Saturday, September 01, 2018
A Close Look at the Bitcoin Bubble / Currencies / Bitcoin
A few weeks ago on CNBC, an analyst compared the bitcoin bubble to the early internet bubble.What?!
We’ve been saying that since late December 2017, when bitcoin was just starting to crash.
And oh, did it crash.
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Saturday, September 01, 2018
US Interest Rates - A Pound of Cure / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
This week, as investors and economists fixate on record highs set by major stock market indices, they have ignored much more significant developments that emerged from the Federal Reserve's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech that somehow was almost universally interpreted as a reiteration of his commitment to continue to raise rates throughout the next few years. "Steady as she goes" was the takeaway from just about any news outlet. But the Chairman's actual message was essentially the opposite of what the media reported. From my perspective, it provided evidence that President Trump has succeeded in getting Powell's mind right on the need for the Fed to continue to stimulate the economy, no matter how much evidence emerges that it is already over-stimulated.
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Saturday, September 01, 2018
The Age of Change Is Coming / Companies / Technology
I’m often called the “muddle-through guy.” When I consider opposing scenarios or opinions, I figure reality will be somewhere in between. That’s right more often than you might suspect.
So, let’s consider two seemingly conflicting ideas.
- Major economic pain is coming.
- We have a bright, prosperous economic future.
Can both of those be right? I think so.
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Saturday, September 01, 2018
Upside Targets for Gold, Gold Stocks & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
After a vicious selloff precious metals have stabilized. Its not a surprise given the breadth and sentiment extremes we noted and had predicted earlier. Although recent gains have met some resistance, the immediate path of least resistance should be higher. Let’s take a look at the key support and resistance levels for the metals and the miners.
Gold has retreated after hitting $1220/oz a few days ago. That was the first area of resistance for this rebound. The next resistance level would be around $1235. If Gold can surpass $1235 then look for a move up to $1260. There is very strong resistance above $1260 while $1180 should be strong support.
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Saturday, September 01, 2018
S&P Makes 4 Consecutive All-time Highs in August. Like 1987? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
New-all time highs in August for the U.S. stock market are rare because the stock market’s seasonality in August isn’t particularly bullish. But you know what’s even rarer? 4 consecutive all-time highs in August.
As of yesterday, the S&P made 4 consecutive all-time highs (CLOSE $) in August.
The last time this happened was in August 1987, just before the S&P made a “big correction”.
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Saturday, September 01, 2018
Silver DSLV 3X Short ETF Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
Today DSLV 3 X short silver etf, is breaking out from a possible bearish falling wedge. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 150 shares at the market at 34.74 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the 50 day ema which is currently at 30.06. ZSL is a 2 X leveraged etf if you don’t want all the leverage. DSLV can be pretty volatile so take small bites. A backtest to the top rail would come into play around the 34.15 area for a slightly lower risk entry point.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Market Participants Betting on Nafta Deal between US and Canada / Currencies / Canadian $
The Canadian Dollar strengthened to a two month high against US Dollar earlier this week. Market participants seem to bet on possible inclusion of Canada in a new Nafta pact. The U.S. has just concluded a successful bilateral talk with Mexico on Monday. Under the new agreement, cars need to have 75% of their content originate in the U.S and Mexico. The current Nafta requires 62.5% originate within North America. Under the new deal, 40-45% of auto content need to be made by workers who make more than $16 per hour, favoring the U.S. and Canada.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
If You Consider Your Home an Investment, Read This / Housing-Market / US Housing
Is your home an investment?
Some say yes.
Some say no.
I say:
- It is an investment
- Not a great investment
- But for a lot of people, the best investment
Let’s unpack.
Friday, August 31, 2018
Dow How Much Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
Lucifer was loved in heaven the day before he fell.
Reference: SP500 Cycle Review
The angels today are: Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NetFlix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL). These stocks are loved by the masses, so much so there is a sellers strike. There is no supply of stock float, as no one is selling hence prices rises month after month.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Are Silver and Gold 'at the Flood'? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
There is a tide in the affairs of men...
Thus, begins one of the most famous quotes ever uttered, taken from Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar. Brutus, talking to Cassius, says, "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune..."
A flood tide takes place at the very crest in the water's height. Once the "tide turns," there is no stopping its ebb until, much later, it reaches an extended, even a minus low.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
The Final Gold Bull Market Confirmation Is Very Close / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
We are getting very close to what I believe is the final confirmation of the coming multi-year gold bull market. Although it is very clear that gold is going higher from around these levels, a move pass the $1375 area would be that final confirmation, based on the update of this previously shown comparison:
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Eleven Reasons Why I Am Super Bullish On Gold and Silver. / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
The Ducks are Lining Up!
This chart is courtesy Real Investment Advice.com and borrowed from a recent article: ‘Wicksell’s Elegant Model’. The brown areas in the chart highlight the periods when ‘real rates’ were and are negative. Gold tends to perform best during those periods.
Friday, August 31, 2018
Recommendation for Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets.
I plan to post a few charts summarizing the new reports, but because I’m sounding off on bonds for now (or in a moment) and don’t need all the detail to support my argument, I’ll share only a short summary of the first report.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
What is Content Marketing? Why It Still Matters in 2018 / Companies / Internet
Content marketing is one of the most effective ways to build your brand. Unlike interruption marketing, which used to be the norm before the internet, content marketing wins people over. Many well-known marketers now believe that content marketing isn’t something you should do, but something you must do. It isn’t a nice afterthought but a necessity.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
How to Invest in The Farming and Agriculture Industries / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
Agriculture is always a solid choice to invest. People always need to eat no matter the current economic outlook. This is why many people consider agricultural investments to be recession proof. The good news is that you don’t actually have to own a farm to invest in them. Here is a look at how to invest in farms, all without having to actually own one.
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
It's now over 1 month since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
What's So "Cryptic" About Trading Cryptocurrencies? / Currencies / Bitcoin
Lots and lots. Trading is not easy, period. But a few things can help.
Here's a cool parlor trick: If you want to bring a loud, rowdy room to a screeching silence, ask if anyone can explain how cryptocurrencies work.
Cue crickets chirping.
Turns out, the "crypto" part of the name originally signified the encrypted nature of digital assets and their anonymous owners. But it's proven foretelling, as cryptocurrencies have become synonymous with a cryptic impenetrability the likes of which no modern mainstream financial market -- especially not one so fervently embraced -- has known.
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
Social Media vs the Constitution / Politics / US Politics
An ancient Latin saying goes: “Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi” (what is permissible for Jupiter, is not for an ox). It feels very much on topic when social media are concerned. And as the heat over their censorship is turned up, it may well be the decisive factor.
Reuters reiterates today that on May 23, Manhattan US District Judge Naomi Reice Buchwald ruled that Donald Trump’ Twitter account is a public forum and blocking Twitter users for their views violates their right to free speech under the First Amendment. The same, says the ruling, applies to other government officials’ accounts.
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
Lucozade Win Larazade Lara Croft Tomb Raider Prizes - Don't Bother! / ConsumerWatch / Freebies and Comps
Lucozade's latest promotion aptly named Larazade seeking to capitalise on the success of the latest game in the Lara Croft Tomb Raider franchise, with the promo featuring a healthy list of potential prizes to be won all for just entering the code off of a Larazade lucozade bottle. Such as £1000 X40, 100 XBox One consoles and 200 Tomb raider games. All of which sounds good on paper, however there is a fly in the ointment which is that when one comes to trying to decipher the codes on the bottles as our following video illustrates of why this promotion is probably one to give a miss!
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
Booming Industries: How Online Gaming is Set to Lead the Way / Companies / Gambling
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