Saturday, April 11, 2020

US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Update - Video / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My forecast as of 22nd of March is for the US to trend towards 531,000 tested as infected by the end of April coupled with 26,550 deaths, for a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 5%, as it was hoped that valuable time would not be squandered on political bickering during this escalating national emergency, where every day counts.

Friday, April 10, 2020

Gold and Understanding the Current Investment Reality / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Gold has been misunderstood and ignored by retail investors, financial advisors and pension managers as a critical portfolio asset during normal market conditions.  However, during periods of market stress, such as we are experiencing now, gold becomes a safe haven asset that will mitigate losses in the portfolio. For a number of years, many experts have been warning about overinflated markets that were just waiting for a spark to ignite the entire system. 

I warned investors that we were in a triple bubble in stocks, bonds and real estate that was created by central bank policies. Although I concluded that a market crash was inevitable, I didn’t foresee that the spark to ignite all three bubbles would be the Coronavirus. While the virus itself is life threatening and will result in large demographic changes across the globe, the economic implications may be worse than the disease. Major economies in Europe, Canada and the United States have been shut down. Every industry—airlines, hotels, manufacturing, entertainment, sports, schools and retail—is in lockdown.  Most of the western world is ravaged by fear, isolation, loss of employment, loss of income and the psychological effect of this massive lockdown situation. Employees have either been terminated or laid off indefinitely. The scale of this unemployment crunch and financial crisis is beyond the reach of governments’ assistance. Many businesses will not be able to reopen once the health issues have been controlled.

Friday, April 10, 2020

See a Stock Price Gap? Learn to Capitalize on Them / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Hi,

In volatile markets especially, you often see price gaps -- those blank spaces on a chart where the prices jumped so fast, they left a gap behind.

Did you know there are 4 types of price gaps -- and you can use each type to your advantage?

Friday, April 10, 2020

A Rare Bottoming Pattern on the HUI Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Back at the 2008 crash low in the HUI there was a reversal pattern, that is pretty rare, which helped confirm that very important low. If you ever wondered what the 2007 – 2008 top looked like and the decline that followed to the 2008 crash low this daily chart for the HUI paints the Chartology I posted at the tent, in real time, as the impulse move to the downside took place.

The 2007 – 2008 H&S top was actually a double H&S top which ended the first 8 years of the bull market that began in 2000. Even though that is a beautiful H&S top no one wanted to believe it could be possible when I first began to post the possibility of what the implications were. At the time I viewed the H&S top as a normal H&S reversal pattern but I had no idea it would lead to the crash it did. Even during the crash of that magnitude the Chartology was about as good as it can get.

Friday, April 10, 2020

Here Comes Another $2T Support for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In anticipation of the previous $2T stimulus package that passed on Mar 27 and in its aftermath, stocks rallied, yet it wasn’t a one-way road. They had trouble overcoming the pre-stimulus highs, and actually sold off in the following week.

Today’s Fed announcement contained a $2.3T loan package to support the economy. While stocks didn’t sell off in its immediate aftermath, they haven’t rallied profoundly in the runup to further stimulus either.

High-yield corporate debt (HYG) predictably rallied in response to the real economy support with loans, but the bulls are having issues adding to their opening gains. That’s a shooting star, a bearish candle.

Friday, April 10, 2020

Expectations For Higher Gold Prices – Fly In The Ointment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

From Wikipedia: “In English, the phrase fly in the ointment is an idiomatic expression for a drawback, especially one that was not at first apparent, e.g.

     We had a cookstove, beans, and plates; the fly in the ointment was the lack of a can opener.” 

For four centuries, ‘a fly in the ointment’ has meant a small defect that spoils something valuable or is a source of annoyance. The modern version thus suggests that something unpleasant may come or has come to light in a proposition or condition that is almost too pleasing; that there is something wrong hidden, unexpected somewhere.”

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Redefining Political Economy, Globalization & Business Models Consequent on Corona Virus Pandemics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

Corona Virus Pandemics, spread across the world, necessitates the redefining of Economics & Political Economy, Globalization, Business, Enterprises, Business Models, Education and Technology associated with Business, especially Information Technology. All our concepts of the Economy, Development, Business Enterprises, Globalization, Education, Healthcare, Science and Technology have become meaningless along with the wisdom of the great masters, including Nobel Laureates overnight. UN, World Bank, IMF and WEF have been struggling hard to find a justification for their very identity, existence and relevance./p>

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Plus500 Rreview / Companies / Reviews

By: Submissions

Introduction

Plus500 is one of the leading brokers that offer a wide range of financial markets with low spreads, no commission but with extensive services. Known for its reliability and efficiency, many brokers from around the world use Plus500 to execute their trades and make profits. With subsidiaries regulated in many jurisdictions, Plus500 ensures that your assets are safeguarded and protected. Being the first broker to introduce a Bitcoin CFD in 2013, it boasts of its access to a comprehensive product line, including options, WTFs, stock indexes, forex, equities, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).

The percentage arrived at by dividing the country’s total GDP by its total debt indicates the country’s ability to pay back its loans. The higher the percentage, the higher the risk of a country being unable to pay the interest on its debt, and therefore defaulting on its debt. (countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios typically have trouble paying off debts. Because they are a higher risk to paying loans back, creditors demand higher interest rates. If a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio becomes too extravagant, creditors may stop lending to it altogether)

While debt defaults are rare, they can and do happen. In 2010 the European Union faced a crisis when Greece threatened to default, potentially causing a domino effect, of highly leveraged nations like Spain and Italy doing the same, which likely would have destroyed the European Union. 

