Saturday, September 02, 2023
Why Do Traders Really Lose Money? Answer: It's Not the Market's Fault / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
And 1 FREE course on how to help you stop self-sabotaging "good enough" trade plans
I have always been a "who cares about the odds" kinda person. Meaning, if someone tells me the likelihood of succeeding at, say, learning to skateboard at 40, are low, it just makes me want to try it more. Otherwise, why would I say yes to a marriage proposal to someone I met online, who lives in a farm in rural Georgia, 3 months into us dating amidst a global pandemic?
If you believe Wall Street's statistics about the odds of success as a trader, yet still choose to speculate in the financial markets anyway, a part of you must be of that same "odds-schmods" mindset. Because according to the mainstream experts, the probability of traders losing money in the long run is between an abysmal 85% and 95%.
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Monday, August 21, 2023
How to Really Get RICH - Change the Way You THINK! / InvestorEducation / How to Guides
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 of my exclusive to patrons brain dump guide on How to REALLY Get RICH that I will seek to update and improve upon on an annual basis. The focus of Part 1 will be on changing the way you think because time and time again whenever I talk to ordinary folk it can be like I am conversing with a different species of human, I get asked questions such as Why do I need all that money, why don't I live in a mansion (a 6 bed house is more than adequate), why don't I buy a lambo or other junk, I mean stuff like gold jewelry and fancy watches to me are just junk, instead most folk obsess over junk. Clearly we are not on the same wave length and I can find it mind numbing engaging in such conversations which tends to make me want to avoid such folk in the future.Yes getting rich tends to make one arrogant, it's because people who are not rich try and give someone who is a lot richer than them advice on what they should do with their wealth because that's what they who don't have much would do, either that or they want me to be in the same debt laden sinking ship as them! This is why the rich don't mix with ordinary folk because they don't think the same way, it can be mind numbing to explain that which one takes for granted, so the starting point towards getting rich is to CHANGE THE WAY YOU THINK!
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Stocks Bull Market Phase One End Game Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
AI – Do You Want to Talk to Your Dead Relative? / Politics / Social Issues
By: Stephen_McBride
On May 11, 1997, Garry finally lost.
Garry Kasparov, the greatest chess player in history—who hadn’t lost in 15 years—was defeated by IBM’s artificial intelligence (AI) Deep Blue.
Deep Blue eked out the win, 3 ½ to 2 ½. Man and machine were roughly evenly matched.
But do you know what’s happened to AI chess bots since then?
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Gold Stock Correction Finally Hits Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The gold stock correction has been in play since GDX/HUI doubled topped in April-May
Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View
We begin this article, which updates the gold stock correction, as a platform for providing information requested by two NFTRH subscribers. Below are the recent seasonal tendencies for GDX. I’ve elected to use only the years from 2018 to current in order to keep the graph clean and to show that 2023 is shaping up per the norm in the post-pandemic era.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
An Alien Invasion Will Cause Gold Price To Soar! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you that follow my public articles likely know, I am an avid reader. And, from time to time, I will choose to read other public articles on various markets.
What truly burns my buns are articles that present market fallacies as the basis for their "analysis." And, sadly, this is all too commonly seen in the metals complex.
So, just the other day, I read an article that called for a major rally in gold primarily due to an expectation of China invading Taiwan. And, to just add a cherry on top, they noted that if that did not cause gold to rally, then it will rally due to it being a safe haven during market volatility/declines, due to inflation, due to the Fed lowering interest rates, due to central bank buying of gold, etc. In other words, they simply threw the kitchen sink of reasons as to why gold is going to rally in their eyes.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Talking Heads Predict No Recession While Shrinkflation Clips Consumers / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are extending their losing streak as the U.S. dollar pushes higher. The Dollar Index rose for a fifth straight week through Thursday's close.Although the downward momentum in metals markets has been fairly steady for over a month, the total amount of price retracement has been modest. Volatility in gold and silver markets has actually been coming down.
When volatility gets compressed, that tends to precede a big move – often in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, which has been down.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Tackling Tradition: Why Football Streaming is Dominating the Digital Arena / Politics / Health and Fitness
By: Sumeet_Manhas
In the ever-evolving landscape of sports entertainment, football streaming has emerged as a dominant force, revolutionizing the way fans engage with the game. With the advent of digital platforms and the increasing prevalence of online content consumption, traditional modes of watching football are being challenged by the convenience and accessibility of streaming services. This article delves into the reasons behind the surge in popularity of football streaming, highlighting its impact on viewership, fan engagement, and the overall sports industry.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Global Wealth Pyramid - Survival of the Richest / Politics / Social Issues
By: Richard_Mills
Inequality is one of the most volatile aspects of contemporary society, and it is getting worse. As the gap between the haves and the have-nots widens, and the middle class shrinks, the chances of social upheaval increase.
History tells us that a state’s failure to redress rampant inequality can result in bloody revolution.
In the United States and around the world, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. According to The Conversation, in every major region of the world outside Europe, extreme wealth is becoming concentrated in a handful of people.
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Monday, August 14, 2023
Stock Market FOMO Maniacs Rug Pull Imminent? US House Prices Trend Current State / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Monday, August 14, 2023
US dollar Index (DXY) Hanging Tough / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
NFTRH subscribers and I have been keeping well aware of the implications of a) USD following its daily chart downtrend, or b) painting the July plunge as a bear trap and going bullish again. We’ll leave the detailed implications aside in this post and simply note that the process is still evolving.
