Sunday, October 16, 2022
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
Are You Prepared for Widespread Bank Failures? / Companies / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
"This time, the world economy appears to be on much shakier footing"
The ideal time to prepare for most anything in life, especially a potential circumstance that's adverse, is before it happens.
The problem is: Many people don't know what will happen in their lives ahead of time.
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
Post-bubble Economic Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand
Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.
To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.
Why were they foiled so effectively? Because the Federal Reserve and global central banks have for decades had a lenient bond market to fall back on (the fabled ‘bond vigilantes of yore apparently rode into a small town, hit the saloon and never again emerged… until 2022, that is). I have for many years now used the 30-year yield ‘Continuum’ (monthly 30yr yield chart, below) as a nice visual to the mechanics of the Fed’s macro-manipulative wheel house, the US Treasury bond market.
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
Feeding the Stocks Bear Market Beast / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
New Banking Crisis Looms as Fears of “Lehman Moment” Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As new inflation data pushes the Fed toward continuing with rate hikes, precious metals markets are struggling to make headway.
On Thursday, the government released Consumer Price Index data for September. The so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago. That’s the highest core inflation reading since 1982.
Although prices at the pump have eased since the summer peak, other inflation components continue to rise. Housing, food, and medical care are currently among the biggest contributors to rising consumer prices.
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
The Fed’s Challenge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As the economic slowdown deepens, the Fed’s challenges grow larger. It increases the risk of policy mistakes that could benefit gold.Inflation Is Still a Challenge
It was a tough year for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank’s inflation forecasts were embarrassing. In December 2021, it projected the PCEPI inflation rate at 2.6%, while it soared to 6.8% through June. The Fed disclosed $300 billion in unrealized losses on its assets as of the end of March, showing the negative impact of rising interest rates on the market value of the Fed’s balance sheet (that likely only intensified since Q1). There was a trading scandal with two top officials resigning.
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
SCAREFEST TOP TIPS! - Alton Towers Scarefest 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
Top tips for attending SCAREFEST 2022 so you enjoy the thrills and the scares. The carnival is back in town for Scarefest 2022 in this brand new scare zone at Alton Towers, Freak Show. A travelling side-show of circus rejects has descended upon Alton Towers. Dare you walk amongst the freakishly fascinating misfits, desperate for your undivided attention?
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
Investment Tips You Should Know About / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Mark_Adan
1. P2P Lending
P2P lending, also known as peer-to-peer lending, is still pretty new. There are online P2P services that offers personal loans, business loans and other types of loans. You can join a service, and then you can pool your money with other investors to fund loans to others. If the borrower qualifies for a loan, then you'll make money when they start paying the loan back or when the loan is paid back in full.
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How Will the New CPI Data Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Fresh inflation data is to be released tomorrow. While it may trigger daily fluctuations, the precious metals’ medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.
Stuck in Reverse
While risk assets attempted a daily rally on Oct. 11, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoiled the party with his hawkish warning to U.K. pension funds. After restarting QE to curb the rapid rise in U.K. interest rates, he said:
“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that [intervention] is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”
Thus, while gold bucked the trend, it was another down day for silver, mining stocks and the S&P 500. Furthermore, with Fed officials undeterred by the financial market volatility, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Oct. 11:
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Ways to increase efficiency while playing in mobile casino / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Varun_Kumar
Earlier online casino experiences were limited to a mere desktop experience. Things took a drastic turn with the invention of smartphones. And which resulted in the arrival of mobile casinos. That is super confinement and loaded with plenty of features. The followers of mobile casinos are rapidly rising as people see them as god sent.
The inevitable features it offered stole gamblers' hearts and became a quick obsession among the gambling community. If you are a gambler looking to try out mobile casinos, there couldn't be a better time than this. The mobile casino developers are thriving hard to make the gaming experience as smooth as possible.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Barratt Smith Brown - How Britains' Debt Collectors Actually Operate, Treat Victims of Energy Firms / ConsumerWatch / Debt & Loans
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firms such as Barratt Smith and Brown are literally a law onto themselves, wracking up self imposed 'penalties' onto NONE EXISTENT DEBT! All courtesy of Administrators such as ENSORS ACCOUNTANTS. As this article illustrates how they play their milk the debt victim game which includes PREVENTING victims from being able to pay off 'debts' all whilst the so called Financial Ombudsman and Financial Conduct Authority sleep,
Firstly how does one cross paths with Debt Collecting outfit such as this if one has NO debt?
