Friday, December 01, 2023
Gold Shines as the Economic Outlook Darkens / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While looser monetary policy may seem bullish in the short term, the medium-term ramifications could upend the yellow metal.
Recession Pessimism Ahead
The ‘bad news is good news’ trade continues to dominate the financial markets, as weaker economic data is perceived as bullish for risk assets. In a nutshell: if the Fed pivots and ends QT, all of investors’ problems will disappear. However, while the narrative has helped gold, an ominous economic backdrop should result in much lower prices in the months ahead.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You got access to my latest stock market brief that are usually only exclusively made available to patrons.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver just shot up, and given what the stock market is doing, it makes perfect sense.
Namely, it’s most likely the final part of the rally in them both, and the same is the case for gold and mining stocks.
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has certainly been an interesting year or so since we struck the low in October of 2022. If you remember, most were looking for the market to head considerably lower at the time. But, then again, what else is new? Most expect the market to continue linearly in whatever trend is in place at any point in time.
Yet, we were strongly suggesting that most investors begin to look upward, as we maintained that the market would rally to the 4300+ region from the 3500 region lows we expected before we bottomed. In fact, I was even outlining to members that the potential was in place to rally as high as 4505SPX off the 3500SPX region, even before we bottomed. And, amazingly, the market even exceeded my expectations by 100 points.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Taiwan 2024 Election: Militarization or Development / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
Taiwan's elections loom just a few weeks away. Continued militarization would undermine past economic success. Taiwan is at its ultimate crossroads.
Taiwan’s presidential elections will be held on January 13, 2024. Re-elected in 2020, the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen cannot seek a third term.
Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been a divisive force that has benefited from President Obama’s pivot to Asia, Trump’s efforts at effective normalization and Biden’s attempt to capitalize on the consequent tensions to contain China’s economic rise regionally and globally.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making)
NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Cameco Uranium Stock Hits All-Time High / Commodities / Uranium
By: The_Energy_Report
Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) — the godfather of the uranium trade — has moved to all-time highs, with the spot price hitting US$80.00/lb.
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Sunday, November 26, 2023
TSLA, LRCX, TSMC Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TSLA $255 AMC - EGF -15% / 2% PE 64, 9% Range
The EV Hype Master with a market cap greater than all other motor corps put together is primed to take a big plunge on earnings which could mark a trend that takes Tesla below $200. There just isn't the growth to justify a PE of 64. Compare ASML's metrics to that of TESLA, half the valuation for far higher growth which is because of TSLA hype. So Tesla should break it's August low to target sub $200, and could go as low as $175.
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Sunday, November 26, 2023
A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
Hi,
Gold has long been seen as the refuge for investors who are concerned about economic downturns and inflation. And it's tempting to attribute the metal's price movements to factors like supply and demand, the dollar and interest rates.
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Sunday, November 26, 2023
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks have mostly ground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector really out of favor again. Yet both the metal and its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of the year. From late October to late February, gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage. Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold’s bullish seasonals should prove potent tailwinds ahead.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Sunday, November 26, 2023
Elections in South America and Europe Reveal Backlash against Socialism / Politics / Social Issues
By: MoneyMetals
As markets reopen following the Thanksgiving holiday, investors are feeling thankful that interest rates are no longer rising.
Stocks, bonds, and precious metals have all gained ground in recent days as long-term rates have come down. Meanwhile, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark short-term rate in 2024 have risen.
Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting were released on Tuesday. They revealed policymakers intend to keep rates “restrictive” at current levels until inflation comes down further.
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Thursday, November 23, 2023
LMT, JNJ and ASML Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LMT $441 BMO - EGF -3% / -1% PE 15.9, -21% Range.
LMT is enjoying a price boost courtesy of the latest Middle East war that reversed an earlier downtrend that was targeting $370. Despite all of the wars earnings are not growing, so based on the fundamentals the stock should trade lower, i.e. target $370, but there is war fever inflating the stock price as the market discounts escalation to some degree, though nothing to suggest a major expansion in the conflict is imminent..
