human race will win this trial by combat.
Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review
In the previous post the blog said (part 1)
.."We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does not always play out."...
Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Fed Cuts Equities Stimulus 86% This Week and Stocks Are Falling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
What happens to the global markets when the US Fed begins to weaken stimulus activity and when the global markets must begin to function on their own? Are the global markets capable of sustaining current price levels without the Fed supporting them?
A recent news article suggests the US Fed has drastically slashed stimulus activity over the past 5+ days. From a peak level of nearly $600 Billion a week to current levels near $83 Billion per week – a -86% decrease. How will this reflect in the market’s ability to sustain current price levels in the face of disastrous Q2 expectations? Yup, markets are falling fast and hard going into the weekend as expected!
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Stock Market Hit Resistance and Fell, Transportation Sector Forms Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, the Transportation Index and the S&P SPDR ETF setup topping patterns near the end of April 2020. In terms of technical triggers, these patterns need to see additional downside price confirmation before we can confirm the true potential for these setups. If they do confirm, we could be starting a new downside price trend fairly soon.
The recent market upside price move is dramatically different on the TRAN chart vs. the SPY chart. Even though the SPY price advance has mirrored the move in the ES and NQ, the TRAN upside price move has been more muted. This is because global economic activity has continued to stall and is not translating into active shipping and trucking activity. Remember, the Transportation Index helps us to understand the core levels of economic activity as parcels and products move around the globe.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Stock Market Resuming the Major Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – resuming decline?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, May 04, 2020
Stock Market “Fundamentals ? It’s ALL in the Chartology” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonight’s Precious Metals charts I would like to make a comment on the US stock markets. I will take some flack over some of the comments I’m going to make but that’s fine as it won’t be the first time nor the last.
Let me start by saying, “The only rule when it comes to trading the stock markets is, “There Are No Rules.” The other important rule that I live by is that, “the markets are always right regardless of what I think.” It’s interesting to hear comments like, the markets don’t trade like they used so its not any fun anymore. Even trading during the mania phase in the tech bubble parabolic rise wasn’t easy. Or the markets can’t keep going up because of no volume or interest rates are too high or countless other reasons that only make sense according to traditional investing.
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