Tuesday, October 10, 2023
The Stock Market Got It Wrong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As we look back upon another interesting week in the market, there are a few standout matters I would like to point out.
To begin with, I saw the following quote from an interview with well-known economist Austan Goolsbee:
“The timing of the selloff has been something of a “puzzle” given there was no major change in the Fed’s latest projections.”
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
How Fast will AI Gut Hollywood? / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s only a matter of time before someone builds “HollywoodGPT.”
The S&P 500 is slightly up as I write this morning.
Fresh highs in Treasury yields have put pressure on stocks. But I’m not worried about rising rates. As I recently explained, stocks typically go up during rate-hiking cycles!
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Monday, October 09, 2023
Investing in UK Bond ETFs - -GLTL and 3GIL / Interest-Rates / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GLTL.L - £39 - UK Gilts 15+Yr
UK bonds have been obliterated, portfolios built up in bond funds over the past 10 years have been wiped out! Now you know why I have avoided bonds. Pittance in return during their bull market followed by a spectacular collapse, all whilst the lemmings encouraged stock investors to seek safety in bonds! This bond fund has COLLAPSED BY 60% off its high of £82! Imagine those who had parked the bulk of their cash in such funds by following the advice of FA's! Only discovering the catastrophe when they get their annual statements, A lot of TV's will have had remotes thrown at them! This is why there is no FREE LUNCH! It is YOUR MONEY it is upto YOU to DO THE WORK and understand what you are invested in else PAY THE PRICE of a 60% wipeout in what is supposed to be an ultra safe low volatility asset! When the exact opposite is true! If you lost similar on UK bonds then it's your fault for being LAZY! DO THE WORK!
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Monday, October 09, 2023
Why You Should Expect a Once-in-a-Lifetime Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: EWI
U.S. credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion
On a national level, a debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay back its government debt. This might result from government spending exceeding tax revenues for an extended period.
On an individual level, a crisis can result from too little income and too much debt -- that simple. This sometimes means defaulting on a car loan, for example, or even declaring bankruptcy.
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Monday, October 09, 2023
The flames of Hamas, Israel, apartheid, and Palestine / Politics / Palestine
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Israeli-Hamas War is a logical result of 50 years of failed military policies. Assertive pledges of “national security” will not achieve peace in the Middle East. That requires inclusive economic development.On Saturday, Palestinian militant groups, reportedly led by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups, launched a coordinated offensive against nearby Israeli cities, Gaza border crossings, adjacent military installations, and civilian settlements.
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr - US Equiv TLT ETF
Peaked at $523, collapsed to it's recent low of near 50% to $276, imagine all those who swallowed the financial advisors and media sales pitch to be 60% in bonds because they are 'lower risk' then stocks! This is HORRIFIC! MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RISK FOR A FRACTION OF THE RETURN OF STOCKS! HORRIFIC! Still it gives a higher volatility potential to accumulate into right now. Potential upside over 2-4 years is for $422 for a 52% on the current price!
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTM.L £135.8 - US Treasury 7-10Yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This bond fund is down 29% from it's high with potential upside target of £175 for a 27% gain over a target 2-4 years, so a lower / risk lower return component of the portfolio. I've been accumulating since £139 with limit orders ever £1 lower, as well as timed based buys.
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
Silver Bulls Are the Walking Wounded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Silver has been a major underperformer in recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields and a stronger USD Index.
With silver gunning for its 2023 lows, the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weakness has been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy a meaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better than the fundamentals at uncovering support and resistance, and our premium Gold Trading Alert has all of those details.
Sunday, October 01, 2023
UK and US Inverted Yield Curves and Bond Funds / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curves
At the late 2021 peak of the stock market the US short end yield was zero, long end (20 year) at about 2%. so the yield curve was normal. By the time of the bear market low was starting to invert, with the short end 3.5% vs long end 3.8%, fast forward to day we have the short end at 5.5%, Whilst most recent yield action has seen the short end and the long end nudge higher, hence offering an opportunity to accumulate near the bond markets lows.
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
Investing in UK and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And we arrive out our final destination, one of where doom and gloom prevails, most fear much higher BOND market interest rates! Where we have the likes of Bill Ackman literally announcing he is shorting US bonds AFTER they have fallen! Where were they a year go when that was the time to short bonds?
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
Gold Market Gyrate on U.S. Government Shutdown Theatrics / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets got hammered earlier this week as interest rates continued their relentless march higher.
The 10-year Treasury note recorded its highest yield since 2007. Meanwhile, the average conventional 30-year mortgage rate surged to 7.31% -- a level not seen since 2000.
Higher rates are putting pressure on housing and financial markets. They are also hitting consumers and small businesses. For now, though, the economy hasn’t entered into a recession – at least not officially.
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
AI Regulation - Urgent Need For A Sherman Act Mark Two / Politics / AI
By: Christopher_Quigley
It is almost certain that the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring about even greater consolidation of power among the top American tech companies. These include Amazon, Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Advanced Micro Devices, NVIDA and Intel.This development presents a great opportunity for these companies but it also presents a great threat to the very fabric of capitalism and democracy. I believe, before it is too late, it is time that the power of these tech companies be broken and thus it is time for a new Sherman Act.
