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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.

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Commodities

Friday, November 19, 2021

Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in their sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have been powering higher recently.  They’ve blasted to several major breakouts after getting bombed out during gold-futures speculators’ taper tantrum on Fed-tightening fears last summer.  These smaller gold miners just finished their Q3’21 earnings season, revealing whether their fundamentals support more big stock-price gains ahead.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by their production rates.  Small juniors mine less than 300k ounces of gold annually, medium mid-tiers have outputs running from 300k to 1m, large majors yield over 1m, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2m.  Mid-tiers offer a unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, considerable output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains.

Mid-tiers are much-less-risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors.  Ironically the leading mid-tier gold-stock benchmark is the misleadingly-named GDXJ Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.  It has evolved to be dominated by mid-tiers yielding quarterly outputs of 75k to 250k ounces.  True juniors now only account for a smaller fraction of the weighting in this second-most-popular gold-stock ETF.

Just over a third the size of its big-brother GDX major-gold-miners ETF, GDXJ has certainly had a wild ride this year.  Showing mid-tiers’ huge potential, GDXJ skyrocketed 188.9% in a massive upleg over just 4.8 months into early August 2020!  The extreme greed and overboughtness that spawned necessitated a normal and healthy major correction to rebalance sentiment, so the mid-tiers fell 32.0% into late March 2021.

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Economics

Friday, November 19, 2021

Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In this analysis I explain why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.

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Commodities

Friday, November 19, 2021

Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears?

In a classic Monty Python sketch, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.

In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.

But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Some indicators are making records"

It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.

For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.

Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.

Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:

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Politics

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak / Politics / China

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Chinese people do NOT eat DOGS as part of pseudo religious superstition to ward off Summer heat and the practice is NOT widespread, because eating ones pet looks very bad to outside eyes therefore the CCP dictates Newspeak that Chinese people do NOT eat dogs even though there is annual an annual dog eating festival and Dog meat shops are widespread across China situated in every city and town.

Therefore that is the GOOD FACT that is spewed out from docile chinese mouth pieces across the media from mainstream to youtube to tiktok a case of "Don't be stupid, Chinese people DO NOT EAT DOGS!" When the reality to this Newspeak fiction is that Chinese people actually DO EAT DOGS! But the nature of the crime against Dogs i.e. the manner of their deaths is such that it basically just does NOT happen!

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Politics

Thursday, November 18, 2021

CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! / Politics / Nuclear Power

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest cunning plan out of the China Clown Party (CCP) was to ORDER Evergrande to NOT default on it's bonds, finish the properties yet to be completed for customers, and make good on all those who invested in their wealth management programmes! Problem Solved! Just order the dying company to basically NOT Die. The Fed had the 2008 bailout all wrong, they should have just ordered the banks not to go Bust! It looks like Xi Ping has been drinking too much of his I am an immortal genius cool aid!

This speaks volumes about the lack of competency at the heart of the Chinese government (CCP). I strongly suspect a day of reckoning is fast approaching for China with it's ghost cities, crumbling infrastructure, collapsing bridges and buildings and dams that's are prone to bursting that are not even 30 years old!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:

  • Bonds were trading lower
  • Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
  • Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
  • and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs

All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.

COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.

Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, November 18, 2021

How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Building or upgrading your computer can be scary, but with some research and some guidance you can do it easily! In this series of videos I walk you through how install an AMD AM4 based processor, The Ryzen 5 5600x into the Gigabyte AORUS Elite AX V2 B550 ATX motherboard which supports the AM4 socket Ryzen CPUs. And in this video I show you how to power on your motherboard to make sure it works before you install it into your case so that you know the components work before you commence work on an installation.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bitcoin peaked in March 2021 at $65k and then fell to a low of $29k Mid June. Whilst my in-depth look at crypto's of Mid June based on preceding bull and bear markets concluded that BTC could trade down to under $20k, for a drop of at least 70% off the peak that failed to materialise. Which means none of my string of buy limits from $26k down to $16k were triggered and thus I hold no bitcoin.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, November 18, 2021

FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs / Personal_Finance / ISA's

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Open an account with FREE TRADE, fund it with just £1 and you get a FREE SHARE worth between £3 and £200! Woooaaah! Apple? AMD? IBM? Nvidia? Microsoft even? If not what about Intel?

Not just that but you can also get a SECOND free trade if you go on and open their stocks and shares ISA! The value of which is dependant upon how much you transfer or deposit, check out the full details in the video and so you too can get 2 free shares! But you MUST sign up with a referral link https://magic.freetrade.io/join/nadeem/4c9ba1da , downloading the app directly won't get you anything!

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.

They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.

Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.

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Companies

Thursday, November 18, 2021

The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse / Companies / Metaverse

By: Submissions

By Justin Spittler - Imagine if McDonald’s (MCD) started selling cars…

Or Netflix (NFLX) got out of the movie business to deliver burritos…

Or Walmart (WMT) said it was developing a new cancer drug…

To many investors, Facebook’s (FB) big pivot is just as big a head-scratcher.

As you’ve probably heard by now, the social media giant announced it’s becoming a metaverse company.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead?

I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years?

A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate.

B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy.

C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy.

D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Silver vs US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One would expect an inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Silver. The below chart shows periods when the dollar has been falling (USD Index) in RED and rising in blue, during which time there does tend to be a tendency for Silver price to exhibit an inverse relationship to varying degree.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Silver Supply and Demand Balance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So if Silver is closer to being an industrial commodity then a precious metal then one should look at supply and industrial demand for Silver for signs and portents of what the price may do.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.

AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.

Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?

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Economics

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: MoneyMetals

President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.

He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”

That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.

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