Thursday, October 19, 2023
All Eyes are on Nvidia NVDA Stock / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
$433 - EGFS 106%, 203%, PE 141, 201% of range, Fundamentals 3.9
The buying range for Nvidia is $322 to $262, which would take a spectacular collapse of 26% on the current price to the top of the range, never mind the waterfall of 40% down to $262, so the buying range is a tough ask which are a function of the fact of Nvidia's over valuation, as was the case during the 2nd half of 2021 there is no point in chasing after overvaluation a lesson learned by all those who held on during the roller coaster ride from $330 down to $110. So yes it is possible that Nvidia pulls another rabbit out of the hat and all we get was the drop to $400, that is the reality of the stock market, you don't always get what you want. And no, you can not invest with the benefit of hindsight!
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Thursday, October 19, 2023
Unjustified Stock Market Investors Gloom and Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m sensing a lot of unjustified doom and gloom from investors.
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham recently told Bloomberg, “No one should invest in the US.”
I have great respect for the guy, but c’mon… he’s been predicting Armageddon for a decade straight.
And look at all these exciting breakthroughs going on…
Thursday, October 19, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Since my last article MPW and Redfin have sliced through supports to delivery huge buying opps which saw my exposure in MPW jump to 207% invested and 101% in Redfin, also heavily bought was MGNI now 120% invested vs 60% of 2 weeks ago. Some patron's pointed to BAD news stories, well you need BAD news for such price falls to happen! Stocks don't tend to plunge on GOOD NEWS!
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Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Stock Market Earnings Season Trend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Since the stock market topped out at 4610 the trend has been down in line with my road map of over 10 months ago!
Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023
S&P targets a trend to 4600 by Mid Summer 2023 before correcting to below 4100 by late October.
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Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Michael Burry Nothing Burger Stock Market CRASH Warnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently Michel 'Nothing Berger' Burry has put BIG SHORT position on the stock market to the tune of $1.6 billion, as reports the fear mongering MSM.
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Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Reasons to use Crypto Bank Cards / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: S_N_Chatterjee
In response to the growing interest in cards within the industry, Wirex has recently introduced its crypto debit card. It is a Mastercard-backed debit card that allows users to easily use and spend their cryptocurrencies making it easier to integrate assets into transactions. With the user in mind, these convenient crypto bank cards provide a way for users to convert their trading profits and freely spend them at any time and place they choose. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
How to Capitalise on the UK and US Bond Markets Blood Bath of 2023 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final part of my extensive analysis Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, lock it in now at $5 as this will soon rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
The Stock Market Got It Wrong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As we look back upon another interesting week in the market, there are a few standout matters I would like to point out.
To begin with, I saw the following quote from an interview with well-known economist Austan Goolsbee:
“The timing of the selloff has been something of a “puzzle” given there was no major change in the Fed’s latest projections.”
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
How Fast will AI Gut Hollywood? / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s only a matter of time before someone builds “HollywoodGPT.”
The S&P 500 is slightly up as I write this morning.
Fresh highs in Treasury yields have put pressure on stocks. But I’m not worried about rising rates. As I recently explained, stocks typically go up during rate-hiking cycles!
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Monday, October 09, 2023
Investing in UK Bond ETFs - -GLTL and 3GIL / Interest-Rates / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GLTL.L - £39 - UK Gilts 15+Yr
UK bonds have been obliterated, portfolios built up in bond funds over the past 10 years have been wiped out! Now you know why I have avoided bonds. Pittance in return during their bull market followed by a spectacular collapse, all whilst the lemmings encouraged stock investors to seek safety in bonds! This bond fund has COLLAPSED BY 60% off its high of £82! Imagine those who had parked the bulk of their cash in such funds by following the advice of FA's! Only discovering the catastrophe when they get their annual statements, A lot of TV's will have had remotes thrown at them! This is why there is no FREE LUNCH! It is YOUR MONEY it is upto YOU to DO THE WORK and understand what you are invested in else PAY THE PRICE of a 60% wipeout in what is supposed to be an ultra safe low volatility asset! When the exact opposite is true! If you lost similar on UK bonds then it's your fault for being LAZY! DO THE WORK!
