Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Predictive Price Modeling Shows New Price Highs Are Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our proprietary adaptive learning tools, specifically our adaptive predictive price modeling tool, is clearly illustrating higher price rotation over the next few weeks with a strong potential that the US equities markets will break to be all-time highs near Dec 2018 or early 2019.

Our research team has spent more than a decade studying the markets and developing specialized tools to assist us in understanding current and future price activities.  This one tool, the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Price Modeling system is one of the more dynamic tools we have ever created.  We can ask it what it believes is the highest probability future outcome many weeks, months or years in advance.  Today, we are sharing with you what we believe will be a strong upside price rotation to close out 2018 and lead into 2019.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.

To review…

• Amigo #1 is the SPX/Gold Ratio (more generally, stocks vs. gold) and a counter cyclical and risk ‘off’ environment simply will not engage until stocks top out vs. gold, if even for a cyclical down phase within the up phase.
• Amigo #2 is the 30yr Treasury Yield and it’s 100 month EMA ‘limiter’, which has supported the funding mechanism (unrestrained credit creation) for the leveraged economy for decades. If the limiter holds yet again, while there could be some deflationary problems the system will persist. If it breaks for the first time in decades well, we are not in Kansas anymore and the door would open up to an inflationary Crack Up Boom (von Mises style).
• Amigo #3 is the Yield Curve, which is in the late stages of flattening. When it turns up it will either be under pains of deflationary or inflationary pressure. Note the word “pains” because there would be pain, either way; but in different financial and economic areas.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Stock Market Bubbles, Balloons, Needles and Pins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s no surprise that China has its own plunge protection team -but why were they so late?-, nor that Beijing blames its problems on Trump’s tariffs. GDP growth was disappointing at 6.5%, but who’s ever believed those almost always dead on numbers? It would be way more interesting to know what part of that growth has been based on debt and leverage. But that we don’t get to see.

So we turn elsewhere. How about the Shanghai Composite Index? It may not be a perfect reflection of the Chinese economy, no more than the S&P 500 is for the US, but it does raise some valid and curious questions.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Here Comes the Stock Market Retest / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Over the past 2 days I’ve been demonstrating quantitative studies about why the U.S. stock market will probably retest its lows (here and here).

The retest wave is happening right now.

Friday, October 19, 2018

History's Worst Stock Market Crash and the Greatest Investing Lesson! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest day of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October 19th, the 31st anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday that saw the stock market crash by an unprecedented 22% in just one day that few saw coming but ever since many prophesise the repeat of each October, regardless of what the stock market has actually been doling each year as the perma bear crowd can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent, pointing to a myriad of harbingers of the imminent stock market apocalypse such as the Hindenburg Omen. Against which the historic record paints a picture of a coin toss having proved infinitely more accurate than the perma crash is coming calls awaiting their broken clock moment to proclaim success.

Friday, October 19, 2018

More Signs of a Stocks Bull Market Top and Start of a Bear Market in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

More than 1 month ago I explained my main long term worry for the U.S. stock market:

The economy & the stock market move in the same direction in the medium-long term. Key economic indicators tend to deteriorate BEFORE bull markets end.

But here’s the tricky part. Sometimes leading economic indicators deteriorate JUST before bull markets end (i.e. only a few months before). Sometimes leading economic indicators deteriorate 2 years before bull markets end. This makes it hard to estimate the bull market’s exact top.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Stock Market Detailed Map Of Expected Price Movement Before The Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team was hard at work over the past few days.  Not only were they able to call this downside price swing 3+ weeks in advance, they also called the market bottom within 0.5% of the absolute lows.  Now, they have put together a suggested “map” of what to expect in regards to price rotation, support, resistance and the eventual price breakout that we are expecting to happen near or after November 8~12.  Today, we are sharing this detailed map with all of our followers.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Are You A Stock Investor Being Set Up For The Slaughter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For many years, I have been a staunch bull. In fact, many commenters and contributors on Seeking Alpha and MarketWatch were quite vocal regarding how they thought I was crazy back in 2016 for expecting the market to go from 1800 to over 2600SPX, and potentially up through 3000. Needless to say, many of them remained bearish throughout that rally.

When many were extremely bearish in early 2016, I was pounding the table about a global melt up. When many were saying before the election that you should "sell everything if Trump gets elected," we were again pounding the table for a rally over 2600SPX "no matter who got elected."

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Is the Trump agenda in peril? It’s a question investors should consider ahead of the mid-term elections.

Up to now, the Trump economic agenda has certainly been great for Wall Street and much of the broader economy. The Dow Jones Industrials continues to defy all naysayers – notching yet another new record high in the first week of October before correcting.

