Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 29, 2018
Stock Market Approaching Intermediate Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bear market
Intermediatetrend– Approaching initial low (1585-1600).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
The Stock Market’s Volatility is Very High. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
What a week for the U.S. stock market. Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that “the world is ending” because trendline support has been broken.
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Sunday, October 28, 2018
Kitchin Cycle Warned of Stok Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
Here are some names of cycle masters: Kondratieff, Dewey, Kitchin, to name just a few. Cycles are in all matters of life, including the SP500.
From Wiki
.."Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British businessman and statistician. Analyzing American and English interest rates and other data, Kitchin found evidence for a short business cycle of about 40 months.[1] His publications led to other business cycle theories by later economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter"..
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Saturday, October 27, 2018
Stock Investor Batten Down The Hatches, Mates! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Get ready for some crazy price trends in the US markets as investors react to earnings, housing data and overall re-evaluations of future objectives. As we warned on September 17 with this post and on October 1 with this post, we believed the future Q3 earnings weeks and the 2~4 weeks leading into the US Mid-term elections could be very volatile. We even suggested a 5~8% price correction was expected to start after September 21~24.
What we did not expect is the Federal Reserve to raise rates, again, on September 26 – just days before the Q3 Earnings season actually started. Our price models for the Fed Funds Rates have suggested that any move above 2% FFR would put pricing pressures on homes and other assets. This research we completed was first published in 2015 here. This was the first time we illustrated our Fed Funds Rate Adaptive Learning modeling systems results. The chart within this article that shows that our model expected the US Fed to begin increasing interest rates in 2014~2015 to levels near 0.75~1.25. From that point, a gradual increase towards 2.0 was expected prior to 2018~19. Our price modeling system then expected a decrease in the FFR from 2.0% to between 1.5~1.75%.
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Saturday, October 27, 2018
Difficult Market Spooks Stock Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have been following the news cycles for many months regarding the prognosticators that believe “the sky is falling” in the global markets and we find it interesting to see how quickly the bulls turn to bears when the market rotates 4~5% or more. The reality is that in traditional market price rotation, a 3~5% market price rotation is a very healthy component of price advance or price declines.
When we consider the price swings within the SPY from early 2017 till now, we are looking at a total of at least 18% total Low to High price swings with a number of large 6~8% price rotations and many 2~4% smaller price rotations. The natural rotation of price, as Fibonacci price theory teaches, is that price will always attempt to establish a new higher high or lower low in the process of extended trends. This means that price is always attempting to find and establish some new price high or low by rotating/trending within existing/past high or low price levels.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
US Stocks Are Nowhere Near a Bubble Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Stephen_McBride
“This is the longest bull market in US stocks ever” they say.Technically, they are right. This bull broke the all-time record formerly held by the 1990–2000 rally.
As I’m sure you remember, that one ended with a historic 80% crash in the Nasdaq that wiped out millions of overeager investors.
If you’re troubled by this, you’ll want to read the rest of this article carefully.
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Friday, October 26, 2018
Top Trading: How to Trade Like the Pros / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
It's becoming more open than ever before and while it may have once only been open to certain clientele several years ago, a lot more people seem to be getting in on the trading act.
Of course, through things like the MT4 demo trading account, this is quite understandable. After all, it wasn't too long that software like this was accessible to the Average Joe, and there's no doubt that it makes life as a trader a whole lot easier.
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
Stock Market Sky is Falling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Savage
For nine years now every time we have an intermediate degree correction the perma bears crawl out of the woodwork and start screaming the sky is falling. If you had listened to these people you would have missed one of the greatest bull markets in history.
We had one of the most destructive bear markets in history in 2008/09. It stands to reason it should generate one of the strongest bull markets. As I’ve noted many times in the past, markets act like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction the harder the reaction in the opposite direction.
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
Predictive Price Modeling Shows New Price Highs Are Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our proprietary adaptive learning tools, specifically our adaptive predictive price modeling tool, is clearly illustrating higher price rotation over the next few weeks with a strong potential that the US equities markets will break to be all-time highs near Dec 2018 or early 2019.
Our research team has spent more than a decade studying the markets and developing specialized tools to assist us in understanding current and future price activities. This one tool, the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Price Modeling system is one of the more dynamic tools we have ever created. We can ask it what it believes is the highest probability future outcome many weeks, months or years in advance. Today, we are sharing with you what we believe will be a strong upside price rotation to close out 2018 and lead into 2019.
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Sunday, October 21, 2018
SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.
To review…
- Amigo #1 is the SPX/Gold Ratio (more generally, stocks vs. gold) and a counter cyclical and risk ‘off’ environment simply will not engage until stocks top out vs. gold, if even for a cyclical down phase within the up phase.
- Amigo #2 is the 30yr Treasury Yield and it’s 100 month EMA ‘limiter’, which has supported the funding mechanism (unrestrained credit creation) for the leveraged economy for decades. If the limiter holds yet again, while there could be some deflationary problems the system will persist. If it breaks for the first time in decades well, we are not in Kansas anymore and the door would open up to an inflationary Crack Up Boom (von Mises style).
