Sunday, February 23, 2020

CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket higher, now totaling over 600 infected and 6 deaths. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases! This whilst reports of mass cremations taking place.

Meanwhile in Europe, Italy has an outbreak under way with over 100 testing positive and 2 deaths with several hundred thousands of people put under quarantine, a taste of what is to come to Europe as the virus is clearly not being contained. This whilst western health care institutions such as the NHS following the Chinese playbook of painting a picture of being fully prepared to cope with outbreaks. Despite the fact that the NHS can barely cope with regular flu let alone a virus that is 15X more deadly resulting in 100X as many seriously ill patients than influenza.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Gold Price At $1500 Is Fair And Accurate / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Is $1500 a reasonable price for gold? Some of the more ardent gold “bulls” might say no. A price of $2000 per ounce should sound better to them. That particular number is likely more popular because gold’s price didn’t quite get there eight years ago, stopping just shy of $1900 per ounce.

Similar behavior occurred after 1980, when gold’s price assent was stopped at $850. At that time, $1000 became the price projection of choice.

In both cases, the expectations for gold were likely born out of desire, rather than fundamentals.

So, how can we know what is a fair and accurate price for gold today – right now?

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Ways to Find Startup Capital / Companies / Debt & Loans

By: Submissions

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My analysis of 30th December 2019 (Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020) concluded in an overall outlook for the stock market for 2020 to target a trend towards 30,750 to 31,000 for a gain of between 8% to 9% for the year. This acts as a road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness as the Dow charts it's trend through the year.

A linear trend to 31,000 by end of 2020 would price the Dow at 28,830 today, against the last close of 29,102 which shows +272 point deviation against the linear trend, despite early January's surge to +750 that many had taken to imply 30,000 was just around the corner, instead resolving in a -600 deviation.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

China's Shanghai Composite has been in a large-scale downtrend for about 13 years.

So, when the news of the coronavirus outbreak hit, it came as less of a shock to Elliott Wave International's global analysts.

You may ask, "What in the world does one have to do with the other?"

Our just-published February Global Market Perspective provides insight:

When a major infectious disease breaks out, we find that a stock market correction has usually preceded it. That observation is germane right now because China's Shanghai Composite has been tracing out a large-degree correction since its peak in 2007 and, not coincidentally, China has experienced numerous outbreaks of highly lethal infectious diseases over the 13-years-and-counting period.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a hard look at various charts and sees an impending breakdown of commodity and tech markets.

In this update we are going to review a small but important range of commodities and lead indicators that strongly suggest the seemingly endless bull market in U.S. equities is living on borrowed time and will end sooner rather than later. Given how long it has lasted and how extremely overvalued the market has become, the downturn will likely start with a crash phase.

Regardless of what the eventual impact of the coronavirus epidemic is, U.S. stock markets, in particular, seem to be in a state of denial about the actual real-world consequences of the Chinese shutdown and its impact on the global supply chain and corporate profitability everywhere, and some elements even seem to be gloating about China's misfortune and predicament, completely oblivious to the fact that this is going to have a negative impact on almost everyone.

The following points were made by a reader, and while I don't necessarily concur with all he has written, I am open to the possibility that all or much of this may be correct, and if it is, we are looking at serious problems emerging before much longer.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold rallied by $17.20 yesterday (1.08%), while silver soared by $0.42 (2.35%), which means that silver more than doubled gold’s rally. Silver is outperforming gold, which was both profitable, and informative. Gold miners moved higher even more (4.60% in case of the HUI Index), indicating that the final part of the rally is not yet over but rather that we are still in it. Alternatively, it could mean that yesterday’s session was the top, but given today’s pre-market moves higher in gold and silver, the former seems much more likely. In other words, gold and silver are likely to move higher shortly.

One question is how far are they likely to move, but the key question is how likely it is that they will indeed move higher.

At first sight, the situation is as bullish as it gets:

• the USD Index might be topping here while being very overbought from the short-term point of view
• gold, silver, and mining stocks showed exceptional strength by rallying despite USD’s rally
• gold and silver broke above their declining resistance lines
• miners showed strength and created a bullish price gap yesterday

Indeed, these are all factors that will likely make one consider jumping in the precious metals market with both feet without warm-up. Caution is warranted, though. There are also other factors and a what-if case that’s becoming increasingly important that need to be considered. While at it, take a look at the other gold trading tips to consider.

