Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Stock Market S&P 500 ADL Predictions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020.  This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction.  From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction.  This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.

Please take a moment to review our original ADL article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggests-us-markets-12-over-valued/

In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels.  The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event.  It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

The AI Stocks Mega-trend - Moores Law is NOT Dead! / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is finally showing signs of heading for a significant correction after bull run that has seen AI sector stocks retrace virtually all of their corona crash, with the Dow closing sharply lower Thursday to 25,128 that looks like targeting a trend to 23,000, so apt timing for this my latest analysis that seeks to answer why the number one priority for investors should be to accumulate into AI mega-trend stocks, and why one should embrace plunges in the stock market as buying opportunities. Though the tendency to wait for corrections before climbing onboard the AI mega-trend could result in fundamental errors that investors could come to regret for decades to come which is the primary focus of this article that seeks clear away the fog of future uncertainty to map out a trend for AI stocks and to a lesser extent the general stock market indices over the next 15 years!

Monday, June 15, 2020

Staying Cautious & Staying Prepared With You Stocks Trading Account / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past 30+ days, our researchers have been warning our friends and followers to stay cautious and to consider the risks within this market trend.  Certainly, we’ve received some emails and contact from some people suggesting we should become more active, but we’ve also received many emails from members that feel we’ve kept them safely removed from the volatility and risks associated with this wild price rotation during these uncertain times.  Additionally, we’ve been able to grow their accounts at the same time.

One of the reasons we’ve been able to accomplish this is because our research team identified a major supercycle event that was likely near August 2019 and continued to warn our members of this potential event well ahead of the projected event date.  We also issued a Black Swan warning on February 21, 2020 warning all of our members to “get into cash” and to prepare for a very big price event. 

Friday, June 12, 2020

Stock Market Shift Away from Safety Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

Sector performance or strength can tell an enormous amount about how Mr. Market is feeling.

In Chart 1, from early December to late February, the four classic safe haven sectors (precious metals, bonds, U.S. dollar and utilities) were all outperforming the benchmark S&P 500.

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

What Huge US Jobs Number Means For Your Market Positions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Huge Non-Farm Payroll number released on Friday, June 5th, shocked the market.  A massive 2.5 million jobs were created in May 2020.  If you were paying attention to the data, you’ll also understand that 1.87 million new jobless claims just last week.  In fact, over the month of May 2020, a total of 12.58 million jobless claims were filed.  Taken into consideration, the new jobs created in May represent less than 20% of the total job losses over the same span of time.

Our researchers believe the jobs number is representative of a phased reopening of many US states and correlates directly with the extended opportunity for further re-engagement of the US economy over time.  The current social unrest taking place throughout the US will likely result in a new spike in COVID-19 cases as well as extended losses for certain businesses. 

The rioting seems to be taking place in more populated states right now – which suggests some real concerns for many of these states in regards to scheduled reopening phases and the potential for a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

New Stocks Bull or Same Old One? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

 SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.

Intermediate trend – Up from March 23,2020.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Central Banks Have Jumped the Shark, May Even Buy Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento president and founder of Pento Portfolio Services. Michael is a well-known money manager, market commentator, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years, and it's always a pleasure to have him on with us.

Michael, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.

Michael Pento: Thank you so much for having me back on Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well, Michael, it's been a few months since we've had you on last and just a little bit has been going on in the world. COVID-19 has hit the states to say the least and caused major disruptions in the economy. Governors have instituted stay-home orders. Tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now we're seeing major rioting and social unrest in many cities throughout the country over the police killing of a black man in Minnesota last week.

Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Investors Confused as Governors Spur Protests While Keeping Others Locked Down / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: MoneyMetals

A violent and chaotic week in America’s cities was met with little apparent concern on Wall Street. For the most part, the stock market continued on its merry way higher.

Precious metals markets, meanwhile, are giving back some of their recent gains.

It’s no surprise that silver encountered some resistance at $19. In fact, on May 26th we had pointed to that very level being the next important target for silver in weekly Money Metals News Alert we send out via email every Monday morning.

Monday, June 08, 2020

Think Coronavirus Caused the Stock Market Crash? These Two Charts Beg to Differ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Just about everyone thinks the coronavirus pandemic slammed global stock prices in February and March. Entire countries shut down; businesses closed up shop; unemployment soared. People stopped spending money beyond the essentials, so conventional wisdom would indeed expect stocks to slide as a result. Yet consider the below chart of the Shanghai Composite, China's primary stock index.

Monday, June 08, 2020

Russia: How Financial "Complacency" Morphed into "Crisis" / Stock-Markets / Russia

By: EWI

It's been a tough year for Russia financially.

Of course, there's been the big collapse in oil prices, plus -- just like many other global stock indexes -- Russian stocks are well off their highs.

That's quite in contrast to 2019, when the RTSI index, a U.S. dollar-based index of 50 Russian companies, climbed 29%.

Shortly after registering that performance, Elliott Wave International's January Global Market Perspective, a monthly publication which covers 40-plus worldwide markets, showed this chart and said:

Saturday, June 06, 2020

Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My analysis of Late April concluded in expectations for a correction to about 21,000 by the 3rd week of May.

Saturday, June 06, 2020

Is the Stock Bulls' Cup Half-Full or Half-Empty? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Neither on Monday, nor on Tuesday did we see strong volume, but prices rose regardless –is it time to bet the farm on higher stocks right next? As quite a few yesterday-mentioned reasons to be cautious were resolved bullishly, the buyers' case got stronger.