- Amigo #3 is the Yield Curve, which is in the late stages of flattening. When it turns up it will either be under pains of deflationary or inflationary pressure. Note the word “pains” because there would be pain, either way; but in different financial and economic areas.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Stock Market Bubbles, Balloons, Needles and Pins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s no surprise that China has its own plunge protection team -but why were they so late?-, nor that Beijing blames its problems on Trump’s tariffs. GDP growth was disappointing at 6.5%, but who’s ever believed those almost always dead on numbers? It would be way more interesting to know what part of that growth has been based on debt and leverage. But that we don’t get to see.
So we turn elsewhere. How about the Shanghai Composite Index? It may not be a perfect reflection of the Chinese economy, no more than the S&P 500 is for the US, but it does raise some valid and curious questions.
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Saturday, October 20, 2018
Here Comes the Stock Market Retest / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Over the past 2 days I’ve been demonstrating quantitative studies about why the U.S. stock market will probably retest its lows (here and here).
The retest wave is happening right now.
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Friday, October 19, 2018
History's Worst Stock Market Crash and the Greatest Investing Lesson! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest day of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October 19th, the 31st anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday that saw the stock market crash by an unprecedented 22% in just one day that few saw coming but ever since many prophesise the repeat of each October, regardless of what the stock market has actually been doling each year as the perma bear crowd can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent, pointing to a myriad of harbingers of the imminent stock market apocalypse such as the Hindenburg Omen. Against which the historic record paints a picture of a coin toss having proved infinitely more accurate than the perma crash is coming calls awaiting their broken clock moment to proclaim success.
Friday, October 19, 2018
More Signs of a Stocks Bull Market Top and Start of a Bear Market in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
More than 1 month ago I explained my main long term worry for the U.S. stock market:
Read full article... Read full article...The economy & the stock market move in the same direction in the medium-long term. Key economic indicators tend to deteriorate BEFORE bull markets end.
But here’s the tricky part. Sometimes leading economic indicators deteriorate JUST before bull markets end (i.e. only a few months before). Sometimes leading economic indicators deteriorate 2 years before bull markets end. This makes it hard to estimate the bull market’s exact top.
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Stock Market Detailed Map Of Expected Price Movement Before The Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team was hard at work over the past few days. Not only were they able to call this downside price swing 3+ weeks in advance, they also called the market bottom within 0.5% of the absolute lows. Now, they have put together a suggested “map” of what to expect in regards to price rotation, support, resistance and the eventual price breakout that we are expecting to happen near or after November 8~12. Today, we are sharing this detailed map with all of our followers.
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Are You A Stock Investor Being Set Up For The Slaughter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For many years, I have been a staunch bull. In fact, many commenters and contributors on Seeking Alpha and MarketWatch were quite vocal regarding how they thought I was crazy back in 2016 for expecting the market to go from 1800 to over 2600SPX, and potentially up through 3000. Needless to say, many of them remained bearish throughout that rally.
When many were extremely bearish in early 2016, I was pounding the table about a global melt up. When many were saying before the election that you should "sell everything if Trump gets elected," we were again pounding the table for a rally over 2600SPX "no matter who got elected."
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Thursday, October 18, 2018
Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Is the Trump agenda in peril? It’s a question investors should consider ahead of the mid-term elections.
Up to now, the Trump economic agenda has certainly been great for Wall Street and much of the broader economy. The Dow Jones Industrials continues to defy all naysayers – notching yet another new record high in the first week of October before correcting.
Meanwhile, the latest GDP numbers show the economy growing at its fastest pace in over a decade, with official unemployment at generational lows.
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Thursday, October 18, 2018
Stock Market is Making a Sharp Rally After a Sharp Drop. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Today’s big bounce has some people comparing the current market environment to October 2014, when the stock market dropped quickly and surged back to new all-time highs quickly.
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Wednesday, October 17, 2018
US Stocks Mount Impressive Early Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As fast as the downside breakout occurred, the upside recovery appears to be taking place as Q3 Earnings begin to hit the news wires. This past weekend, the news cycles and market experts all seemed to have opinions about where the US equities market was headed after last week’s price collapse. We’ve read everything from warnings of a $20 trillion dollar collapse to seeing Bloomberg’s SMART INDEX chart showing equity valuations are near historic market bottoms. It seems everyone wanted to get out and share their opinions – I guess we are no different.
The facts still remain the same, until the global market dynamics change and the US equities markets break the defined price channels that have been well established, we do not see any reason to consider a 6~8% correction life-threatening. In the total scope of the price range, this move represents less than a 25% price correction from price rotation points (as you’ll see on the longer term NQ chart below). Yes, eventually, some critical market event might cause the US equity markets to change direction, but until then stay safe and roll in and out of trades with skill.
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Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the stock market volatility of the last week and what it may mean for precious metals.
When asked about the dominant theme for the markets last January, I said that the one thing I looked forward to was a return of "VOLATILITY" as the Federal Reserve Board moved to "normalize" the interest rate structure, now commonly referred to as quantitative tightening. What has actually transpired since then was a brief volatility spike in February during which the UVXY tripled in ten days but other than that, markets screamed higher, hitting new high after new high with annoying complacency and irritating certainty while "VOL" collapsed.
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