Let’s start with the last two points.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

FANG stocks seem uniquely positioned for some extreme rotation over the next 6+ months.  The continued capital shift that has taken place over the past 5+ years has driven investment and capital into the Technology sector – much like the DOT COM rally.  The euphoric rally in the late 1990s seems quite similar to today.

The biggest difference this time is that global central banks have pushed an easy-money monetary policy since just after 2000.  The policies and rallies that took place after 9/11 were a result of policies put in place by George W. Bush and Alan Greenspan.  Our research team believes these policies set up a  process where foreign markets gorged on cheap US Dollars to expand industry and manufacturing throughout the late 1990s and most of the early 2000s.  This process sets up a scenario where the US pumped US Dollars into the global markets after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and foreign markets gobbled this capital up knowing they could expand infrastructure, industry, and manufacturing, then sell these products back to the US and other markets for profits.  Multiple QE attempts by the US Fed continued to fuel this capital shift.

Friday, February 21, 2020

Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We in the West are in still the CALM before the Coronavirus STORM stage, both in terms of infections and in terms of economic impact as we witness China's economy effectively grind to a halt, a harbinger of what to expect to come that the financial markets are STILL NOT discounting! For China's Coronavirus statistics grossly under report the number of infections by several multiples that this analysis will attempt to determine the true magnitude of China's outbreak which even the Chinese CDC now admits that their statistics are under reporting by significant degree the actual number of infected. Which has not just been my consistent view since the Coronavirus story first broke a month ago, but many scientists around the world have questioned China's data as measured across several metrics such as the unrealistic day to day change in infection numbers that for want of a better word were unnatural.

Basically China cannot test all suspected cases for the virus, instead only those who make into hospital tend to get tested, and thus excluding all those who either don't turn up to hospital i.e. told to self quarantine at home or are turned away from hospitals because there is no capacity to deal with more people clogging up the corridors, that and the tendency to brush bad news under the carpet then be reasonable for passing it up the command chain.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

It appeared that the bears firmly took the reins of yesterday’s session, but most of their gains were history before the closing bell. Have we seen an important turning point for oil?

Let’s start with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com and http://stooq.com ).

Crude oil opened yesterday’s session with the green bullish gap that’s slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Although the bulls took the commodity a bit higher after the market open, this strong resistance encouraged the sellers to act.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Stocks are entering the holiday-shortened week on a strong note. There was no selloff on Friday, as has been the case three preceding weeks in a row. This weekend, there were no spooky coronavirus headlines. Stocks finished on Friday close to their yearly highs, and the beat goes on. In light of today’s premarket decline, the following question is in order. Does the beat really go on?

We’ll start the thorough examination with the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Stocks built on last weeks’ gains, and keep trading farther and farther away from the upper border of the rising purple trend channel. While weekly volume doesn’t flash any warning signs of an impending reversal, what about the other indicators?

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Coronavirus, the topic du jour. It is still the major threat for the global health and economy. But we should not forget about other geopolitical and economic developments. What do they imply for the gold market?

Coronavirus, China’s Economy and Gold Prices

The number of cases of coronavirus reported by the WHO have increased from 45,171 cases and 1,115 deaths by February 12 to 51,867 cases and 1,669 deaths by February 16, 2020. However, the number of new cases is slowing down, which suggests that the epidemic could reach a turning point within weeks. This is of key importance not only for the global health but also for the global economy, as the sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover. As a reminder, the quarantines of the whole cities like Wuhan and other compulsory measures disrupted the supply chains and hampered the Chinese economy.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

Unfortunately the Coronavirus storm is going to come to every nation, including the UK which is currently in the calm before the storm stage, perhaps become a little complacent due to the virus having been contained to date, all whilst the virus continues to spread globally courtesy of infected Chinese travelers escaping the peoples republic of China.

This video details strategies for preventing catching the virus in the first instance, and strategies for boosting ones immune system, so that if infected we won't be one of the unlucky 20% who need hospitalisation following infection.

So watch the video so that we are all prepared for when the inevitable outbreaks start taking place across Britain's cities, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, London.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The analysis of the precious metals market isn’t just gold analysis – there are times when silver rises to the forefront of everyone’s attention. And we fully expect such a moment of the white metal stealing the spotlight to arrive shortly. What lessons can we draw from the silver chart?