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Monday, October 09, 2023
Why You Should Expect a Once-in-a-Lifetime Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: EWI
U.S. credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion
On a national level, a debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay back its government debt. This might result from government spending exceeding tax revenues for an extended period.
On an individual level, a crisis can result from too little income and too much debt -- that simple. This sometimes means defaulting on a car loan, for example, or even declaring bankruptcy.
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Monday, October 09, 2023
The flames of Hamas, Israel, apartheid, and Palestine / Politics / Palestine
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Israeli-Hamas War is a logical result of 50 years of failed military policies. Assertive pledges of “national security” will not achieve peace in the Middle East. That requires inclusive economic development.On Saturday, Palestinian militant groups, reportedly led by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups, launched a coordinated offensive against nearby Israeli cities, Gaza border crossings, adjacent military installations, and civilian settlements.
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr - US Equiv TLT ETF
Peaked at $523, collapsed to it's recent low of near 50% to $276, imagine all those who swallowed the financial advisors and media sales pitch to be 60% in bonds because they are 'lower risk' then stocks! This is HORRIFIC! MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RISK FOR A FRACTION OF THE RETURN OF STOCKS! HORRIFIC! Still it gives a higher volatility potential to accumulate into right now. Potential upside over 2-4 years is for $422 for a 52% on the current price!
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTM.L £135.8 - US Treasury 7-10Yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This bond fund is down 29% from it's high with potential upside target of £175 for a 27% gain over a target 2-4 years, so a lower / risk lower return component of the portfolio. I've been accumulating since £139 with limit orders ever £1 lower, as well as timed based buys.
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
Silver Bulls Are the Walking Wounded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Silver has been a major underperformer in recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields and a stronger USD Index.
With silver gunning for its 2023 lows, the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weakness has been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy a meaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better than the fundamentals at uncovering support and resistance, and our premium Gold Trading Alert has all of those details.
Sunday, October 01, 2023
UK and US Inverted Yield Curves and Bond Funds / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curves
At the late 2021 peak of the stock market the US short end yield was zero, long end (20 year) at about 2%. so the yield curve was normal. By the time of the bear market low was starting to invert, with the short end 3.5% vs long end 3.8%, fast forward to day we have the short end at 5.5%, Whilst most recent yield action has seen the short end and the long end nudge higher, hence offering an opportunity to accumulate near the bond markets lows.
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
Investing in UK and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And we arrive out our final destination, one of where doom and gloom prevails, most fear much higher BOND market interest rates! Where we have the likes of Bill Ackman literally announcing he is shorting US bonds AFTER they have fallen! Where were they a year go when that was the time to short bonds?
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
Gold Market Gyrate on U.S. Government Shutdown Theatrics / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets got hammered earlier this week as interest rates continued their relentless march higher.
The 10-year Treasury note recorded its highest yield since 2007. Meanwhile, the average conventional 30-year mortgage rate surged to 7.31% -- a level not seen since 2000.
Higher rates are putting pressure on housing and financial markets. They are also hitting consumers and small businesses. For now, though, the economy hasn’t entered into a recession – at least not officially.
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
AI Regulation - Urgent Need For A Sherman Act Mark Two / Politics / AI
By: Christopher_Quigley
It is almost certain that the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring about even greater consolidation of power among the top American tech companies. These include Amazon, Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Advanced Micro Devices, NVIDA and Intel.This development presents a great opportunity for these companies but it also presents a great threat to the very fabric of capitalism and democracy. I believe, before it is too late, it is time that the power of these tech companies be broken and thus it is time for a new Sherman Act.
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Saturday, September 30, 2023
10 Tips To Get The Best Return From Your Investment / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
Every investor in financial development looks for the secret to maximizing returns. But how can one ensure their money works as hard as they do in the face of a constantly changing economic landscape? You've arrived in high income investing, where clever tactics can dramatically increase your earning potential.
Balancing risk and reward is not just about storing your money; it's about using it wisely to generate the greatest returns. In this post, we'll share 10 doable suggestions for improving your investment strategy, guaranteeing that you're not simply saving money but also significantly increasing your wealth.
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