From this NFTRH+ video update (now public), that projected the up move on July 19:
Read full article... Read full article...USD can break through it [clear resistance at the time, now support] and test the SMA 50 and still remain in a downtrend.
Monday, August 14, 2023
U.S. Mint Bureaucrats Continue to Undermine the Once-Great American Eagle Brand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are ticking lower this week amid an ongoing summer lull in investor demand.The upshot of soft market conditions for gold and silver is favorable buying opportunities for bargain hunters. Not only are spot prices down, but so are premiums on popular bullion products available through Money Metals.
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Monday, August 14, 2023
BRICS, CBDCs, and Misdirection - with a Personal Perspective / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Andy_Sutton
The first portion of this piece, pertaining to personal experience with a political dissident is written entirely by Andy Sutton. The rest of the report is co-authored as is the case with much of the recent 'My Two Cents' work.As a young first-year graduate student in 1997, I was required to take a class called 'Banking and Monetary Policy'. As I registered, the course itself sounded rather interesting - my undergraduate work had been in the field of what is now called Molecular Biology. It was an introductory course, taught by a professor who was in exile from South Africa.
The professor (name withheld) had been involved with that country's central bank at a moderately high level and had spoken out rather loudly against Apartheid. Facing the very real threat of either prison or execution, the professor sought political asylum in several countries. By a mere twist of fate, I had the honor of sitting under some of the best teaching I've ever experienced thanks to these unfortunate circumstances, full stop.
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Saturday, August 12, 2023
Innovative Ways Companies Attract and Retain Customers in the Digital Age / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
In today's fast-paced and highly competitive digital world, companies across various sectors must continually evolve and adopt innovative strategies to attract and retain their customers. By leveraging technology, embracing new techniques, and understanding consumer behaviour, these businesses can engage diverse audiences, drive sales, and foster brand loyalty.
In this article, we will delve deeper into several unique methods employed by different industries, providing an expansive analysis of personalisation, gamification, customer support, social media marketing, content marketing, and experiential marketing, along with numerous examples demonstrating their effectiveness in real-world scenarios.
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Current State of the UK Housing Market as Stocks Climb a Wall of Worry / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market is literally climbing a wall of worry, refusing to give any opportunity for the mass of investors sat on the sidelines to jump on board the AI gravy trains unless they buy the highs! Most AI tech stocks are now very overbought i.e. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, KLAC, AVGO which had an insane spike last week to $933 that triggered one of my distant SELL limit orders at $899 (current $812).
Whilst many are very overbought that does not mean they cannot become more overbought! This is the problem with TA, the charts tells you that markets are over bought and ripe for a correction, and so one anticipates a fat juicy correction to accumulate into on buying opps perhaps down to below S&P 4000, but as I often state Technical Analysis on it;s own is a coin flip, and worse still is that which most focus on the S&P which is a RED HERRING! Put the two together and you can see how easy it is for most investors to be constantly wrong footed by a. focusing on the S&P and b. not realising that TA is not that reliable going forward, in hindsight its perfect, but going forward it's at best 55/45. One has to go beyond the charts and crunch the numbers and understand the fundamentals that differ for every stock.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Global Copper market is entering an age of extremely large deficits / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Simply put, the road to reaching net zero begins and ends with copper. All infrastructure built to support renewable energy uses large amounts of copper, as the metal is a highly efficient conductor of electricity and heat.
To keep the energy transition going, millions of feet of copper wiring will be required for strengthening the world’s power grids, and hundreds of thousands of tonnes more are needed to build wind and solar farms. An offshore wind turbine, for example, contains 8 tonnes of copper per megawatt of generation capacity.
Electric vehicles, now a fast-rising source of demand, use over twice as much copper as gasoline-powered cars, which contain about 30 kg. Not to mention, there is more than 180 kg of copper in the average home, reminding us just how indispensable the metal really is.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Can The Stock Market Now Head To New All-Time Highs? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, I questioned whether a crash can still set up for much later this year? And, the answer is, "of course." This week, I question the opposite - that is, can we still get to the all-time high? And, the answer is also "of course."
Now, I have probably confused most of you reading the opening paragraph. But, I will explain my point below, and I do not need to utilize Talmudic logic to provide the explanation.
But, before I provide my explanation, I want to again address a few fallacies that I read this past week.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Will UK House Prices Crash 2023? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
First a reminder of some of the primary drivers for UK house prices (in order of importance).
1. Population Growth
2. Inflation courtesy of money printing.
3. Growing economy.
4. Insufficient new housing construction.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Flashing Red Lights in the Chernobyl Control Room / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AI Stocks Flashing Red Lights in the Chernobyl Control Room (3 or more).
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Beneficiaries of US Dollar Weakness / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Richard_Mills
On July 9 the US dollar index (DXY) slipped under 100 for the first time since April 3, 2022, with cooling US inflation data released on July 12 maintaining the trend of a weaker greenback against a basket of other trade partner currencies.
As of July 14, the dollar was down nearly 13% from last year’s two-decade high and was its lowest level in 15 months. According to Reuters, the softer-than-expected inflation print supports views that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its interest rate-hiking cycle.
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