Thursday, April 21, 2022
Global Stock Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every day seems filled with some new comment or data point that suggests the Global Market or the US Fed will aggressively attempt to burst the inflation bubble. Global central banks continue to warn that COVID, and other issues, persist. Traders seek some clarity and understanding of what’s going to happen next.
Will The US Stock Market Continue To Rally Higher?
Allow us to help you understand what is happening behind all these data points and news posts. We can understand key market components better by using specialized modeling systems that aim to distill market events into relatable trigger events within our strategies. This, in turn, helps us to better understand what may come next for the US markets.
We’ll focus on some of our Custom Indexes to better illustrate current market trends and conditions. These are examples of our Custom Smart Cash Index (a more global market custom index), our Commodity Price Index, and our Custom US Index (a focused US Custom Index).
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
FREETRADE Shares ISA and SIPP Platform Analysis - When do HMRC Contributions Land? / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FREETRADE is a mobile phone operated ISA and SIPP investing platform, here I go through some of the key aspects that prospective users may want to know on how the platform functions and costs where for me personally I got the answer to the question of when HMRC contributions land into the FreeTrade SIPP account as the sales blurb is 7 to 11 weeks, so if you have also been sat wondering about HMRC contributions then here is your answer on that and much more.
If thinking of opening an account then if you follow my link WE BOTH get a FREE SHARE, all you need to do is deposit £1! As for the value of the free share? In my experience it's going to be around £10. But you might get lucky as it is a bit of lottery i.e. maybe 1 in 100 gets a £200 share? Most £3 - £50.
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
5 Tips When Investing As A Business / Companies / SME
By: Mark_Adan
One of the most motivating for a business owner is simply seeing their business thrive beyond their imagination. Such success only comes from the likes of hard work, determination, busy weekends and mornings, and tons of late-night calls. However, these things only matter when you finally start seeing the profits rolling in.
If you're excited and you want to do something with your extras, there are many solutions. However, some forms of recreation and even personal expenses can be a very unwise decision. As such, there are smarter options that allow you to grow the profits from your hard work. So, read on as we dive into 5 investing tips for businesses.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Best Stocks and Shares ISA ISA for 2022 - FreeTrade, IG Index, II, IKBR, AJ Bell Compared / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
NUMBER CRUNCHING THE BEST STOCKS AND SHARES CASH ISA
NEW TAX YEAR NEW ISA and maybe an additional SIPP, though I have to keep in mind the lifetime LIMIT, currently at just over £1 million! ISA"s are the way to go, a no brainier for UK stock investors, continue upto 20k per person (40k per couples) annual allowance and can transfer in cash ISA's on top (which I still have too much of),
So BEFORE I opened my latest stocks and shares ISA, I did a number crunch to determine which is best, now there maybe some minor errors in this table but overall it gives a accurate picture that I used to make my decision of who to go with for 2022-23.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
If Gold Read the Tea Leaves, It Would See the Shape of a Bear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Despite increased war tensions, gold failed to break above $2,000. What’s worse, rising USDX and interest rates are already lurking on the horizon.
The precious metals just performed exactly as they were likely to. Despite the increase in war tensions, PMs and miners reversed instead of rallying, which indicated that the rally has probably run its course. Since the tensions can now (most likely) either decline or stabilize, gold and silver prices will presumably fall right away, or after a while, as the market starts paying attention to gold’s two key fundamental drivers:
- the USD Index
- the real interest rates.
Both are inversely correlated with the price of gold, and both are on the rise. It’s therefore most likely only a matter of time before gold declines, and the same goes for silver and mining stocks. In fact, silver and mining stocks are likely to fall harder than gold, as they’ve been very weak in recent years anyway. Let’s not forget that while gold moved above its 2011 highs, silver and miners are well below the 50% retracement from their respective 2011 highs.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
This Usually Spells Trouble for the Stock Market (It's Happening Now) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"Even short term, diverging trends can signal an unhealthy market"
If you've been an investor for any appreciable length of time, no doubt you've noticed that all of the stock market indexes usually move in unison.
For example, when the Dow Industrials rally, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ usually do so too -- the same applies during a broad downtrend.
As the April 8 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for key U.S. financial markets, notes:
Think of the final days of [the big down wave] in March 2009, at the end of the Dow's 54% decline from October 2007. Nearly every stock index made a low within days of March 9, 2009 -- blue chips, technology, small caps, transports, secondary stock indexes -- and all rallied in unison thereafter.
However, when stock indexes begin to diverge, this is usually a sign that the existing trend is about to reverse.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Krishen Iyer shares why modernist marketing specialists are a good idea / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Whether you like it or not, your company is going to need a marketing guy, or more fairly, a marketing person. Be warned though: it’s not always an easy sell for people who are used to doing things themselves, and/or those who try to run a tight financial ship. Krishen Iyer, the owner of MAIS Consulting, understands the reservations that some company or agency owners may have to either hire their own marketing help or hire a consultant to help with these duties.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
Latest Update - The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market, AI Stocks Buying Levels Going Into Earnings
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Rambus_Chartology
There are just a few times in ones investing career, depending how early you start and if you survive long enough, that you are witness to some extraordinary changes from the MACRO scale perspective. A few examples would be the beginning of the 1929 crash, the end of the secular bull market that was made in 2000 that began in 1974, the 1987 crash which is still the biggest one day percentage drop in stock market history of 23%. Then there was the banking and housing bubble that collapsed into the 2009 crash low which launched our current secular bull market in the stock markets which is now 13 years old.
