Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Stock Market Out on a Limb... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The time expended on the decline to 2638.17 at the close on February 5 was exactly 43 hours. That was the evidence that I had led me to believe that it was the end of Wave (1). The opening gap at 2593.07 on Tuesday February 6 appeared to be a Wave B. That allowed me to believe that Wave (1) had finished. What appeared to be an extra Wave now turns out to be the finish of Wave 3. There are multiple factors going into this re-write of the Elliott Waves. The main one is that the 50% retracement of the entire decline to February 9 is at 2704.99. Today’s high is 2701.86. It appears that an A-B-C rally from the low is complete, as well.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Stocks, Bonds on the Edge... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The last couple of days have been testing our patience. The 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 has been surpassed and the SPX futures are making marginally new retracement highs. I feel compelled to say that the cautionary levels for SPX is the 78.6% retracement at 2685.00.
ZeroHedge observes, “As we previewed earlier this week, only one number matters for the markets - both stocks and bonds - this week, and it will be released at 8:30am this morning, when the BLS unveils the January CPI print, dubbed by various trading desks as "the most important CPI print ever", with every trader, both carbon and semiconductor based, focusing only on whether core CPI comes at 0.2% as expected, or higher. If it's the latter, TSY yields will spike - conventional wisdom goes - while the second leg of the equity rout could be unleashed. Inversely, if the core CPI disappoints, we may see a sharp move lower in 10Y yields and the dollar, while stocks prepare to retest all time highs.”
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Is Stock Market “Short Volatility” Blow-Up Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
The markets have changed and many are going to get “taken to the cleaners.”
Last year, 2017, was a not a normal year for stocks. Stocks as an asset class are not meant to go straight up without even a 1% pullback. But that is precisely what happened for nearly an entire year.
Now that massive market rig is over. And anyone who continues to invest as though it’s 2017 is going to get annihilated in the coming weeks. The only thing that stop an all out crash in stocks was clear and obvious intervention in the markets by Central Banks.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is “letting the stock market go.”
As I’ve outlined multiple times, if the Fed has to choose between supporting the bond bubble or supporting stocks, it will choose bonds Every. Single. Time.
The fact is that in a debt-saturated world such as the one we live in today, if stocks collapse, investors and Wall Street get angry. If bonds collapse, entire countries go bust.
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Stock Market is Getting Scary... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today was a bit of frustration. The SPX wouldn’t go down, but it didn’t go higher, either. Tomorrow appears to be gearing up for a big down day. Wave relationships suggest that possibly both the Head & Shoulders and Broadening Wedge targets may be reached in the next two days. Do the math. That’s approximately a 20% decline from here.
Mike (Mish) Shedlock comments, “Interbank lending took a historic dive. Readers ask "What's happening?" Let's investigate.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Axel_Merk
“Don’t panic, buy the dip, who cares?” or “These are rumblings of an earthquake, people will be hurt like in 1929” - which one is it? I would call it a wake-up call. Let me explain:
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
SPX Futures Are Sliding... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are sliding as the decline begins to take hold again. SPX retraced 71.7% of Wave 1, mainly due to the stop hunt that was done to wipe out the shorts. This constitutes a near 50% retracement of the entire decline. Most Elliotticians are still looking for a 61.8% retracement, as they believe that Wave (1) had concluded on Friday.
The reason w only got a 53.5% retracement on Wave (1) is because virtually no one was short until the 50-day Moving Average was crossed. Thus we see this rebound making the 61.8% retrace, as more traders were willing to go short, but with stops.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Plunger
Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years. An explosion of volatility normally is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic and has been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle. The trading over the past 7 market sessions fit a classic pattern of market panic which corrects the excesses of a market which just completed an upside climax and had been without correction for close to two years. I believe this panic is now over and the muscle memory of buy the dip will now reassert itself. That however does not mean good times will continue as the froth has now been blown off of the bubble.
Anecdotal signs of a market top have been flashing loud and clear now for the past 6 months. Since last summer the public has finally embraced this market and over the last 3 months have been recklessly plunging head long into it. Complacency reigns supreme so that after last Friday’s 666 point drop even the superstitious remained complacent.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Yesterday we shared with you Part I – big picture analysis “math” Behind the recent sell-off. Today, we want to show you the what the math is pointing to in the short term and what to expect next.