Meanwhile, the latest GDP numbers show the economy growing at its fastest pace in over a decade, with official unemployment at generational lows.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Stock Market is Making a Sharp Rally After a Sharp Drop. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Today’s big bounce has some people comparing the current market environment to October 2014, when the stock market dropped quickly and surged back to new all-time highs quickly.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

US Stocks Mount Impressive Early Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As fast as the downside breakout occurred, the upside recovery appears to be taking place as Q3 Earnings begin to hit the news wires.  This past weekend, the news cycles and market experts all seemed to have opinions about where the US equities market was headed after last week’s price collapse.  We’ve read everything from warnings of a $20 trillion dollar collapse to seeing Bloomberg’s SMART INDEX chart showing equity valuations are near historic market bottoms.  It seems everyone wanted to get out and share their opinions – I guess we are no different.

The facts still remain the same, until the global market dynamics change and the US equities markets break the defined price channels that have been well established, we do not see any reason to consider a 6~8% correction life-threatening.  In the total scope of the price range, this move represents less than a 25% price correction from price rotation points (as you’ll see on the longer term NQ chart below).  Yes, eventually, some critical market event might cause the US equity markets to change direction, but until then stay safe and roll in and out of trades with skill.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the stock market volatility of the last week and what it may mean for precious metals.

When asked about the dominant theme for the markets last January, I said that the one thing I looked forward to was a return of "VOLATILITY" as the Federal Reserve Board moved to "normalize" the interest rate structure, now commonly referred to as quantitative tightening. What has actually transpired since then was a brief volatility spike in February during which the UVXY tripled in ten days but other than that, markets screamed higher, hitting new high after new high with annoying complacency and irritating certainty while "VOL" collapsed.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: C_Pissouros

Darius Anucauskas writes: It looks like a busy week, as there is a lot of economic data that is ready to hit the spotlight, together with the political news that are taking centre stage. Brexit negotiations are also in focus, together with the ongoing discussions around Italy’s deficit.

On Monday, the calendar is relatively quiet, apart from US retail sales figures that are set to come out before the US opening bell. The expectations here are that the figures for the core and headline could have increased. The headline number is expected to come out at +0.7%, which is well above the previous +0.1%. The core figure, which excludes automobiles, is forecasted to come out one tenth of percent higher, at +0.4%, against the previous month’s +0.3%. Certainly, better sales figures could have a positive effect on the US dollar, but we doubt that the greenback will show any strong reaction after numbers come out.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Is this the Start of a Bear Market for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Is this the start of a bear market for stocks? That’s probably what you’re wondering right now, with the S&P 500 sitting right ontop of its 200 daily moving average.

Here’s our long term, medium term, and short term outlook for the U.S. stock market. We focus on the long term and medium term. As U.S. stock market investors and traders, our job is to separate the signal from the noise.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Federal Reserve And The Markets / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Analysis and opinions of the financial markets vary depending on who is doing the analyzing. The most critical element that affects the song is the singer.

There is nothing wrong with that. But we should be aware that our own prejudice  clouds our perspective. However, there is more that is not so obvious. With that in mind, lets take a look at things.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There has been quite a bit of information and opinion in the news recently regarding the recent downside price action in the US Equities markets.  We’ve seen everything from “The sky is falling” to “The markets will rally into the end of the year”.  If you’ve been following our research and analysis, you already know what we believe will be the likely outcome and if not – keep reading.

There are a number of key components of the global economy that are of interest currently; US Treasuries, Precious Metals, Emerging Markets, the European Union, Trade Issues and Capital Shifts.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Is the Stocks Bull Dead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Has the bear market started? 

Intermediate trend –  The correction has turned into a short-term debacle which may not be over.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Stock Market Bottoms are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

What a roller coaster day on Friday for the U.S. stock market. The S&P went up and down near its 200 day moving average, closing right on top of this line.

Friday, October 12, 2018

Stock Market Crash: Time to Buy Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

In yesterday’s market study I said that the U.S. stock market would probably fall a little more. Upon further analysis, I said that the S&P would probably fall below its 200 dma to at least 2729.

Lucky call or not, that’s exactly what the S&P did today.

Friday, October 12, 2018

Has The Stocks Bear Market Begun? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

It seems the pundits have lost their way. The reasons for the market moves have now confounded most market participants and pundits to such an extent, and they are stretching so far to provide a reason for a market move, that we have moved from the ridiculous to the sublime.

In the last several years I have outlined how the market has completely ignored the dozens of negative geopolitical events that were supposed to have adversely affected our market as it has continued to rally towards our long-term targets.