Monday, July 11, 2022
“Sleeper Stocks” are Defying the Bear Market / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : You won’t hear about it in the mainstream media…
But my favorite group of “sleeper stocks” is pulling away from the broad market.
As of June 28, these sleeper stocks (green line) are up 13% over the previous seven weeks. The S&P 500 was down 2% over the same time frame:
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
House prices will be higher a year from now, 2 years from now and definitely 3 years from now, the question mark is how high?
Momentum suggests a flat lining market from late 2022 with very light upwards price pressure during early 2023 that could see house price inflation briefly fall towards zero accompanied by maybe a couple of down months before the bull market resumes going into 2024 and 2025.
Net immigration of 300k and an expected Ukrainian influx of at least 200k is going to put the UK housing market under extra strain and upwards price pressure.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
Trial Begins in Gold & Silver Manipulation Case Against J.P. Morgan Official / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of further Fed tightening continue to weigh on metals markets.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting. As CNBC reported, central bankers remain fixated on inflation.
CNBC Reporter: The minutes of the latest Fed meetings show that officials agreed that another rate hike of 50-75 basis points would likely be appropriate at its meeting later this month. Officials also acknowledge that there could be an even more restrictive stance that could be appropriate if inflation remains high. Now, the minutes show that Fed officials were worried about inflation becoming entrenched, that was debated several times in this document. Many participants viewed that as a significant risk.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
What are the benefits of doing good deeds? / Personal_Finance / Social Issues
By: Mark_Adan
There are several benefits to doing good deeds, both short-term and long-term. Short-term benefits can include feeling good about yourself, having a positive impact on others, and making a difference in the world. Long-term benefits can include developing self-confidence, gaining moral character, and developing a sense of purpose in life.
Self-confidence is one of the most commonly cited benefits of doing good deeds. When you feel good about yourself, you are more likely to feel confident in other areas of your life, including your work and relationships. Building self-confidence can be difficult, but it is definitely worth the effort.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
Does Selling Put Options During A Market Downturn Provide A Safety Net? / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In a significant market downturn, bearish sentiment, if not outright fear, can drive down the share price of good companies rather drastically. When the market is in a sustained selling mood, there can be a substantial disconnect between the long-term fundamentals and the technical price action we see on the chart.
The Temptation to Bottom Fish
What can we do when good companies are trading at what appear to be bargain prices? We could “stick our toe in the water” and buy shares. But what if we’re wrong about whether a bottom in the share price is in place? Or what if the stock takes a very long time to build a base and goes nowhere for an extended period?
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
What Needs to Happen for the Gold Stocks GDXJ to Hit New Lows? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Although the general stock market has risen, this trend may soon reverse. Since it often moves along with gold stocks, junior miners can face a fall too.
Let the S&P 500 Be a Clue
Mining stocks declined significantly this week, but they haven’t severely underperformed gold. There is a good reason for it – the general stock market moved higher recently.
What would have to happen for the mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) to decline in a more profound manner and slide well below $30 (in the GDXJ)? For example, the trend in the stock market could reverse.
Guess what – that’s exactly what’s likely to happen based on what’s going on in the S&P 500 chart.
Saturday, July 09, 2022
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England just like it's US counterpart recognises the significance of the yield curve inversions not because it has magical powers but that it tends to act as a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough people act on such as trigger as they tend to do then YES it will negatively impact on economic activity as market participants respond accordingly.
However in this respect the Bank of England has done a good smoke and mirrors job of masking the importance of yield curve inversions in the UK, which just don't carry as much weight as they do in the US. The UK yield curve has already temporarily inverted in December, but as has been the case for some time it tends to be of a con flip significance. At best UK yield curve inversions signal economic stress that we are already well aware of.
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Saturday, July 09, 2022
Central Banks QT SCAM - Bank of England Set to DELETE UK Treasury Bonds off it's Balance Sheet / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the Bank of England handed most of the interest that the UK treasury pays on the Gilts it holds back to the TREASURY
So what do you think the Bank of England is going to do as maturing bonds are removed from it's balance sheet, I will tell you whats going to happnen, they are going to subvert QT so that most of the money the treasury pays the Bank of England on mautirng bonds is going to find it's way back to Treasury in a technical excercise of deleting maturing bonds off central banks balance sheet.
The only question market is will the clueless mainstream financial press be able to cotton on to the inflationary Weimer Republic money printing scam that the Bank of England and Treasury will be perpertruating or not?
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Saturday, July 09, 2022
Euphoric US Dollar Slams Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The euphoric US dollar rocketing stratospheric to extreme multi-decade highs slammed gold this week! That vertical surge ignited heavy gold-futures selling, hammering gold into a serious technical breakdown. The resulting sentiment damage was severe, with traders now convinced gold is doomed to spiral much lower. But a major reversal is imminent in the radically-overbought dollar, which will catapult gold higher.
Gold has two primary drivers, investment demand and gold-futures speculation. Investment capital flows are much-larger and ultimately far-more-important. But because of the extreme leverage inherent in gold futures, speculators punch way above their weights in influencing gold price action. They totally dominate gold when investors are mostly missing-in-action. And the US dollar’s fortunes are their main trading cue.
Each gold-futures contract controls 100 ounces of gold, worth $180,600 entering this week. But traders are only required to maintain $7,200 cash margins in their accounts for each contract traded. That makes for maximum leverage of 25.1x, over an order of magnitude greater than the 2x legal limit in the stock markets. At 25x, each dollar traded in gold futures has 25x the gold-price impact of a dollar invested outright!