For this type of analysis, we are going to use the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system that attempts to tear apart price and technical data from within a chart and reconstruct future price data by learning from the past. In these examples, we will focus on Weekly and Monthly data going forward about 25 periods. The intent is to clearly illustrate how our earlier analysis (completed near the end of December 2017) is still aligning with our current analysis. Amazing how these things all plug together like a big puzzle when you think about it.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 index gained 1.5% on Thursday, as it retraced some of its recent sell-off, following Wednesday's downward reversal. The broad stock market traded the lowest since early October, before bouncing off from around 2,530. Is this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.4-1.5% on Friday following bouncing off new short-term lows, as investors' sentiment improved in the second half of the trading session. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the early October. It traded 11.8% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87 (-340.2 points). Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% on Friday.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Abalgorithm
The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.
Monday, February 12, 2018
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve received many comments and questions from our members over the past few days regarding the recent US market crisis asking what to expect next. Is this the start of something bigger? Deeper? What should I do with my open long positions? What should I do to prepare for anything in the future? All of these are valid questions. So, we wanted to help our members and all of our followers by showing what we believe will be the most likely price action going forward a few weeks out.
The recent downside moves in the US majors did freak a lot of people out. It was something that startled people and pushed a panic button for many. Certainly, the rotation in the VIX and volatility related ETN’s pushed many people over the edge. In fact, recent news is that these volatility related ETN’s exasperated the selloff as the VIX shorts were pushed out of positions and into a protectionist mode with the massive spike in volatility. As the old floor trader saying goes “want to know what causes the markets to crash? Buyers that turn into sellers to protect from unwanted losses”.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – An intermediate correction from 2872 is currently underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
Math Behind Last Weeks Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After surviving one of the biggest market rotations in the last 3+ years, we have been getting quite a bit of request for a detailed analysis of this move and asked what our specialized modeling systems are telling us is likely to happen. Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has put together this short reference of “the math behind the move” that will show you what is happening and the underlying price mechanics that are going to be driving prices in the future.
Sunday, February 11, 2018
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
US Stock Market
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX nearly did a 100% retracement to the August 2015 high as suggested last week. This week it pulled back to test the Cycle Top support/resistance at 22.31. It appears to have yet another surge higher in store for it. The Cycles Model has a triple indicator of a higher Wave (3) top in the next week.
(ZeroHedge Less than a month ago, Goldman Sachs presciently published a note research report "VIX ETPs are now net short vega - should we worry".
.... which as the title suggested showed that the net position of VIX ETPs has become short over the past few weeks, for only the second time in their eight year history.
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Lot of Stock Market Damage to Be Caused before New the Fed Chief Will React / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on news outlets throughout the world, and it's great to have him back on with us.
Axel, it's a real pleasure to speak with you again, and thanks for joining us.
Axel Merk: Oh, it's good to be with you.
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
Financial Markets Bubble Watching / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, explain why they believe financial markets have generated the biggest bubble in history.
As we have noted here before, we believe that financial markets have generated the biggest bubble in history. There are many supporting facts for this view, from extreme measures of market sentiment to prolonged record low volatility, unprecedented low interest rates, record levels of leverage and historic over-valuation.
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
Never Give Up Your Short Position in a Stocks Bear Market.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This morning’s action in the SPX was both fascinating and informative. I had suggested a bounce that might go to the Cycle Bottom resistance at 2627.12. It didn’t even make it. Wave [a] went to 2619.47, then reversed down to make a new low at 2563.49 in Wave [b]. Wave [c] was stopped close to the neckline, which I had also mentioned as another resistance point. In my opinion, that validates the Head & Shoulders formation as is. This is called an irregular correction, but since Wave [c] is barely visible, it may be referred to as a “running correction.”
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Stock Market Selling Unleashed! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The unnaturally-tranquil stock markets suddenly plunged over this past week. Volatility skyrocketed out of the blue and shattered years of artificial calm conjured by extreme central-bank distortions. This was a huge shock to the legions of hyper-complacent traders, who are realizing stocks don’t rally forever. With stock selling unleashed again, herd psychology will start shifting back to bearish which will fuel lots more selling.
As a contrarian student of the markets, I watched stocks’ recent mania-blowoff surge in stunned disbelief. On fundamental, technical, and sentimental fronts, the stock markets were as or more extreme than their last major bull-market toppings in March 2000 and October 2007! I outlined all this in an essay on these hyper-risky stock markets on 2017’s final trading day. The ominous writing was on the wall for all willing to see.
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