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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Monday, July 05, 2021

Stock Market Projection Reached - Cycles Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has likely reached the top pf its intermediate phase. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Commodities

Monday, July 05, 2021

Gold Price Summer Doldrums / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers.  With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane.  Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it.  Long feared as the summer doldrums, they’ve really moderated in recent years.

This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s traditional summer predicament.  It describes a zone surrounding the equator in the world’s oceans.  There hot air is constantly rising, spawning long-lived low-pressure areas.  They are often calm, with little prevailing winds.  History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway.  The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.

Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink.  Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on these ships long before air conditioning.  Misery and boredom were extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies.  Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.

Gold investors can somewhat relate.  Like clockwork trudging through early summers, gold starts drifting listlessly sideways.  It often can’t make significant progress no matter what trends looked like heading into June, July, and August.  As the days and weeks slowly pass, sentiment deteriorates markedly.  Patience is gradually exhausted, supplanted with deep frustration.  Plenty of traders capitulate, abandoning ship.

June and early July in particular have often proven desolate sentiment wastelands for precious metals, devoid of recurring seasonal demand surges.  Unlike most of the rest of the year, the summer months simply lack any major income-cycle or cultural drivers of outsized gold investment demand.  Yet three recent summers have been big exceptions to these decades-old seasonals, and 2021’s could still prove another.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 05, 2021

FED: U.S. Cocktail of Growth and Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The inflationary cauldron continues to boil. However, the USDX and Treasuries are undervalued relative to U.S. GDP growth prospects. What’s going on?

The Rising Tide of Inflation

While investors are all-in on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) “transitory” narrative, the inflationary cauldron continues to boil. Case in point: the IHS Markit released its manufacturing PMI on Jul. 1 and the report read that “June PMI data from IHS Markit signaled the joint-fastest improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector on record.”

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 05, 2021

Roaring Comeback of Reflation and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 broadening leadership and fresh reflationary ATHs are here – the FOMC „tightening“ hit notwithstanding. Energy, financials and industrials I discussed yesterday and before, were among the leaders, with tech not staying far behind. Crucially, the tech breadth was also improving – such rotations are the stock bull market‘s health. Neither the VIX nor the put/call ratio are arguing. The sentiment going into today‘s non-farm payrolls, remains constructive, and unlikely to result in reconstruction of the Fed tightening bets. Such was my real-time Twitter interpretation.

Credit markets remained constructive, and risk-on this time – that‘s in line with value upswing, accompanied by the Treasury yields‘ inability to retreat further. Near the top of its recent range, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading within the summer bond market calm atmosphere, and so are the beaten down inflation expectations at a time when:

(…) the dollar is catching a strong bid. We‘re still in a reflation, in the reopening trades stage – one where inflation expectations have been (unduly) hammered down while inflation hasn‘t taken a corresponding turn. Notably, commodities haven‘t been derailed in the least, so pay no attention to lumber – the real assets‘ world is much richer and profitable.

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Economics

Monday, July 05, 2021

China's xiaokang prosperity source of global hope / Economics / China Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Amid the centenary festivities, China’s success in development shows how peace and stability can foster sustained development, prosperity - and hope.

At the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, declared the completion of the goal of building China into “a moderately prosperous society in all respects.”

The achievement of this quest for xiaokang, which ensures basic security and welfare, is predicated on four decades of reforms and opening-up policies.
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Companies

Sunday, July 04, 2021

Atea Pharmaceuticals - AVIR - X10 Stock for Max Risk / Companies / BioTech

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge

Why has my focus shifted to biotech stocks and not more tech stocks?

Firstly, I have been investing in biotech stocks for DECADES, it's just that since 2015 my focus shifted to the emerging AI mega-trend to make sure I was invested to capitalise on a trend that was clear to me would span DECADES, at the time I thought I was probably getting in late on the AI Mega-trend but clearly that is always the case! WE ALWAYS THINK we're late to the party but this trend is going to run right into the end of the 2030's

This also explains why I hold the likes of GSK and JNJ amongst a string of smaller cap biotech stocks many of which have been disappearing from my portfolio over the years usually due to being taken over as it looks likely to be the case for GW Pharma later this year. So I need to replenish this once much loved and now neglected stock sector with a string of new smaller cap high risk stocks for the next 5 to 10 years.