The key analogy in silver (in addition to the situation being similar to mid-90s) continues to be the one between 2008 and the 2016 – now periods.

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic / Politics / Pandemic

By: HGR

This video detals how to protect ourselves from the coming Coronavirus strom and unfortunately as the video also explains, COVID-19 IS coming to ALL nations. We outside of asia are probably no more than a couple of weeks away from when the Coronavirus pandemic starts to inflict damage on our soeciety and economy as we have been witnessing take place in China as the virus outbreaks take hold.

Two strategies are deployed, the first being to reduce risks of becoming infected. And the second is to prepare the way to survive the virus if infected with as mild an illness as possible.

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

David Smith: Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com. David, it's good to talk to you as always and how are you my friend?

David Smith: I'm just fine and it's great to be back, Mike.

Mike Gleason: Yeah, well it's been a handful of months since we had you on, and I've got a lot of topics to discuss today so we'll get right into it. Now to start out, here we are about a month and a half into the new year. Metals prices perked up in December but haven't really done much since that first week in January when it looked like we were about to head to war with Iran, which was a short-lived crisis thankfully. But in our view, markets are incredibly complacent, David. Stock prices just keep moving higher and higher. Nobody seems to be worried about risk, this despite there being plenty of reason for concern. To name a few, we've got a virus outbreak. There continues to be extraordinary activity in the repo markets – officials still haven't really bothered to explain what's going on there. And Brexit is finally happening. Maybe we're missing something, but it really feels like markets ignore all this stuff completely.

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator / Personal_Finance / Gaming

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Alexis Kennedy’s Cultist Simulator launched on May 31, 2018 to love-it-or-hate-it reviews and sales of 50,000 copies within the first month. After the launch, Alexis and his business partner Lottie Bevan started to see retaining the momentum for the game as their biggest challenge, with bumps in sales predominantly coming from price markdowns, occasional releases of new content and newfound attention from either streamers playing the game or events on Steam.

Data from the game’s release showed that most of the traffic and attention for the game came from Steam’s home page, “Friend is in game” notifications, and recommendations yielding over 100M impressions over the game’s lifetime.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Stock Market Potential Short-term top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.

SPX Intermediate trend: 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

In Part One of this article I exposed the numerous false narratives being peddled to the masses, as this Fourth Turning is entering the intense phase headed towards an unknown climax.

I’ve been expecting the next shoe to fall in this Fourth Turning for years, but the financial elite have pulled the debt levers to keep the Ponzi scheme alive far longer than a reasonable person would expect. We are only six weeks into 2020 and it seems like a year’s worth of major events have already occurred. The year started with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Iraq.

For the next week the world was awash in rhetoric about World War III and possible revolution in Iran. Accusations of Trump using the Wag the Dog method to deflect the negative press from the impeachment hearings were rampant among the half of the country that despises Trump. Soleimani was lauded as a hero by the left and a terrorist by the right. Now, the entire episode seems like ancient history, as more interesting squirrels have arisen for the propaganda media to chase.

The entire month of January was occupied by the ongoing coup/impeachment against Donald Trump. Schiff, Nadler and Pelosi doing their best impression of the three stooges, conducted a laughable prosecution in the House, revealing this was nothing more than a desperate attempt to avoid losing to Trump in a November landslide. The predictable trial in the Senate resulted in an acquittal and Trump’s popularity soaring to all-time highs, as independents realized the Democrats misused the power of impeachment for purely political purposes. Trump’s SOTU address infuriated Pelosi to such an extent it provoked her into acting like a petulant child, tearing up the speech. Future campaign ads wrote themselves.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Gold Price Is Getting Ready For Its Next Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

In late October and again in November, I began preparing my subscribers for the last rally phase we experienced in the metals complex. I even penned a number of public articles outlining my expectations for the same. In fact, on November 11, I published an article entitled "Gold Is Likely Approaching A Local Bottom." As we now know, gold actually struck its bottom at the time within 24 hours of that article. And, I then reiterated my expectations in a blog post at the end of November entitled "Buy Gold On Black Friday." Even at that time, the GLD was in the 137 region before it began its run almost 10% higher since that time.

Then, on January 5 of this year, I published another article entitled "We Are Approaching A Pullback In Gold."