Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 24, 2013
S&P 500 P/E Ratio versus 10-Yr Treasury Interest Rates From 1957 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Richard_Shaw
In our recent post, we used historical mean reversion to estimate the Fed’s target rate for 10-year Treasuries, 30-year mortgages, and Baa corporate bonds, based on the Fed’s 2% inflation target. One commenter wrote to us and asked what that implied for the S&P 500 P/E ratios.
We looked at the monthly history of trailing P/E ratios for the S&P 500 since its inception in March 1957, and conclude that there is no useful rule of thumb about P/E ratios and interest rates in the interest rate range from 4% to 6%. At much higher interest rates, P/E’s do become depressed; which relates the to business stifling aspects of very high rates. However, the 4% to 6% range, which is what we may face in next year or two, has not historically been a problem.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
China Stock Market Crashes, SPX Gaps Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The 10-year treasury yield… Is headed for the moon... in yield terms that is. Because if Bernanke's hope was that the handoff from buyers to sellers would be a smooth one, he may want to conference in Kuroda and get some advice on what happens when the bond market is halted limit down.Good thing Bernanke is not a real hedge fund, or else the $35 billion intraday P&L crash (so far), and $250 billion in the past two months, may raise a few eyebrows.
Monday, June 24, 2013
BIS Bank Forecasts More Of The Same / Stock-Markets / Banksters
By: Andrew_McKillop
BORROWED MONEY AND LOST TIME
The strange story of the BIS – whose forerunner founded in 1930 was the lynchpin bank of the Third Reich – is well known and heavily documented. Introducing its 83rd annual report for 2013, the Bank for International Settlements strikes a supposedly pragmatic we-can-fix-it tone. Its Overview under the title 'Making the most of borrowed time' says: “Originally forged to describe central banks’ actions to prevent financial collapse, Whatever It Takes has become a rallying cry for them to continue their extraordinary policies”.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
China Stock Market Falls Hard: What's Going On? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: DK_Matai
Chinese stocks have plunged considerably to lead Asian equities lower with concerns that Beijing may be reluctant or perhaps politically unable to ease a liquidity crunch in the Shanghai interbank money markets, slamming banks particularly hard. The Shanghai Composite suffered its worst one-day percentage loss in nearly four years, plunging 5.3% -- its first close below the psychologically-important 2,000-point level since December last year. The performance is its worst since a 6.7% drop in August 2009 during the global financial crisis. The Shenzhen Composite Index also dived 6.1%. In parallel, Japan and Korea have also fallen more than a percent and now Europe and America are turning negative yet again.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
How to Play the New Normal: Spiking Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Strap on your seat belts...and get ready for a ride...a very bumpy ride.
After having assumed US equities would keep chugging higher with little deviation from "up," things are starting to look a bit different.
Have you been watching Japan? It's a cautionary tale that is about to play out in the US, and globally.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
Stock Market Correction Reaches Temporary Support Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. An intermediate reversal is on the way.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
Stocks Bear Market Focus Point: Are You Ready to Weather the Coming Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Garry_Abeshouse
Are you ready to weather the coming storm?
It is a truism that financial markets tend to rise into ever greater expectations and to peak when optimism can rise no further. But when a market can rise no higher, “A” peak becomes “THE” peak and once reached the only way left is down. The only conclusion I can come to as to why equities (but not all equities) are so high, is that the majority of market traders (you notice I do not use the term “investors” any more) must be by definition, “True Believers” in the one and only true “Gospel of the Perpetual Rising Market”, where fantasy triumphs over reason. In this fantasy world the fiction of bullish forward P/E Ratios will always triumph over the realities of the living world, because as we all know the one true God resides, not in heaven, but in Wall Street. But Bull Markets if nothing else are ephemeral beasts, so beware of the coming storm.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Gold and Stock Market Due for a Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Submissions
Tom Clayton writes: Gold is very oversold on the MACD and %R, last time %R was this low was Oct 08 from which prices more than doubled after %B rallied to 0.49, corrected and then pushed to above 1.0.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Gold Price Crash, Panic Deepens on World Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Global_Research
Andre Damon writes: Global stocks plunged Thursday in the biggest one-day sell-off so far this year, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank might consider paring back its cash infusions into the financial markets within the next six months.
The panic in stock and bond markets sparked by the remarks of Bernanke, who on Wednesday suggested the Fed might start winding down its $85 billion per month in asset purchases, was compounded by the release of data on Thursday showing that Chinese manufacturing activity hit its lowest level in nine months.
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Sunday, June 23, 2013
S&P Stock Index Charts Speak Loudest, Clearest, And Most Accurately / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Michael_Noonan
Not that charts actually "speak," but the information taken from them can be the most reliable for anyone wanting to accumulate profits. Does not everyone want to accumulate profits? You would think that the answer would be an easy yes, but somewhere in the process of "investing" in the stock market, the answer is not as obvious as it would seem.
Why not?
Good question.