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Saturday, September 30, 2023
10 Tips To Get The Best Return From Your Investment / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Mark_Adan
Every investor in financial development looks for the secret to maximizing returns. But how can one ensure their money works as hard as they do in the face of a constantly changing economic landscape? You've arrived in high income investing, where clever tactics can dramatically increase your earning potential.
Balancing risk and reward is not just about storing your money; it's about using it wisely to generate the greatest returns. In this post, we'll share 10 doable suggestions for improving your investment strategy, guaranteeing that you're not simply saving money but also significantly increasing your wealth.
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Monday, September 25, 2023
Stock Market correction full steam ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day as you get access to my latest stock market brief that was sent out to patrons Monday 25th September at 3am UK time.
Stock Market correction full steam ahead as the S&P ticks below the August low of 4340, closing Friday at 4320 thus continuing to target sub 4200 by Mid October with my pin point high probability target of 4150 now some 170 points away vs the S&P 2023 high of 4610 290 point above, thus about 60% of the correction is complete which has translated into huge price drops in target stocks from their 2023 highs such as AMD down 28%, ASML -24%, Qualcom & TSMC -23% and so on and even greater price drops in the higher risk stocks such as Roblox -46%, with even greater blood baths in the housing stocks.
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Sunday, September 24, 2023
British Pound Trend Trajectory / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YES all currencies in free fall but for the time being at least the UK is showing relative strength against the dollar (dead cat bounce), it will eventually weaken once more to fresh lows. However as the above illustrates it is all smoke and mirrors, why I don't fuss too much over the fx rate that I buy US stocks at because at the end of the day CASH IS LOSING VALUE regardless of the currency it is denominated in! So it's a bit of a fools errand to wait for sterling to rise before buying US stocks as we have witnessed during the past 9 months.
Still to eek out that extra few percent it can be prove a useful short-term exercise to have a rough idea where sterling is going, one of the check boxes to tick off in our pursuit of maximising profits.
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Sunday, September 24, 2023
Dead Ends Ahead for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the fundamental roadblocks adding up, silver confronts a bearish outlook at nearly every turn.
With the FOMC’s hawked-up SEP and Powell’s inflation focus upending several risk assets, rising real interest rates continue to weaken silver’s bull thesis. And with the Fed chief promising more of the same on Sep. 20, higher interest rates and/or a recession are both bullish for the USD Index. Powell said:
“The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability, because the record is clear on that. If you don’t restore price stability, inflation comes back and... you can have a long period where the economy is just very uncertain, and it’ll affect growth. It... can be a miserable period to have inflation come constantly coming back and the Fed coming in and having to tighten again and again.”
Sunday, September 24, 2023
Feds Seek Huge Royalties from Gold Miners in New Crackdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of inflation remaining stubbornly high, and interest rates going higher, rattled financial markets this past week.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark funds rate unchanged as expected. However, Fed chairman Jerome Powell left the door open for another hike in the near future. He also suggested rates may need to stay higher for longer than previously expected.
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Friday, September 22, 2023
The Full Employment Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today's narrative is that the Fed needs to force unemployment higher to cause demand destruction to bring inflation under control. Only one problem is that just as CPI is a FAKE inflation measure so is the Unemployment rate. They have fiddled the stats to such an extent that today's 3.6% unemployment is more like 10% for your grandfathers unemployment as shadow stats once more illustrates, Just look at the spread between REAL unemployment and fake UNEMPLIE 25% vs 3.6%! Seriously they are taking the piss, treating the masses like idiots! Unfortunately the Econofools perpetuate this LIE across MSM, so there you have it US unemployment rate is a lot closer to 25% than 3.65%
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Friday, September 22, 2023
Gold, Mining Stocks Weather Fed Interest Rates Hike Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Fed hawkishness has been the rankling thorn in gold’s side for 18 months now. Since the Fed started this monster rate-hike cycle, every material gold and gold-stock selloff has been driven by the threat of more rate hikes. Those boost the US dollar, triggering gold-futures selling. But the Fed’s hawkish spell over traders is waning. Gold and the miners weathered this week’s latest hawkish FOMC meeting pretty well.
The Federal Open Market Committee catapulted its federal-funds rate up an extreme 525 basis points off zero in just 16.3 months into late July! That blasted the FFR to a lofty 22.4-year secular high of 5.38%. And this scorching rate-hike cycle was even more violent internally, with over 4/5ths of it happening in just 9.0 months into mid-December! The Fed has never before hiked so big and fast from such low levels.
The resulting higher US yields ignited a parabolic moonshot in the US dollar. In just 6.0 months into last September, the benchmark US Dollar Index skyrocketed 16.7%! The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term price action closely watch the dollar’s fortunes for their trading cues, and do the opposite. So gold plummeted 20.9% in 6.6 months on heavy and relentless gold-futures dumping!
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Friday, September 22, 2023
5 signs & charts for Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
While the mainstream is hyper-focused on the Fed, Elliott wavers know:
It's not the Fed that's in the driver's seat.
Investor psychology is what's in charge. Just as it's always been.
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