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, July 04, 2021

Crypto Bear Market 2021 - Binance vs NicheHash Market Price Discrepancies - Ravencoin Example / Personal_Finance / cryptocurrency

By: HGR

Trading with Binance an Nicehash tends to throw up price anomalies between the 2, is this Binance gaming the market prices in their favour or is it to due with lack of volume in the smaller exchanges such as Nicehash as this example for Ravencoin price action illustrates, anywhere here's my latest video in attempting to capitalise on the crypto bear market of 2021.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 04, 2021

Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”.  Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.

The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months.  One simply can’t argue with the price range, trend and volatility that we’ve seen throughout all of 2020 and into the first half of 2021.  My team and I expect that volatility to continue, but at a slowly decreasing range into the end of 2021.  We also expect a price rotation/reversion may still happen in 2021 that may prompt an 8% to 12% downside price correction (possibly bigger).

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Companies

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Neurocrine Biosciences - NBIX - Low Risk Biotech X10 Stock / Companies / BioTech

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge

Why has my focus shifted to biotech stocks and not more tech stocks?

Firstly, I have been investing in biotech stocks for DECADES, it's just that since 2015 my focus shifted to the emerging AI mega-trend to make sure I was invested to capitalise on a trend that was clear to me would span DECADES, at the time I thought I was probably getting in late on the AI Mega-trend but clearly that is always the case! WE ALWAYS THINK we're late to the party but this trend is going to run right into the end of the 2030's

This also explains why I hold the likes of GSK and JNJ amongst a string of smaller cap biotech stocks many of which have been disappearing from my portfolio over the years usually due to being taken over as it looks likely to be the case for GW Pharma later this year. So I need to replenish this once much loved and now neglected stock sector with a string of new smaller cap high risk stocks for the next 5 to 10 years.

Secondly, our beloved AI stocks have been BID UP to high valuations, yes including Google, so they are not CHEAP, even after a 10% to 15% correction i.e. the likes of Microsoft and Amazon are discounting a lot of future earnings growth! Of course that does not necessarily mean that they are about to fall to what I would consider to be fair value let lone cheap levels as they did during March 2020 because at the end of the day they are GOOD stocks so usually command a healthy premium to invest in.

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Economics

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Central Banks RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! US Trending Towards Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I know it can get a bit tiring to hear me bang on with the mantra of rampant money printing inflation, BUT one can tend to get lost in the detail i.e. looking at individual stocks and assets and forget the BIG PICTURE which really is one of RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION!

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Companies

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Tips on How to Get a Business Attorney / Companies / SME

By: Dylan_Moran

Every business, regardless of its size or how long it has been around, should have a good lawyer on its side. There's just no knowing when legal issues could come up, and even innocent mistakes can cause a good deal of trouble for business owners. Read on to find some tips for how to get the best attorney for any business.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Gold in the age of Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Gold in the age of inflation
The star investment of the fifty-year era and the most reliable store of value

There has been considerable, and some would say tedious, discussion on the subject of inflation over the past several weeks. The Fed wants it. The markets await it. Investors and consumers worry about it. If it does come, the Fed thinks it will be transitory. Others believe it will persist. That said, the current discussion ignores an established historical reality: We already live and have lived with it for a very long time. The Age of Inflation began in August of 1971 when the United States disengaged the dollar from gold and ushered in the fiat money era. Thereafter, the inflationary process has progressively eaten away at our wealth and the purchasing power of our money. Now, some of the best minds in the investment business tell us that it is about to accelerate and that if we ignore it, we do so at our own peril.

To mark the occasion of the fiat money system’s golden anniversary, we offer two instructive charts. One is something of a myth-buster in that gold has decisively outperformed stocks during the fiat money era. Many will be surprised to learn that gold is up 4,500% since 1971, while stocks have played second fiddle at 3,375%. The other reveals at a glance the pernicious, ongoing debasement of the dollar and gold’s role as a hedge against it. The dollar lost 85% of its purchasing power since 1971, while gold, as just mentioned, gained nearly 4500%. If that does not serve as vindication of gold’s portfolio role in the era of fiat money, I don’t know what will. At the same time, consensus has it that cyclically, stocks are closer to a top than a bottom, and gold is closer to a bottom than a top.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Gold: Bearish Development Just Around the Corner? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While we might see a small uptick in gold prices soon, it’s not likely to last long. We should be prepared to open our parachutes any time now.

The decline in gold continues, and while we might see a small pop-up higher here, it’s unlikely to last. And why could gold move slightly higher and correct the recent declines?