In step Britain's Energy companies that walked away from fixed rate tariff contracts, dumping their customers onto the regulator to parcel off onto the the likes of EDF resulting in huge hikes in tariffs. For instance I paid in advance above the market rate to fix my Gas tariff at 2.5p per kwh with Zog Energy who instead of honouring their contract took the money and ran, dumping their customers onto the regulator who ditched all onto EDF that hiked the tariff rate to 7.5p per kwh, three times the fixed rate! So triple the gas bill!
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Monday, October 10, 2022
Stock Market Trend Current State of Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P closed at 3680. trading to a low of 3633, June's low is 3622, so the 50% retracement studies conclusion so far remains in tact which implies that this decline is a bear trap, to be clear a trap for the bears all betting on a collapse into the abyss of 3,200 and below, fantasy numbers such as 3000 area being bandied around, and apparently Monday 26th is the end of the SHIEMITA when a big CRASH is due!, Note I don't for a minute take this nonsense seriously, anyway today's the last day of the SHEIMTA that was ironically brought to my attention in June near the bear market lows when there were shrill cries of SELL EVERYTHING NOW! In which case the Shemita folk are looking to break even today (in US dollars). To be clear SHIMTA is BS, but like all BS's there will be coincidences which with the benefit of hindsight will be twisted and turned into support of BS as will probably happen to this SHEIMITA where what it originally implied will be subverted with the benefit of hindsight, that's the case with religious mumbo jumbo, people actually do want to believe in the super natural! That ancient religious texts somehow have magic powers to predict what the stock market will do in 2022 which can only happen via a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough believe in it and act on it then yes it sort of comes true, which in fact is the basis of Technical Analysis, traders and algo's lock step acting on wiggly lines on the charts. A quick google shows that most of the major market CRASH events happened AFTER SHEMITA but for some reason SHEMITA claims jurisdiction over them as well i.e. 1987 Crash, 9-11 attack and so on,
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Monday, October 10, 2022
Gold Is Below $1,700 Again. Will It Repeat Its Fall to $1400? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The current situation of gold and its behavior in 2013 share many bearish analogies. Is the yellow metal only halfway through its massive collapse?
A Decade Ago
After we posted last week’s gold price forecast, gold, silver, and mining stocks declined in tune with the analysis. Is the rally over?
Let’s start by taking a closer look at gold.
Monday, October 10, 2022
FREAK SHOW - Alton Towers Scarefest Scare Zone 2022 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
Welcome to Freak Show, you can stay forever! The carnival is back in town for Scarefest 2022 in this brand new scare zone at Alton Towers, Freak Show. A travelling side-show of circus rejects has descended upon Alton Towers. Dare you walk amongst the freakishly fascinating misfits, desperate for your undivided attention?
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Scarefest 2022 – Halloween Fright Night Has Begun! Enter Alton Towers at Your Peril! / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
Prepare to be scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK for another post pandemic year, frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our Scarefest series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2022! With lots of ghouls and ghosts to give you plenty of frights!
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Investing At Bear Market Lows / Commodities / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I made lots of small across the board buys earlier in the the week with my main focus on Nvidia, HPQ, Logitec and Arrow, and 1 big buy - Samsung. Current state of my portfolio is 71% invested, 29% cash. Remember as stock prices go up so does the percent invested, similarly when stock prices fall the percent invested naturally drops.
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
2 ways to profit from “America’s Great Divide” / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
There’s a strange new trend sweeping across America…
Thanks to prices rising at their fastest pace in decades, folks are trying anything to save a few bucks.
Some of my friends switched energy providers to get better deals. Others drive to the next town over to get cheaper gas. It’s gotten so bad even the “six-figure club” have turned into penny pinchers...
Saturday, October 08, 2022
Silver – Dead In The Water for 40 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER IS DEAD IN THE WATER…
…and cheap; it’s a bargain! Buy it now before it goes to – $500? Seriously? One thing for sure; silver is cheaper now than it was the last time we heard such exuberant (irrational?) calls for action.
In fact, the lower the silver price goes, the more fervent are the claims and projections for ever higher and seemingly ridiculous prices. After more than forty years of calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver – Nothing Has Changed) now we are being treated to fantasy projections of $500 oz.
Coupled with the price prediction of $500 for silver is a prediction for a crash in the U.S. dollar – by 2023.
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
Trick or Treat Show at Scarefest 2022 – Halloween Fright Night Has Begun! Alton Towers / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TRICK OT TREAT SHOW! Prepare to be scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK for another post pandemic year, frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our Scarefest series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2022! With lots of ghouls and ghosts to give you plenty of frights!
Read full article... Read full article...