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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

UK House Prices Momentum Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK house prices momentum soared to over 10% per annum after the bull market broke out of it's 0% to 5% momentum range that it had been in for most of the 2010's. Instead it looks likely the UK is entering into a 10% to 7% momentum range which suggest to continue to expect year on year gains for several more YEARs in the range of 10% to 6%! Yes we will get corrections i.e. 2 or 3 months of mildly falling prices that I am sure will have the perma bears crowing of top being in and a crash just around the corner, but this bull market is far from done and momentum suggests to expect strong house price inflation for at least the next 3 years.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

Expert Michael Ballanger reviews this week's market updates from Wednesday's FOMC meeting to his outlook on Getchell Gold Corp., which he maintains is a "pound-the-table Buy."

Firstly, if Wednesday’s FOMC meeting featuring Chairman Jerome (I have tools!) Powell did nothing else, it did accentuate just how incompetent they are. Powell stood in front of the cameras and told the world that the American economy was “strong” while one of his own branches, the Atlanta Fed, reported just a day earlier that growth had slowed to 0.00%, which is anything but “strong.”

“Stocks are super-unattractive when the Fed is loosening tightening and interest rates are falling rising. Don’t fight the Fed.”
— Legendary Fund Manager Marty Zweig

As the afternoon wore on, stocks moved higher thinking that the .75% rate hike to be followed by more .75% rate hikes throughout the year (targeting Fed Funds at 3.5%) should be seen as a bullish signal. Reductions in the Fed balance sheet assets and sharply rising rates are about as far from a bullish signal as one can get, so in the last hour, a 600-point Dow rally became a 300-point uptick setting the stage for today’s wake-up call, and 741-point slide.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing / Economics / Recession 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The U.S. economy appears headed for a hard landing.

After months of ignoring the steadily growing inflation problem, the Federal Reserve is now using monetary blunt force to try to rein in rising prices.

Fed policymakers have effectively decided that inflation is so out of hand, they are willing to induce an economic slowdown that will reduce aggregate demand for goods and services.

The recent carnage in the stock market suggests that the Fed’s suddenly aggressive rate hikes are going to crimp consumer borrowing and hurt retail sales.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered / Personal_Finance / Investing 2022

By: Steve_Barker

Although the world seems to have gone haywire recently, one location remains a bastion of opportunity. The European Union (EU) is an enormous market that is considered one of the big three economic engines of the world (the others being the United States and China). With a plethora of opportunities for budding businesspersons, the EU offers a unique chance to conduct business in one of the world's most desirable regions. This post will explore some of the ways in which you could invest in this fantastic place in order to enhance your wealth and quality of life.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation / Personal_Finance / Investing 2022

By: Steve_Barker

Inflation is a natural occurrence in any economy. Over time, prices for goods and services will gradually increase as the cost of production rises. This can be a problem for people who have saved money because their funds will be worth less over time. In order to protect your assets from inflation, you need to invest them in a way that will maintain or grow their value. In this blog post, we will discuss some of the best ways to do that!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 20, 2022

AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The stocks bear market continues with most AI tech stocks putting in new bear market lows during the past week, with key exceptions being Facebook and AVGO. Whilst Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia were the weakest stocks of the week, though all stocks rallied strongly Friday led by AMD which ended the week up 10% followed by Micron at +6% which are definitely two stocks to aim to accumulate during any further market weakness.

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Commodities

Monday, June 20, 2022

Gold/Gold miners fundamental checkup / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

As they leverage the macro, what’s good for gold is even better for gold miners

After last week’s article, in which we noted a unique move on ‘CPI Friday’ as gold and the miners put in an expected test of the lows and quickly reversed upward, unique among a world full of bearish markets…

A pivotal juncture for gold and gold stocks

…let’s take a checkup on and important fundamental consideration in the wake of FOMC and the .75% rate hike that everyone knew was coming.

But first I want to remind readers that this (NFTRH & NFTRH.com) is not a place to visit if you want to get pumped on oil, copper and general (and cyclical) commodities and resources along with gold. It is the place to visit if you want discrete commodity analysis amid cyclical/inflationary conditions and/or a guide to the proper macro fundamentals that should be in place for gold and gold stocks in their rare but unique utility as a counter-cyclical market, unlike commodities and stock markets.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, June 20, 2022

Personal Finance Tips: How To Get Out Of A Tough Financial Situation / Personal_Finance / Financial Education

By: Steve_Barker

Getting out of a tough financial situation can be difficult, but it is not impossible. There are many things you can do to improve your financial situation and get yourself back on track. In this blog post, we will discuss some personal finance tips that can help you get out of a tough spot. We will also provide some helpful resources that you can use for additional support. So, if you are struggling financially, please read on!

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Housing-Market

Sunday, June 19, 2022

UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This graph shows that following Brexit UK house prices consolidated in GDP terms for a number of years towards trend before the current blast higher driven by the governments maniac pandemic spending binge .However, house prices are NOT that distant from trend so unless there IS a significant recession around the corner, this graph suggests the bull market has plenty of scope to continue trending higher for many years.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 19, 2022

Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

US and Global markets recoiled from the higher inflation/CPI data last week. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75pb on June 15. The Fed also warned that other, more aggressive rate increases might be necessary later this year. Before the Fed decision, global markets opened on Sunday, June 12, and quickly started selling downward. US Indexes sold off on Monday, June 13, by more than 2.5% almost across the board. A brief rally after the Fed decision seems to have evaporated in early trading on Thursday, June 16.