S&P 500 in the Short-Run

Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):

Friday, June 05, 2020

Rigged Markets - Central Bank Hypnosis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger bemoans the panic-inducing influence of politicians and the influx of "counterfeit currency" from central banks on the money and commodities markets.

One look at the chart of the U.S. financial markets against the backdrop of economic paralysis and suffering, and one is immediately filled with a myriad of emotions. Sympathy for those that have been afflicted by the most recent pandemic; fear for the families whose primary breadwinner is now unemployed; confusion toward the proper course of action going forward; and finally outrage at the abject timidity of our citizens in responding to the orders laid down by these insipid politicians in response to the crisis.

As the welfare of future generations hangs in the balance, its tentativeness the direct result of government ineptitude, I keep asking myself a critical question: "When did the backbone of our people turn to mush?" If someone holding political office had told my grandfather to stop ploughing his fields or tending to his livestock because a sickness was spreading throughout the community, that charlatan would have wound up with buckshot adorning his gluteus maximus. How dare any group of elected bureaucrats ordain the shutdown of an economy? Telling citizens to "stay home" and "avoid contact" was tantamount to telling my grandfather to cease and desist in providing for his family. That he should shutter the ploughs and the reapers and the milking stations, that his sons and daughters need not feed the chickens or slop the hogs because the government was going to "protect them" from harm? Well, not only would promises like that go unheeded by the generations that preceded us; they would be treated with the utmost of distrust and the vilest of response.

Friday, June 05, 2020

Stock Market Grinding Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Ricky_Wen

Monday’s session was an inside day within a potential inside week/high-level consolidation context. Basically, the regular trading hours (RTH) session was confined to a 3059-3027 range on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), which is about 1%. In addition, as you may be aware by now, the average range per day has been narrowing for the past few weeks due to this methodical grind up and slower momentum when compared to Feb-April 2020. As previously discussed, the recent action is very similar to year 2019 as we’re seeing flashbacks from all the market tendencies of the easier overnight grind up and then chop around during RTH. (Nowadays, most gains have been made during globex vs RTH, hence easier setups during the overnight.)

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events.  Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric.  The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar – yet still important for our researchers.

The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets.  Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Quite a few traders have been discussing the recent rally of Bitcoin to recently breach the $10,000 level on May 7, 2020.  This psychological price level is a major milestone for Bitcoin – even though the price has fallen into an extended Flag/Pennant formation since reaching the recent peak.  Many traders and speculators are expecting Bitcoin to rally alongside the precious metals sector as there appears to be a strong belief that Bitcoin aligns with precious metals well.  Our researchers attempted to put this assumption into a simple test and this is what we found.

Bitcoin appears to be similarly volatile in comparison to precious metals, although the overall trending of Bitcoin has been moderately lower since the peak levels in February 2020 whereas the Gold/Silver sectors have seen advancing price activity over the same span of time.  Precious metals rallied much quicker after the bottom near March 2020 whereas Bitcoin didn’t really begin to rally until late April 2020. Because of this disconnect in price association, we don’t believe Bitcoin is aligned with the precious metals segment. 

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market

Intermediate trend – Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent “melt-up” in the US stock market after a moderate downside price move in early May 2020 has set up a number of technical patterns that traders need to pay attention to.  This melt-up trend may continue for a bit longer, but price levels and actions are beginning to set up very clear patterns that warn of potential weakness in the future.

First, no matter how we attempt to spin the data, the US economy is very likely to fall into a moderate recession after the COVID-19 virus event has created a world-wide economic event and the recent riots and protests all across the US continue to disrupt and destroy property, businesses, and other assets.

It is almost like a one-two-three series of punches leading to a TKO.  We have the virus event, the stay-at-home orders, and now the riots and protests.  Recently, the National Guard has been called out to support local law enforcement and to protect people and properties. From our perspective, the situation is very far away from stable economic activity/growth supporting current stock price activity/levels.

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: John_Mauldin

A stock market crash wasn’t 1929’s only big event. Coca-Cola (KO) launched a new slogan: “The Pause That Refreshes.”

Coke’s marketers sensed the economy was headed down. How do you sell a completely unnecessary beverage to a struggling country? It’s simple, really: You remind consumers that treating themselves is important, too. 

Monday, June 01, 2020

The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger considers what the post-pandemic world could look like in the aftermath of central bank actions. As I sit here on the shores of lovely Lake Scugog, its weed-infested waters lying in wait for countless unsuspecting propellers soon to be ensnared, I am reminded of the failed world of central banking and policy initiatives, which too has become ensnared in flora of its own making—a floating algae bloom of debt, deception and intervention.

Following this metaphor apropos, there is nary a dock with twenty miles of Port Perry that is navigable without encountering an impassable wall of goose droppings. Being Canada's favorite bird, these creatures are the height of ornithological fecal incontinence. Sadly, as a "protected species," citizens are prohibited from causing them not only any harm, but also inconvenience (as in shooing them off your property), resulting in spoiled lawns and malodorous decks and gazebos. When I see a flock of these flying manure sacks about to land on the lake, I am once again reminded of politics, where unelected officials are paid to engineer policies of unknown outcome and uncertain consequence, but where the result will be despoiled surroundings, economic disaster and odors of the foulest origin.