Thursday, November 24, 2022
Winter Is About To Wake up the Natural Gas Price / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
An unusually warm October has helped natural gas inventories, but gas prices don't seem to believe it. Oil has seen three days of heavy selling volume ending with a hammer candle stick Monday. Birchcliff, Callon, and Earthstone should benefit.
Gold stocks have started a new bull market. The question is, will the gold price confirm it?
The HUI index ran from a low of 180.41 on November 3, 2022, to a high of 224.88 on November 10, 2022, which is a +24.6% move. The gold stocks often lead to a move in gold, and the gold price did move from US$1631 to US$1775 in the same time frame.
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
COVID Is Still KILLING! - UK High Excess Deaths / Politics / Coronavirus 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There is silence in the MSM and that silence concerns the continuing high number of Excess deaths still taking place which is running at about 12% above the 5 year average, and not just in the UK but right across the world, for instance for Australia it is even higher at +17%. It's as though just like what QE did for the economy, it appears that the vaccines have done for the pandemic by kicking the covid deaths can down the road!
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Crude Oil Price Predicis the US Economy and Stocks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.
I built a few new combo chart this weekend, related to oil sector, to see if I could paint a more clearer picture of what is taking place. Since the 2020 crash low the USO, US oil fund, has had a very strong rally with the high being made back in the middle of June around 93 or so. The USO has been forming a new trading range since the June high and is currently testing the top rail of the blue falling wedge and the bottom trendline the 2020 uptrend channel. So the moment of truth has arrived.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
US Senate Report Concludes Lab Leak Origins of SARS-CoV-2 / Politics / Coronavirus 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Want to make sense of the U.S. midterms? Watch this... / ElectionOracle / US Politics
By: EWI
Hi,
Well, it happened again: Here in the U.S., election pollsters have egg on their face. In the midterm elections, a "red wave" -- Republicans winning by a landslide -- didn't come ashore.
What we got instead was a strong show for the status quo: a Senate hold for Democrats and a narrow House majority for Republicans.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
'No Mas' to Hawkish Fed Says Precious Metals Expert / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
In light of the controversy with FTX Corp., expert Michael Ballanger shares his opinion on current news coverage and the state of the gold market and U.S. dollar to tell you his view on the precious metals and whether he believes we are headed toward a bear market rally.
A tad over forty-two years ago, an absolute freak of a boxer named Roberto Duran lost a rematch with another fine battler named Sugar Ray Leonard when he uttered the two words “No más” and ended the bout.
As disappointed as I was to watch one of my favorite boxers (“scrapper” would be a better term) throw in the towel, I was actually appalled at the physical condition of the “Manos de Piedra” (Hands of Stone) Duran, who appeared to have ended his partying off the first bout about three days earlier.
However, the words ending the match were absolutely appropriate, and they are reminiscent of my current stance toward all this controversy and outrage surrounding FTX Corp., which is dominating the digital airwaves while swiftly becoming a major vote-getting platform for politicians. Surprise, surprise .
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.
Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.
Tuesday, November 22, 2022
GOLD AND THE NORMALCY BIAS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing?
NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITION
normalcy bias (noun)
“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe.” …Wictionary
Here is a better, more complete definition from a different source…
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
FTX Collapse Reconfirms Bitcoin Is NOT “Digital Gold” / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: MoneyMetals
John Ray III oversaw the bankruptcy liquidation of Enron when the giant energy trading firm collapsed in an inferno of fraud and malfeasance in 2001.
Last week, Ray was appointed to handle the unwinding of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. He had the following to say, and it's a lot given his experience:
"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."
Monday, November 21, 2022
CPLIE - The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
People need to learn to forget about graphs such as this (Annual percentage change in CPLIE) -
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Monday, November 21, 2022
Gold Price Formed a Bearish Star, and It’s Not Even Christmas Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Last week was full of events, but the most important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed a reversal “shooting star” candlestick.
The implications are just as you think they are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellow metal is now about to slide again.
Let’s take a closer look.
Monday, November 21, 2022
Economic Challenges face the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Donald_W_Dony
One of the biggest challenges that face the continuation of the 14-year economic expansion is inflation. Years of near-zero interest rates, an accommodating Fed, and low unemployment have resulted in the highest inflation rate in 40 years.
To counteract this rapid rise in inflation, the FOMC started increasing the Fed Funds Rate in May. First with small increments and then with four jumbo increases of 75 bps.
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Sunday, November 20, 2022
Why Most Amazon Black Friday Sales are FAKE! Stock Price Set to Crash to NEW BEAR Market LOW / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's Back Friday, no wait it's Black Friday WEEK, In fact longer than a week as Amazon spreads Black Friday from 18th November all the way to 28th of Number, A 10 DAY SALE! But is it real or is it fake find out in my latest video as I take a look at this creaking tech giant, on the tricks it tends to pull to try and get people to hit the buy button on items that can cost more DURING the sale then barely a few weeks ago!
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Sunday, November 20, 2022
Stock Market Investors Aren’t Buying the Fed’s Hawkish Posturing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As warning signs for the economy mount, investors are cheering for more bad news. That's because they expect economic weakness will force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and eventually re-embrace loose monetary policy.One reliable indicator over the years of an upcoming recession is an inverted yield curve. An inversion occurs when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates.
Typically, a 3-month Treasury bill or 2-year note will yield less than a 10-year note or 30-year bond. Shorter-duration debt instruments entail less risk and therefore deliver less reward under normal circumstances. But over the past four months, short-term IOUs have begun to yield more than longer-term paper.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
WHY PEAK INFLATION IS a RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Inflation Mega-trend
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
As for the United States, shadow stats does a good job of calculating the real rate of inflation which ia based on the US governments own 1980 formulae that resolves to 13.5% vs 8.2%.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector
The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Can a Gold Stocks Rally Be Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
History tends to repeat itself, and mining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has very interesting implications.
Why do I think that gold miners are repeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart.
Friday, November 18, 2022
Banks are becoming more cautious about lending / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
And the implications are bigger than just getting a loan
Robert Prechter's Last Chance to Conquer the Crash discusses the psychological aspect of a deflation:
When the trend of social mood changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, investors, producers and consumers all change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending.
Evidence of that developing financially conservative mindset is seen in this chart from the just-published November Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets (commentary below):
Friday, November 18, 2022
Amazon Black Friday - How to Grab BEST Deals, Top Tips and Hacks to Dodge FAKE SALES / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: HGR
It's Black Friday soon, and apparently Amazon is turning it into a week long sale, though its probably better to WAIT until the 26th of November for the real sales. Here are my top tips and hacks to ensure that you actually do grab bargains and not fall fowl to the tricks that sellers tend to pull such as raising prices before the sales and then cut on Black Friday so that there is no real sale. plenty of advice in our video on how to dodge the fake sales
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Feeding the Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
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