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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed, and find out what do they imply for the gold market.

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. So let’s focus on the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed.

The first model is the smoothed recession probabilities for the United States developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger based on the research published in the International Economic Review and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. The odds are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

The Problem with Keynesian Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

I think Lord Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as an economic theory.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: EWI

Achieving and maintaining success as a stock market investor is a tall order.

You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next for the stock market.

One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Mainstream analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates mean higher stock prices, while rising rates mean lower stock prices.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe Gold is setting up for an incredible upside breakout move after reaching our predicted target near $1450. For those of you that have been following our research and Gold calls, we’ve nailed this move and our October 2018 predictive modeling call has continued to mirror (almost exactly) the price movement in Gold over the past  10+ months.  See the chart below.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Right on the Gold Bull Market - Audio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen had been calling for a gold breakout for a number of months. Some FSN Members snarkily doubted his call. However, they’re not doubting him any longer, what with gold breaking resistance and now hovering near $1400 the ounce. Chris oil call was also remarkably on the money, with oil crashing to the low $50’s from the mid $60’s. Chris is calling for silver to soon join the fun and then it will be off to the races.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

SPX and Dow are in BREAKOUT mode. There are things that are worrying even as markets climb to new highs. The new highs need to be confirmed via volume and market internals. We take a look at some of them.

Our Twitter feed has all the feed news as they release. Follow us on twitter

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress yesterday and effectively communicated that the Fed would lower rates at the end of this month. However with data not yet supportive of a rate cut and inflation starting to rear its head again, capital outflows remain a key risk for the US in case of a rate cut. Sensing the dilema, bond markets have started

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained / Personal_Finance / Educating Children

By: Anika_Walayat

Britain's 600,000 10 and 11 years got their Key Stage 2 SATS results this week with assessments and scores for English, Grammar and Maths tests that took place at the end of Key Stage 2 just prior to their move to secondary school in September. So find what the SATS results are all about, what do the terms GDS, EXS and WTS exactly mean our latest video.

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Companies

Friday, July 12, 2019

INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video / Companies / Immigration

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Are you ready for the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend?

In this series of videos I present my Top 10 AI stocks to invest in to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend.

My Top 10 AI stocks are ranked in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. So I consider my Top 5 stocks as primary, then the next 3 as secondary and the last 2 as far more risky tertiary stocks. And remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 12, 2019

The Hidden Reason Why Fed and "Systemically Important" Banks Oppose a Gold Standard / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Chairman Powell’s testimony this week was closely scrutinized not just for its economic implications but also for its political overtones. Powell cited “trade tensions” as cause for concern about the strength of the global economy. He clearly seemed to be blaming President Trump’s tariffs.

But if the tariffs are what ultimately move the Fed to cut rates, Trump will have finally gotten what he wants out of Powell. In recent weeks, Trump has stepped up his attacks on the central bank, calling it the biggest problem facing the economy, floating the idea of firing Powell, and suggesting his administration would match China’s and Europe’s "currency manipulation game."

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Commodities

Friday, July 12, 2019

Gold Price Selloff Risk High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold surged dramatically in recent weeks, powering higher to a decisive bull-market breakout.  Gold’s first major secular highs in years have really improved sentiment, with bullishness mounting.  But gold-futures buying fuel is largely exhausted, after the colossal amount expended to catapult gold back over $1400.  That leaves this metal at high risk of suffering a major selloff, a healthy correction in an ongoing bull market.

Even the most-powerful bull markets flow and ebb, taking two steps forward before one step back.  Gold is certainly no exception.  At best in late June, its current bull extended to modest 35.4% gains over 3.5 years.  Those weren’t linear, the path to gold’s recent breakout high was quite volatile.  It included a 29.9% upleg, a 17.3% correction, a 20.4% upleg, a 13.6% correction, and today’s upleg running 21.2% at best.

This alternating repeating bull-market pattern is simple, uplegs are inevitably followed by material selloffs often extending into correction territory.  Periodic corrections are essential to keep bulls healthy, working off the excessive greed that builds as uplegs peak.  That risks sucking in too much capital too soon, prematurely burning out bulls.  Corrections rebalance sentiment, bleeding away greed to extend bulls’ longevity.

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Politics

Friday, July 12, 2019

State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable / Politics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

While the willingness to abandon long held beliefs for political gain has always been a common trait among public figures, the spectacle has recently taken on shocking levels of casual audacity. The contempt for even minimal levels of intellectual consistency has allowed Kamala Harris to condemn Joe Biden for his past opposition to Federally mandated busing while simultaneously taking the exact same position herself. These somersaults are particularly common with former economic conservatives seeking to curry favor with President Trump's decidedly non-conservative policies.