Then there are more subtle changes in the macro world that are very rare which most investors or even economist don’t have the ability to recognize until they are well established. Eventually the change of trend is so great that one has to accept the fact and recognize it for what it is. In the beginning of a macro shift few believe it is really happening because the trend has been in place for so long that it seems normal and that is how markets work.
What I would like to show you today are several rare macro events that are going to change the world and in ways we may not understand right now, but changes are coming whether we like it or not. To think one person or a group of people can wave their magic wand and make everything the way it was before are in for a rude awakening. We are just now witnessing the birth of these macro trends that are going to be with us for many years into the future.
It is always hard in the beginning because most people don’t understand the changes and lash out to those in charge thinking they can make things right, but again that is wishful thinking. After a period of time has lapsed there will be an adjustment period and a new norm will be established. For those that understand the macro shifts will do well with their investments, but for those that are unwilling to adapt to the new environment will find it much harder and blame everyone and everything for their underperformance or outright failure.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META? / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Facebook (META) stock price has CRASHED by over 45%! Far beyond anything anyone could have imagined the stock price could trade down to. So no wonder many investors are now too frightened to hit the BUY button given the epic collapse in the stock price fearing that it could be game over for this social media giant as it places it's bets on reinventing itself as a metaverse giant. So is it a case of game over and all those who bought ont he way down now destined to lose all in a dying stock despite the stock now trading on just 15X earnings?
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Around the World's Risks and Opportunities with Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
A "smart" investor knows more than how to pick a stock. Truly smart investors look at stocks...and bonds...and cryptos...and commodities -- to understand the BIG picture.
Only then a certain wisdom emerges that helps you make truly informed, truly smart decisions.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Investor FOMO of barely a month ago on expectation of a blow off top that most clinged onto during the first few weeks of this sell off is now increasingly giving way to FEAR of an inexplicable never ending slide into the depths of a 2000 style bear market. We'll the Cathy Wood style stocks have been on that path for approaching a year now so perhaps not much downside in those, then again they still are what they were a year ago, NO EARNINGS GARBAGE!
However FEAR is infectious especially for the weak hands, those who where once eager to buy now FEAR perpetual falling prices that results in a state of paralysis. THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY FEELS LIKE TO INVEST IN A FALLING MARKET! Something that is not apparent when looking at the price charts at tops and bottoms where one could easily have bought and sold with the be benefit of hindsight, yeah we'll maybe if one switched OFF the information flow that generates the GREED and FEAR that encourages buying at the top and inaction at the bottom!
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Monday, April 18, 2022
The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?
Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.
If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?
No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.
Monday, April 18, 2022
The myth of PH’s bankruptcy and “Chinese debt slavery” / Interest-Rates / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In 2017, Forbes reported that President Duterte will force Philippines into China’s debt slavery and bankrupt the economy by 2022. The fake story was promoted heavily by international and Philippine media. The question is, why?In May 2017, Forbes released a column that claimed that “New Philippine Debt of $167 Billion Could Balloon To $452 Billion: China Will Benefit.” It was written by Anders Corr, who was portrayed as an “independent” geopolitical risk analyst.
“Over 10 years,” Corr boldly predicted, “that could balloon Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio as high as 296%, the highest in the world.” Fueled by expensive loans from China," he said, "Dutertenomics will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage.”
At the time, I argued that Corr’s prediction was idiotic and up to 240-250 percentage points off. Yet, it was quoted widely both internationally and in the Philippines.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Gold Gains In Price Only – Not In Value / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD GAINS IN PRICE ONLY
It has been said that the more things change, the more they remain the same. That is certainly true of gold prices.
Let’s look at the following three charts in succession. Then we’ll talk about them…
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Wall Street’s “green light” to get into Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Won’t governments just ban crypto?It’s one of the most common questions folks ask me.
“Regulation” has been a bogeyman for the space since bitcoin (BTC) burst onto the scene 13 years ago.
Folks have long speculated new rules will crush crypto markets.
I couldn’t disagree more.
Regulation won’t kill crypto. Instead, it will lead to much higher crypto prices, as I’ll show you today.
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Sunday, April 17, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022, AI Stocks Portfolio Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022 -
Whilst my last market brief signaled to expect a strong April to be punctuated by an imminent correction into early April before the final forecast push higher into a May high that the following chart of the S&P better visualises of what I have in mind in terms of how the trend could play out.
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Beating Inflation: Are The Fed’s Dreams Gold’s Worst Nightmare? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While investors remain happy-go-lucky, fundamental data for gold and silver is now worse than in 2021. Is this the last chance to come back to earth?
As another week comes to a close, the winds of change are blowing across the financial markets. However, while many investors and analysts can see only sunny days ahead, fundamental storm clouds should rain on their parade over the medium term, and it’s quite possible that it’s going to happen shortly.
To explain, this week culminated with the USD Index soaring above 100, the U.S. 10-Year real yield hitting a new 2022 high, and Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) hitting its highest level since the global financial crisis (GFC). However, the PMs paid no mind yet. In fact, investors across many asset classes continue to ignore the implications of these developments. So far.
Saturday, April 16, 2022
Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Okay, let’s take a breath. I don’t like to use ‘!’ in titles or even in articles. In fact, when I see too many of them I immediately think that someone really REALLY wants me to see their point. That said, the signal shown below is pretty important.
It’s in-month with a monstrously over-bearish bond sentiment backdrop similar to when we installed a red arrow on the chart below at the height of the Q1 2011 frenzy (cue the Bond King: “short the long bond!”). Chart jockeys are probably delivering the bad news of the chart’s inverted H&S, a potential for which NFTRH began managing a year ago when the 30yr yield hit our initial target of 2.5% and then recoiled as expected after the public became very concerned about inflation.
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