Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Proposed Tax Reforms Face Enormous Headwinds / Politics / Taxes

By: John_Mauldin

Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management produce a must-read quarterly letter I’ve featured multiple times in my weekly newsletter, Outside the Box (subscribe here for free).

This piece on tax reform is one of the most important pieces they’ve written in a long time.

Lacy and Van establish that proposed tax reforms will face enormous headwinds that were not there during previous tax-reform eras. This means that the benefits that Republicans think will accrue are likely to take longer to appear… and be less than expected. And that means it will take more than what is proposed right now to jump-start the economy.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Americans Will Pay For Trump’s “America First” Plan / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian says the American consumer will pay for Trump’s “America First” plan.

In a recent video interview with Mauldin Economics, Jared Dillian notes that Trump’s new “America First” trade policy is anti-free trade. Plus, given the Republican Party has been the champion of free trade for decades, Trump’s new trade policy does not sit well with many in the party.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Stock Market is Playing Pied Piper / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is approaching its next Cyclical hourly interval at 64.5 hours. I went back to see what I may have missed and the obvious item is the Wave relationship where Wave 5 seeks equality with the length of Wave 1. That occurs at 2332.13. The match does not have to be exact. A near miss or a slight overshoot can happen.

The Cycle Top support is now at 2313.50. That may be used as an advance warning of a probable trend change.

Monday, February 13, 2017

BBC Inside Out Tesco Rip off Offers - Determined to Lose Big Spend Customers! / ConsumerWatch / Tesco

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At 7.30pm tonight the BBC's Inside Out programme will be broadcasting (also available on iplayer) of how Tesco customers are being ripped off as shelf advertised offers fail to convert at the checkouts due to the promotions having ended days, weeks or even months earlier! For instance 'buy 1 get 1 free', at the checkout can result in customers paying double the expected price in most of Tesco stores, as the BBC investigation showed 30 out of 50 stores tested demonstrating the issue of advertising promotions that do not convert at the checkout tills!

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is the UK An Economy Built on Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Submissions

Monday, February 13, 2017

Stock Market VIX Cycles set to Explode in March/April 2017 – Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Previously, I authored a “Part 1” of this article regarding my analysis of the VIX cycles.  I sincerely hope my readers enjoyed the analysis and I hope it opened up a few questions regarding the potential moves in the US and global markets.  Today, we will delve deeper into the concept of the VIX cycle patterns that I’ve identified and use common technical analysis concepts to attempt to identify price target levels as well as support and resistance that may become important in the immediate future.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Reinventing the Global Economy Is the Only Way Out / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

As I’ve written previously, central bankers received a lot of criticism over the last year or two as the global economy has stubbornly refused to recover from the Great Recession at anywhere near the rate of past post-recession growth cycles.

Economics has come under fire along with other “establishment” institutions that are perceived as uncaring and out of touch. The criticism grew more intense—and more effective in the past year as Brexit and then the Trump victory occurred.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is the Gold Silver Ratio Predictive? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

Gold Silver Ratio

One aspect of the precious metals market today that I like is the Gold Silver Ratio.  It appears to have topped, right along with the 2016 gold bottom, and for all gold bull followers out there this is certainly a welcomed development.  Precious metals bear markets always hit silver hard, while bull markets always see Silver outperform gold.  As a result, the Gold Silver Ratio rises during bear markets and then falls during bull markets.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Stocks At Record Highs - Will Uptrend Accelerate? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, February 13, 2017

US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is This The Top Commodity Play For 2017? / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

The sweetest spot in the Lithium rush is now definitively Chile: It’s the world’s biggest venue, and it’s about to explode as Tesla flips the switch on its battery gigafactory, Chinese-Korean investors prepare to drop $2 billion on a new Chilean gigafactory, and the government has a change of heart that has lithium at its core.