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

With his portfolio "solidly anchored" in silver and gold, sector expert Michael Ballanger opines on how bankers and politicians can manipulate markets.

As a child, I used to get quite excited at the prospect of having my English "Gran" read me the Hans Christian Andersen book "The Emperor's New Clothes." I found the tale fiendishly amusing, as the charlatan tailor uses lethal doses of flattery and mystery to beguile the poor sovereign into really believing that he is wearing the finest robes ever woven. There is even greater irony in the crowds he passes during a parade as they "Oooh" and "Awww" at his comic preening, knowing full well that he is making a fool of himself but too fearful to do anything but play along. The ending is sublime, with the ultimate moment of reckoning coming "from the mouths of babes," in the form of a young lad who finally blows the whistle with the innocent but true acknowledgement that, indeed, the emperor was parading pitifully through the town square clad only in his knickers.

I think that I admired and, in fact, envied the scallywag tailor in a manner not dissimilar to the way I am awed by this recent bevy of bankers and politicians. They stand in front of the cameras with their carnival barker bravado and serpentine smiles as they lift trillions of dollars from the future wallets of the taxpaying public and distribute it shamelessly among their capitalist cronies.

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Going to School in Lockdown Britain, Dobcroft Sheffield / Personal_Finance / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Here's what it's like to gcoo to school during Britain's coronavirus lockdown that is now entering it's 3rd week, as 5 year old Eliza walks to her infants Dobcroft school in Sheffield, definitely not as busy as the usual school runs used to be, coupled with Covid-19 notices on the gates, a check list to only admit the children of key workers, is a youtuber a key person?

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Amazon Face Masks to Protect Against Covid-19 Viral Particles N95, FPP2, PM2.5, for Kids and Adults / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness

By: HGR

Our governments are negligent, the World Health Organisation is negligent, Why? Because they repeatedly stated that face masks don't make much difference in avoiding covid-19 when the OPPOSITE IS TRUE! Of course they lied because a. They wanted people to get infected so as to foster herd immunity. and b. The imbeciles had not planned for any of this. and so there weren't enough face masks to go around for healthcare workers let alone if the general public also started buying what little stock remains.

And then we have the idiots recommending DIY cloth masks that at best will offer a 10% protection.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price).  Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders.  The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.

For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias.  A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

All Is Not Well in the Gold Paper Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) officials have loudly proclaimed there are plenty of gold bars in LBMA and COMEX vaults to meet surging demand from buyers.

Unfortunately for them, confidence is particularly fragile these days and cracks are starting to appear. 

Which is why anxious officials there issued not one, but two memos last week in an attempt to reassure traders.

It’s interesting the LBMA, along with the COMEX, felt a need to put out back to back statements. If inventories are plentiful, both exchanges should be busy delivering gold, on time and without delay. The best way to build confidence is simply to meet buyers’ expectations.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Market Predictions And The Business Implications / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Current State

At times it can be difficult not to be swept along with the NHS wave that has gripped Britain, the clapping and cheering, and stories of Nightingale hospitals coming on stream with thousands of beds. But the same dynamics are at work here, i.e. a high percentage of people on ventilators eventually dying and a surge in the number of patients, so one should take media stories focused on the 15,000 or so of extra beds across Britain's Nightingale hospitals with a pinch of salt, as likely they will not turn out to be anywhere near as effective as people believe them to be should they end up in a Nightingale hospital. So more a publicity stunt than building effective extra capacity.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

BBC Newsnight Focuses on Tory Leadership Whilst Boris Johnson Fights for his Life! / Politics / UK Politics

By: N_Walayat

At a time of unprecedented national emergency, with thousands dieing each week and our Prime Minister fighting for his life, what does BBC Newsnight focus on? Potential divisions within the Tory party and its leadership! So watch the following that was broadcast a few hours ago on the 7th of April and make your own minds up if BBC Newsnight crossed the line or not!

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

The Big Short Guides us to What is Next for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: readtheticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch , Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  

In the movie 'The Big Short' some market players got ahead of the crowd and shorted the US housing market.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Gold and the dollar certainly move not in a random relation to each other. The strength and direction of one taking the cue from the other changes over time, but what does it tell us about the present moment?

The key point with regard to the US currency is that it appears to have already ended its pullback and is now ready to soar well above its previous 2020 high.

How do we know that the pullback is most likely over?

Because the USD Index already rallied for (actually more than) two consecutive trading days.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

The Post CoronaVirus New Normal / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

I don’t think anyone believes we will go to back to anything like January 2020 normalcy anytime soon. We have no idea, even if restaurants and everything open, what shopping patterns will look like.

Are we learning to live on less in our isolation? Seeing your 401(k) become a 201(k) may postpone a car-buying decision or two.

My daughter (see below) works for a cheerleading gymnastics company. Nationwide this is a multi-hundred-million-dollar industry. Will they just open back up and expect all the girls go back on day one? Will their parents be able to afford it? We’re talking many tens of thousands of jobs. Personal trainers? Many jobs will be under pressure.