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Housing-Market

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Al Humaidi Family Kuwait Real Estate Business Cues / Housing-Market / Dubai

By: Sumeet_Manhas

If your family is seeking to start a joint real estate venture, you may have already come to a central realization tied to the endeavor — it can be complicated. Unlike other businesses, a real estate venture can carry with it a number of unique considerations including which properties to invest in and how to develop projects. To get a better understanding of some of these issues, we’ve turned to the example set by the Al Humaidi Family Kuwait real estate operations. By examining the efforts of the family in this area, we can get a more holistic view of the challenges other families may face in the field of real estate.

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Companies

Friday, July 02, 2021

CRISPR - CRSP - GENE EDITING Stock Analysis - Risk Level 9 / Companies / BioTech

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge

Why has my focus shifted to biotech stocks and not more tech stocks?

Firstly, I have been investing in biotech stocks for DECADES, it's just that since 2015 my focus shifted to the emerging AI mega-trend to make sure I was invested to capitalise on a trend that was clear to me would span DECADES, at the time I thought I was probably getting in late on the AI Mega-trend but clearly that is always the case! WE ALWAYS THINK we're late to the party but this trend is going to run right into the end of the 2030's

This also explains why I hold the likes of GSK and JNJ amongst a string of smaller cap biotech stocks many of which have been disappearing from my portfolio over the years usually due to being taken over as it looks likely to be the case for GW Pharma later this year. So I need to replenish this once much loved and now neglected stock sector with a string of new smaller cap high risk stocks for the next 5 to 10 years.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, July 02, 2021

Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed for a "Bumpy Ride" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Money losers tend to be high-beta issues"

On Friday, June 25, the Russell indexes underwent their annual rebalancing.

In other words, stocks were moved from the Russell indexes like the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 based on their size.

This event usually coincides with a big jump in trading volume -- like it did on June 25 -- but generally it's an annual occurrence of little note.

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Economics

Friday, July 02, 2021

US Labor Shortage May Be Permanent / Economics / Employment

By: Patrick_Watson

According to some business owners and Wall Street pundits, US employers can’t hire enough people because unemployment benefits are too high. We’re paying people not to work, they say.

Certainly, some people who could work are milking the system. That’s sad, but is it the only reason all those jobs are unfilled? Probably not.

Nonetheless, several governors have decided to end the federally funded enhanced benefits. Instead of the planned September expiration, they will now disappear as soon as next week in some states.

If, in fact, benefits are what’s keeping people from working, labor shortages should ease in the states that end them. I think there’s more to the story, though. This problem was already there before those extra benefits. It’s more the result of larger trends that aren’t stopping. If anything, they are getting worse.
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Currencies

Friday, July 02, 2021

NFTs Continue to Grow in Popularity – Can they affect the broad cryptocurrency market? / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: S_N_Chatterjee

...

 


Companies

Thursday, July 01, 2021

ABBVIE - ABBV 116 - Cheap Low Risk Pharma Stock Investing - Risk 1 / Companies / BioTech

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge

Why has my focus shifted to biotech stocks and not more tech stocks?

Firstly, I have been investing in biotech stocks for DECADES, it's just that since 2015 my focus shifted to the emerging AI mega-trend to make sure I was invested to capitalise on a trend that was clear to me would span DECADES, at the time I thought I was probably getting in late on the AI Mega-trend but clearly that is always the case! WE ALWAYS THINK we're late to the party but this trend is going to run right into the end of the 2030's

This also explains why I hold the likes of GSK and JNJ amongst a string of smaller cap biotech stocks many of which have been disappearing from my portfolio over the years usually due to being taken over as it looks likely to be the case for GW Pharma later this year. So I need to replenish this once much loved and now neglected stock sector with a string of new smaller cap high risk stocks for the next 5 to 10 years.

Secondly, our beloved AI stocks have been BID UP to high valuations, yes including Google, so they are not CHEAP, even after a 10% to 15% correction i.e. the likes of Microsoft and Amazon are discounting a lot of future earnings growth! Of course that does not necessarily mean that they are about to fall to what I would consider to be fair value let lone cheap levels as they did during March 2020 because at the end of the day they are GOOD stocks so usually command a healthy premium to invest in.

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, July 01, 2021

INVESTING LESSON - AI Stocks Relative Strength - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock market corrections are useful in gauging what is going on under the hood of corporations long before any information makes it into the public arena. For instance looking at the relative strength of the top 5 AI stocks shows Google and Facebook showing relative strength, whilst Apple and Amazon are showing relative weakness with Microsoft in the middle. What this is saying is that one should definitely NOT make the mistake of....

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