We have seen former free-trader Larry Kudlow awkwardly embrace high tariffs and big deficits, and economist Stephen Moore disavow decades of monetary hawkishness to position himself as a potentially reliable Trump loyalist. But the most dizzying reversal came this week when supposedly conservative Reagan administration economist Arthur Laffer (in what I believe to be an audition for a job in the Trump Administration) hit the airwaves to make the case that the Federal Reserve should be run directly by the President, not by the Fed's supposedly independent governors. Come again? Direct political control of a central bank has always been the bogeyman of any conservative economist. Was he serious?

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 12, 2019

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Most market commentators remain confused, flirting between being bearish or bullish usually AFTER the fact, AFTER the market has risen or fallen. Take when I last looked at the Dow and the market was in a downtrend eyeing an assault on Dow 25,000. At the time the reasoning was 'surprise' failure to resolve the US China trade war for why stocks had fallen. All without understanding the underlying mega-trend drivers that remain constant regardless of what Trump announces or tweets or threatens, which are the trends towards war with China, Climate Change, the Inflation mega-trend (money printing), AI mega-trend and Africa's population explosion amongst others that come to mind. All of which were in motion BEFORE Trump came to office and will remain so for decades after Trump leaves office.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 12, 2019

Stock Investors Buckle Up, the Trade War is About to EXPLODE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

And when it does, smart investors will lock in TRIPLE DIGIT… and possibly even QUADRUPLE DIGIT RETURNS.

Stocks performed a backtest of the broken rising wedge formation (red lines in the chart below) yesterday.

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Commodities

Friday, July 12, 2019

Silver Price Very Long-term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Just for fun because I am a chart guy who all too often bores you (and me) to death with ratio and indicator charts and all too seldom makes charts just for the fun of it anymore…

So this long-term silver chart is just for the fun of it. What do we have here?

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Commodities

Friday, July 12, 2019

Powell Testimony Propels Gold Above $1,400 - the Countdown to July’s FOMC Is On / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Hot Wednesday is behind us. We had both the Powell’s testimony to the Congress and the released minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. The biggest yesterday’s winner is clearly gold. If you would like to know why – and what situation the yellow metal is in currently – we invite you to read our today’s article!

Powell Fails to Push Back Against Market Expectations of Rate Cut in July

What a day! Gold is back above $1,400, as one can see in the chart below. What happened exactly?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers rely on a number of proprietary tools and cycle forecasting technology.  Additionally, we use custom index charts to help measure price cycles, trends, support & resistance and many other aspects of the markets.  Recently, we posted an article relating to the US Dollar and foreign currencies using custom index techniques.  In the past, we’ve highlighted our Custom Price Cycle index that we use to gauge market sentiment, topping and bottoming setups.  All of these tools are essential for our team of researchers while they attempt to identify trade setups and larger market events.

Currently, we are highlighting a number of our custom index chart that suggest a market top may only be 3 to 5 weeks away and the setup of this market top may surprise many traders. We posted a good forecast chart here also.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Platinum Price vs Gold Price / Commodities / Platinum

By: Submissions

Platinum has not been this cheap vs. gold since 1907 AD.

In other words, in over 110 years, we have not seen platinum values slump this far versus gold.

Here at SD Bullion, we have covered Platinum fundamental investment factors as well as information about supply-demand factors at play today.

South Africa is the major miner of platinum ore in the world, accounting for about 70% of all new line platinum annually.

But given that we often have bullion sales on Platinum coins and Platinum bars.

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Companies

Thursday, July 11, 2019

What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

There are 2,208 billionaires on earth, according to Forbes. But only three are rich enough to qualify as “centi-billionaires”—worth $100 billion or more.

Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos is #1.

Microsoft founder (MSFT) Bill Gates is #2.

#3 will probably surprise you.

It’s not super-investor Warren Buffett. It’s not Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg. It’s not a hedge fund manager, a banker, or a Russian oligarch.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

Even as markets climbed above to 3000 on SPX, we are fairly bearish on equities for the forseeable future. Algo continue to trip the stops higher. The levels to watch are mentioned below on where you could position your stops.

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Companies

Thursday, July 11, 2019

This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Robert_Ross

In late June, San Francisco banned e-cigarette sales completely. That means no brick and mortar sales. And no e-cigarette deliveries for online purchases.

Many cities already restrict vaping and e-cigarette sales. But San Francisco is the first major US city to ban sales outright.

Granted, it’s a cultural and political outlier. But other cities are already considering similar laws. So this looks like the start of a bigger trend that could weigh heavily on certain tobacco companies.

Despite this thread, tobacco companies are still a great, recession-proof investment. And there’s one tobacco stock that will benefit from the crackdown on e-cigs big time.

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