Lack of discipline is one of the more key answers. Ignorance comes to mind as a more widespread one. Too many people simply do not know what to do at the right time or at critical moments. When a stock or a futures contract is not going well, aka creating losses, the first question, it would seem, is what was the plan? What was the reason for entering into a position in the first place? What was the exit plan,[surely there was one]?
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Sunday, June 23, 2013
Has the Great Financial Crisis Finally Arrived? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Graham_Summers
The technical damage from yesterday’s bloodbath was severe.
Spain, which lead the “Europe is saved” party from the lows last year has just taken out its trendline. So much for the “crisis is over” proclamations. We’re heading back down in a big way.
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Sunday, June 23, 2013
Bad Week For Stocks Bulls....Back Testing Long-Term Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
This wasn't a great week for the stock-market bulls as a very nasty technical day occurred on Thursday with a big gap down that ran, causing huge losses across the board. The volume was also quite large on that selling. That's a confirmation that big money was letting go of some their holdings. Never great to see big money letting go. The big gap has now allowed the bears to get more aggressive on any attempt higher. That's what finally gives them some ammunition to feel stronger about their stance. They can come in and short on all attempts back towards the breakdown level of 1600 and 1612 respectively. They know that big money let it go at the top, and thus, they won't be running in to buy back at those levels. Like the Fed protecting the bulls before, there's protection now for the bears.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Stock Market Downtrend May Have Bottomed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
An interesting week. The market started the week by gapping up and rallying to SPX 1654 just before the close on Tuesday. Wednesday, FOMC day, the market hovered just below that level awaiting the FOMC statement and press conference. When traders heard about a potential cut back in QE 3 by year end, and concluding it by mid-2014, the May-June correction resumed. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.95%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.05%, and the DJ World index lost 3.2%. Economic reports for the week remained positive. On the uptick: the NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the CPI, housing starts, existing home sales and leading indicators. On the downtick: building permits, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get Q1 GDP, personal income/spending and PCE prices.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Fed Crashes Financial Markets to Defend Against U.S. Dollar Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Joseph_Russo
Let’s face the music people.
In a corrupt system, which imposes by force, unjust and unconstitutional laws, where a digital account entry creates monopoly-imposed legal tender out of thin air, it’s clear why global markets turn to the US dollar for safety.
Anyone with half a brain realizes the enormity of such insanity, but such is the corrupt reality imposed by our treasonous elite slave owners.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Marc Faber on Bernanke QE Tapering, Stocks, Gold and Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, told Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan and Tom Keene on "Street Smart" today that believing in Ben Bernanke is like believing in Father Christmas. He said, "If you say that if he means what he says, then you believe in Father Christmas... As I said already three years ago, we are going to go with the Fed to QE99."
Faber said, "I think the market is on the high side, corporate profits are inflated and we could easily, from the recent high, May 22 at 1687 on the S&P, drop by 20% to 30%, easily."
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Saturday, June 22, 2013
Key Tips for Surmounting Rigged Financial and Commodity Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“We no longer have a free market. The world's financial asset prices have become a plaything of central banks and the sovereign wealth funds of a few emerging powers.
“Julian Callow from Barclays says they are buying $1.8 trillion worth of AAA or safe-haven bonds each year from an available pool of $2 trillion. Nothing like this has been seen before in modern times, if ever.
“The Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, et al., own $10 trillion in bonds. China, the petro-powers, et al., own another $10 trillion. Between them they have locked up $20 trillion, equal to roughly 25 percent of global GDP. They are the market. That is why Fed taper talk has become so neuralgic and why we all watch Chinese regulators for every clue on policy….
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Saturday, June 22, 2013
Similarities To 1973 Stock Market Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
In last week’s column I showed charts of how the market has alternated between significant bull and bear markets since the top in 2000, and how Warren Buffett has been right so far in his prediction in November, 1999 that, “Over the next 17 years equities will not perform anything like – anything like - they’ve performed over the last 17 years.”
Friday, June 21, 2013
Federal Reserve Propping Up Asset Prices / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Fred_Sheehan
The Federal Reserve is fully committed to its asset-propping strategy: It will raise the economy by lifting asset numbers.
This is where it is important to remember the Federal Reserve does not care about economics. The economists at the Fed are central planners. It's not that they don't like economics, they simply are not interested in, so ignore, economics. Those of us not so inclined think of asset numbers as prices, be they shares in the S&P 500 or wheat germ. But the Fed operates in an abstract world; humanity is a distraction.
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Friday, June 21, 2013
Finding a Sea of Calm in the Rising Stock Market Mania / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The markets have begun to swoon and one of the canaries was two Thai tycoons.
This pair of Thai tycoons, neither of them well-known internationally, has made a total of $27 billion in acquisitions in the past year, more than all Thai companies spent abroad in the preceding three years.
That's the kind of statistic common in today's global deal mania, fueled by the glut of funny money. It raises a dreaded question: what happens when the music stops, and when global leverage stops being so available?
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Friday, June 21, 2013
Stock Market Breakdown - Flash Crash May be Starting Here / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
After a bit of sideways consolidation beneath Cycle Bottom resistance, SPX has now broken beneath its prior lows and is on its way for another probable 100 point drop. The Flash Crash may be starting here.
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