Against this backdrop, we’re not just looking at the new ‘Who’s Who’ of lithium. We’re beyond that. Now we’re looking at who’s going to advance to new production first, with the highest grades of low-cost lithium.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Tesco Crisis - BBC Investigation Reveals Customers Being Short Changed Due to Staff Cuts / ConsumerWatch / Tesco

By: Nadeem_Walayat

BBC Insight programme to be broadcast tonight at 7.30pm will reveal that Tesco customers are being short changed by promotions that have expired but are still being advertised on the shelves thus when customers for instance 'buy 1 get 1 free', instead end up paying double the expected price in most Tesco stores. As a Tesco shopper I have long since been aware of this issue which is why I always check the date that the offer replies to. Though this tends to be in small print so can be difficult to see with ageing eyesight. Also I have witnessed the SAME phenomena whilst shopping at Morrisons and Asda, though not on the same scale of Tesco. Still it does require the dates of every offer to be checked.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Trump a New Jacksonian Era? / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!" - Andrew Jackson

Monday, February 13, 2017

Lindsay Stock Market 12-year Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

As often noted, the first step in a Lindsay forecast is determining the long-term intervals; 15yr (15yr-15yr, 11mo) for highs and 12yr (12yr, 2mo-12yr, 8mo) for lows. Counting a 12yr interval from point B of Lindsay's Long Cycle on 3/7/05 forecasts a significant low in the period May-November 2017. However, the 1/3/17 Market Update laid out a forecast for a significant high (using both a 15yr interval and Basic Movements) in the period April-August 2017. And to further confuse things, a Three Peaks/Domed House pattern - combined with a Hybrid Lindsay forecast - seem to be pointing to a high within hours of now. How do we reconcile all of this?

Monday, February 13, 2017

Stock Market at High Tide / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.

SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to the 2300 level has been reached. A reversal should now occur.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, February 13, 2017

KitKat 100% Easy to Win Personalised Prize Packs Promotion! / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

Here an update of KitKat's current promotion that allows buyers of the multi-packs to enter a code and win a personalised four fingered pack. I was skeptical at first but it looks like I have won 10 out of 10 entries! Find out what it's all about in my latest video to make sure you don't miss out on what looks like being a 100% winnable promotion! Yes the prize may not have much face value i.e. a four finger kitkat bar, but having your own factory printed photo wrapper makes all the difference in terms of sentimental value. So if you already buy kitkat's then what do you have to lose ? Nothing! and NO I don't work for kitkat! It's just that after Walkers Crisps Spell & Go con it is a refreshing change to have a promo that actually allows normal people, apparently everyone who enters to win!

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Trump Not Pro-Russia, Says Its Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman / Politics / Russia

By: Stephen_Lendman

Profiles in courage are absent in Washington, especially on geopolitical issues, notably on relations with Russia.

In January, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Trump is not pro-Russia. She distinguished between Russophobe Hillary Clinton and Trump’s more responsible comments, calling getting along with Russia a good thing.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Gold Bull Market Surprises / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Savage

In a bull market surprises come to the upside and it’s never advisable to lose one’s core position. This rally isn’t going to top until sentiment gets excessively bullish. Right now sentiment is dead neutral and it will take 5-10 more weeks before sentiment reaches 75% or higher.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Channel 4 War on 'Fake News' Ends - The New News Age / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Channel 4 is ending its week long war on 'fake news'. Whilst I watched the 'fake news' sections on Channel 4 News. However I found their mocumentaries mind numbingly stupid! All that time and effort, all that programming and they missed the OBVIOUS! in that its mostly ALL FAKE NEWS, it always has been since even before the first printing presses started running, and the proper name for alt 'fake news' is CONSPIRACY THEORY! There have ALWAYS BEEN conspiracy theories of this that or the other as labeled by the establishment media of the time that tends to persist for decades until when a conspiracy theory may be proven to true! Though I prefer 'most probable' over the word 'truth', because it is all propaganda spun by the elite of the day where the stories periodically go through revisions as required.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Plenty Kitchen Towels 432 Prizes to Be Easily Won in New Promo With Tesco / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

Plenty kitchen towels are running a new promotion running in conjunction with Tesco. No it's not the Trolls, that ended in December. In this promo you can relatively easily win 1 of 432 prizes that include PS4's, I-pads, Fit-bits, £100 tesco vouchers and more. Find out what its all about and how to win some great prizes in my video. Also note that the weekly promo that ends on the 7th of March with a late entries draw to be held on 31st March, so don't waste time! You have 4 weeks to win!