But that kind of leverage is exceedingly-risky, as a mere 4% gold move against speculators’ bets wipes out 100% of their capital risked. Always facing fast total ruin, these traders’ time horizons are forced to be ultra-short-term. They can only care what gold prices are doing in coming hours or days, even weeks are too distant. That extreme-leverage-necessitated myopia often leaves gold inversely slaved to the US dollar.
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Saturday, July 09, 2022
How to Prepare for a Hard-Hitting Stocks Bear Market (Think 1929-1932) / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This metric of bullishness is higher than it was at the top of the dot-com mania
An important step in preparing for a historic bear market is to embrace cash or cash equivalents.
This may seem obvious, but even with the stock market in a downtrend, cash is shunned by many an investor -- retail and professional. Many of these investors believe the bull market will resume -- sooner rather than later.
As the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which analyzes financial markets and major cultural trends, noted:
The percentage of assets dedicated to equities in American Association of Individual Investors members' portfolios remains near a bullish extreme. ... They think a "correction" is in force but not a bear market.
So, AAII members have been holding more stocks than cash.
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Friday, July 08, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Name of the Game / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Before I get started with my stock market analysis, here is my take on the political assasination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back yesterday by so called collegues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide.
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Friday, July 08, 2022
The Fed Is Afraid of Inflation and Tightens Its Hawkish Stance / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed gives no illusions: it will maintain its hawkish stance. Meanwhile, gold plunged decisively below $1,800, which has bearish implications.Yesterday (July 6, 2022), the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting, held in mid-June. Although the publication reveals no major surprises about US monetary policy, it shows rising worries within the Fed and also strengthens its hawkish rhetoric.
Why? First, the Committee’s members acknowledged that “the near-term inflation outlook had deteriorated since the time of the May meeting.” They also agreed that risks to inflation were skewed to the upside and that persistently high inflation could de-anchor inflation expectations:
Many participants judged that a significant risk now facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted. On this matter, participants stressed that appropriate firming of monetary policy, together with clear and effective communication, would be essential in restoring price stability.
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Friday, July 08, 2022
Commodities: Bounce or Something More? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support
It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the inflation trades in general) going from absolutely rock solid (over) bullish to bleak in the span of a month.
All of this in the wake of an entity that held out dovish as long as it could before being directed by the market to put on its hawk costume and go steroidal in its inflation fighting stance. Seriously, market participants are taking their cues from a monetary authority that itself is taking cues from the bond market’s signaling (tardy though they were on the uptake). The link above shows the 3 month T-bill yield’s directive that the Fed aggressively raise rates back back in February. There were other signals as well demanding the same.
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Friday, July 08, 2022
Crude Oil Is Caught Between Recession Fears and Supply Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices fluctuated on fears of a recession and a contraction in demand. What are the main figures to observe in this critical month?
Crude oil prices hovered between red and green on Thursday after two days of steep losses this week, still plagued by fears of a global economic recession that could threaten demand but also supply cuts in a tight market.
New Lockdown and Restrictions for the Chinese Panda
On the Asian continent, several million people may again suffer from strict restrictions because of China’s “zero-Covid policy” because of this epidemic rebound, which raises fears of the return of restrictions in Shanghai a month after the lifting of a long and grueling lockdown.
Thursday, July 07, 2022
Tory Back Stabbers Force Boris Johnson to Resign, Committing Electoral Suicide, Next PM is.... / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
They Tory lemmings finally did it, the back stabbing bastards have got rid of Borish Johnson who won them an 80 seat majority at the 2019 election, who lead the nation through an 18 month pandemic party.
The stupid, self interested back stabbing bastards have gone and committed electoral sucide.
You can tell how bad it is from the reaction of Britain's enemies, youve got european politicians literally danncing in the street!
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Thursday, July 07, 2022
Crude Oil Collapsed Below $100PPB – Has The US FED Broken Inflation? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On Tuesday, July 5th, Crude Oil collapsed very sharply, down over 10% near the lows, in an aggressive breakdown of the price. The $97.43 lows reached that day were more than -14% from recent highs (set on June 29, 2022) and more than -21% from highs set on June 14, 2022.
Consumer Discretionary Spending Likely To Fall Further
In a recent research article (published June 9, 2022: CRUDE OIL PRICE AND CONSUMER SPENDING – HOW THEY ARE RELATED), we shared a similar breakdown that took place in Crude Oil in 2009 and how tightening consumer spending often correlates with peaks in Crude Oil when crisis events happen.
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Thursday, July 07, 2022
Will Crypto Loyalty Programs Replace Traditional Loyalty Points? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
Loyalty programs are an essential part of the successful marketing strategy of any business. They are a main source-hook for retention and penetrative engagement. Lately, the crypto industry has widely been adopting these programs.
As with the growing popularity of digital assets, the common question here is:
Tuesday, July 05, 2022
The Inflation Mega-trend and UK House Prices - Housing Market Analysis Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2022
Gold Price Summer Seasonal Doldrums / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers. With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane. Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it. Long feared as the summer doldrums, they’ve actually moderated in recent years.
This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s traditional summer predicament. It describes a zone surrounding the equator in the world’s oceans. There hot air is constantly rising, spawning long-lived low-pressure areas. They are often calm, with little prevailing winds. History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway. The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.
Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink. Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on these ships long before air conditioning. Misery and boredom were extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies. Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.
Gold investors can somewhat relate. Like clockwork trudging through early summers, gold starts drifting listlessly sideways. It often can’t make significant progress no matter what trends looked like heading into June, July, and August. As the days and weeks slowly pass, sentiment deteriorates markedly. Patience is gradually exhausted, supplanted with deep frustration. Plenty of traders capitulate, abandoning ship.
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