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Thursday, November 23, 2023
When AI Hallucinates - Top AI Tech Stocks / Companies / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
1. Turns out, AI isn’t a fraud.
The AI “App Store” wasn’t the only recent big announcement from OpenAI.
It also revealed GPT-4 Turbo, which is ChatGPT on steroids. The AI chatbot can now analyze more than 300 pages of text in one go. It also seamlessly switches between images, text, and speech.
I was once skeptical about AI. I’m always skeptical about tech that sounds amazing but that no one actually uses. That was the state of AI for a long, long time. As recently as last year, Nvidia (NVDA) was the only company making real money from AI.
Thursday, November 23, 2023
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 entered yesterday‘s session on a corrective note, but similarly to recovering from Barkin‘s hawkish message, it did the same following FOMC minutes. Not even NVDA earnings volatility could take the ES below 4,535 – clients‘ long gains whether in swing or intraday publications, are growing – and the result really comes down to when you enter and how you work with risk along the way. Crucial question to ask – are these the circumstances favoring outsized bets, or not?
It boils down to what you think about the bond market – are we see another 10y yield rising episode?
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Are you ready to rumble! Lets see of earnings season volatility can deliver some more buying opps in target stocks over the next couple of weeks.
Where the S&P is concerned the expectation for an early October bottom at just below 4200 was freakily ac hived in terms of price and time and as my market brief illustrated going into October.
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Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022
Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.
Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value.
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Tuesday, November 21, 2023
Learn to Use the FORCE! - How to Really Get Rich / Personal_Finance / Financial Education
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is where it all begins - NO PAIN NO GAIN! And I promise you there WILL be plenty of PAIN, it IS NECESSARY in ones the journey to becoming rich, it's only how you will really learn. Life is meant to be a struggle, to be painful, miserable even, it's not meant to be full of comfort, warm and fuzzy, it's discomfort that is the fuel that drives change, builds physical and mental toughness, we are all born as wide eyed babies, you have to embrace the pain that will toughen you up, life WILL punch in the face, which is good because that's what's needed, a good punch in the face that you will remember for the rest of your life, that will drive change in ways you cannot imagine as you work your butts off to become rich. I am not going to sugar coat anything, there is NO magic step by step blueprint to follow to get rich, the world is too dynamic and always changing for that. All of these so called get rich quick guides and courses are basically a con! As if it is going to be THAT easy! Getting rich is a not a a few hours, days, weeks or even months of work, getting rich is a function of the way you will live the rest of your life! Where I will do my best to ram home my experience of what I have learned to date, thoughts, ideas and tools for you to utilise to get you started on your OWN path towards getting rich because without wealth your life is going to be pretty crap, a never ending struggle which is why most end up swallowing the cool aide of waiting to live the life they dream of living AFTER they have died!
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Biden Bizarrely Brags About Lower Budget Deficits as US Federal Debt Skyrockets / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
The more things change in Washington, the more they stay the same.
Under the new leadership of House Speaker Mike Johnson, Congress passed a stopgap funding bill on Tuesday to once again avert a government shutdown. It was quickly approved by the Senate on Wednesday, then signed into law by President Joe Biden.
Like the last one, this latest bipartisan budget scheme includes no spending cuts. So once again, deficit hawks are left feeling betrayed – not to mention alarmed at the country’s worsening fiscal trajectory.
Saturday, November 18, 2023
Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Caught between conflicting forces, will pivot optimism outweigh the economic malaise that should unfold in the months ahead?
A Short-Lived Rally?
From war premiums to pivot hopes, silver sees sunny skies, as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm , as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm. However, the excitement is misguided, as silver often declines precipitously when recessions arrive. And with an economic downturn poised to bite in 2024, the white metal’s recent rally could be short-lived.For example, the University of Michigan released its Index of Consumer Sentiment on Nov. 10. Director Joanne Hsu said:
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