It is clear that global markets expected inflation to stay elevated but were hoping for some moderately lower data showing the recent Fed moves had already dented some inflation concerns. Now, it appears the US Fed has its backs against a wall and moved rates aggressively higher to stall inflation (and possibly destroy global asset values). From my perspective, this is unknown territory for the US Fed and Global Central banks. That means traders should expect increased volatility and the possibility of a very determined reversion of price over time.

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InvestorEducation

Sunday, June 19, 2022

Useful Things You Need To Know About Tweezer Top Candlestick Pattern / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis

By: Steve_Barker

The tweezer top candlestick pattern was popularized by Steve Nison in the West through his book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’. Tweezers have varied in appearance, but there are certain traits that they have in common. Their appearance at market-turning points makes it possible to use them for analysis purposes. At times, they specify the likelihood of a reversal. When the price direction of an asset changes, it is known as a reversal.

These candlestick charts have been used by the Japanese to trade commodities since the 17th century. They monitor the prices of commodities in an aesthetically pleasing manner.

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Housing-Market

Friday, June 17, 2022

UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continuing with the affordability theme the real terms sustainable house prices trend metric uses a souped up version of the oft mentioned average earnings X 3.5 ratio, where the X3.5 ratio has been defective since the 1980's instead the relentless trend puts the ratio currently at about 4.5X average earnings which resolves in the following trend graph.

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Companies

Friday, June 17, 2022

Why I’m buying the “new” value stocks… / Companies / Investing 2022

By: Stephen_McBride

It’s been a rough six months for tech stocks…

Amazon, Google, and Facebook are suffering their worst stock performance in years…

Some of these names have sold off so hard they’re now among the cheapest stocks on the market.

And that’s presenting a HUGE buying opportunity for you and me.

More on that in a moment…

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Companies

Friday, June 17, 2022

Optimize Benefits from R&D in Software Product Development with an R&D Tax Credit Software / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

We are transitioning into an economy that is based on knowledge and information as a consequence of the way that technology is increasingly taking over the processes of physical manufacturing. Right now, there is a continuous and growing need for R&D of software products just as when the production of physical products such as cars and building designs happened. Therefore, using an R&D Tax Credit Software to optimize tax benefits from R&D efforts is highly recommended for the purpose of ensuring that R&D efforts are optimized.

After all, we now recognize the importance that software plays even in the production of those physical items; apps based on blockchain technology, smart navigational systems, and smart power grids would never be conceivable without the relevant research that underpins them.

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Companies

Friday, June 17, 2022

Want To Save On Your Business Energy? Here Are Some Helpful Tips / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

Saving money on your business energy is easier than you think! In this blog post, we will discuss some simple ways that you can reduce your energy consumption and save money in the process. Implementing just a few of these tips can help you see significant savings on your energy bill. So what are you waiting for? Read on to learn more!

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

State of the Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stocks put in a bottom of sorts Friday, but this is NOT THE Bottom where my existing view is to expect a Dow bottom during August at an approx level at 29,600, which is pending my next in-depth analysis. So 32,200 puts the Dow about 9% away from a probable bottom that would result in a 25% peak to trough bear market so we are about 2/3rds the way through this bear market in terms of price.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Gold Market Is Getting Ready for Another Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As predicted, gold stocks are gradually declining. Their situation is unlikely to improve - the Fed is already planning another interest rate hike.

After yesterday’s huge slide in the PMs (GDXJ declined by over 8%!) and a sizable increase in our short positions in junior miners, gold and silver are moving back and forth, gathering strength for the next move. Or waiting for the next trigger.

They are likely to get it tomorrow (Wednesday, June 15), as the Fed is about to make another interest rate decision. The word got out yesterday that the Fed might hike interest rates by 0.75% instead of just 0.5%, and the markets reacted accordingly. Stocks and PMs fell, while the USD Index rallied.

The best part is that you knew about the bigger rate hike before almost everyone else – I wrote about that in the extra analysis that I posted/sent out on Saturday. Quoting:

The next interest rate decision is this Wednesday, and it’s probably going to be very interesting. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a rate hike by more than 0.5% - for example by 0.75%. This might be enough to send a message to the market that they are serious about the inflation and have positive political implications. Whether that happens or not, the following conference will likely aim to rebuild investors’ confidence in the Fed. It might or might not work with regard to confidence, but it should be enough to trigger declines in the markets (including PMs) – after all that’s how hawkish surprises work.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Dow Industrials’ Big 8-Wave Cycle is Incomplete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

"We finally understand our full Elliott wave position"

The Wave Principle's basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves, as illustrated in both bull and bear markets below:

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

7 Things You Need to Know About Finances / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Steve_Barker

If you are an adult, then you will likely be in charge of your own finances. Most people are. However, if you don’t know a lot about proper financial management, then you won’t be able to make effective and sensible decisions for yourself. Bad financial decision-making can lead to a lifetime of misery and debt. Thankfully, learning to master one’s own finances isn’t as challenging as you might think that it is. All it takes to master them is some dedication and a few helpful articles. This post is one such article, and will tell you six things that you need to know about your finances:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 13, 2022

Dow Stocks Bear Market Forecast Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.

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