Thursday, January 24, 2019
If China Falls, so Will America / Economics / China US Conflict
By: John_Mauldin
The US and China are the world’s largest and second-largest economies.
They are also entwined in so many ways that it’s hard to tell where one ends and the other starts. Some call it “Chimerica.” which is an apt description.
But that’s not bad.
International trade promotes peace and prosperity for all. It’s not always smooth, evenly distributed, or free of issues. But such is the nature of great affairs.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
These Are the 3 Biggest Market Risks in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
A Federal Reserve policy mistake is our top risk this year.
Correction: The mistake is already happening. So that’s less a forecast and more a recognition of reality.
The Fed is raising rates and reversing its quantitative easing. At the same time! They should be doing one or the other, not both.
The media and investors focus on the rates. But as you’ll learn, the global balance sheet reduction may be even more harmful.
If Jerome Powell doesn’t realize this in early 2019—or the rest of the FOMC disagrees with him—2019 could get rocky, and very quickly.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
This Rally Is a Symptom of a Stocks Bear Market, Not a Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
BY ROBERT ROSS : “Did you see that the stock market had its best day ever today?”
That’s a quote from my mother.
It was the night of December 26. Earlier that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had surged over 1000 points.
Some people saw this as a sign that investor confidence had returned.
But big surges like this are common during bear markets. In fact, they happen more in bear markets than bull markets.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
If the Recent Sell-Off Spurred You to Buy Gold, You Have to Read This / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: John_Mauldin
BY ROBERT ROSS :
Gold has done well during the latest sell-off in the markets.
But it’s not surprising. Gold has always been seen as a safe haven. When the markets tumble, investors flock into this asset.
In the global financial crisis, the S&P 500 plunged 55.6% between October 2007 and March 2009:
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Trade Small, Win Often: The Dick Diamond Method of Trading for a Living / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
We know -- and you know -- how frustrating it can be to find a reliable trading method.
Yet, somehow, 5% of all traders DO make money trading. What's their secret?
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have an answer.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
KitKat Instant Holiday Win! "Make a Break for it" Promotion 2019 / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
This is a heads up on a NEW KitKat promotion that's just started, one where 10 holidays are up for grabs worth £8,000 each which can be instantly won by finding a golden ticket inside a packet. Additionally upto 100 getaway goodies can be won EVERY DAY by entering the codes found on the inside of wrappers. Watch the video for the full details of this likely not to miss promotion.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
SelfTrade.co.uk Hits Shares ISA Investors with Quarterly Custody Fees / Personal_Finance / Investing 2019
By: N_Walayat
It's just got that bit harder for small stock investing customers of Selftrade.co.uk to make money investing.
Customers of Selftrade.co.uk who don't trade at least twice in a quarter (since April 2018) are being hit with a quarterly balance eroding custody fee of at least £17.99. Which might not sound like much but for small retail investors who tend to be invested in ISA's for the long-run its going to amount to a sizeable drain on their ISA accounts of at least £72 per year. And the charges would be even higher for those who hold SIPPS with Selftrade.co.uk
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
Sheffield B17 Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 / Local / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
2019 marks the 75th anniversary of the crash of a US B17 Flying Fortress bomber in Endcliffe Park, Sheffield on the 22nd of February 1944 costing the lives of the 10 member crew of the "Mi Amigo". In commemoration of which a fly past is planned to take place on the 22nd of February 2019 (weather permitting) that will include an F15 fighter jet from RAF Lakenheath, other aircraft to include Ospreys, Typhoons and a Dakota. Whilst an official time for the fly past has yet to be announced, early indications are that it will take place at around 9am.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
BrExit War: Why REMAIN Would Win a 2nd EU Referrendum / Politics / BrExit
By: N_Walayat
Last week Britain's inept Prime Minister Theresa May who has stubbornly refused to do the right thing by resigning further lost what little power she had left by means of two House of Common Votes, first on her EU Exit deal on which Parliament delivered a humiliating defeat on Tuesday, losing by 230 votes (432 to 202) the largest defeat of a Government in Parliamentary history which was then followed with Wednesday's vote of confidence in her Government that only just managed to survive with the aid of 10 DUP MP's resulting in 325 to 306.
It should not come as much surprise that Parliament rejected May's deal which was nothing other than complete GARBAGE, one that gives the EU £39 billion for NOTHING in return! And then there is the 'backstop' or more accurately the 'backstab', a means by which to ensure that the UK can NEVER LEAVE the EU without the EU's permission!
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
The Power of Gold Diversification / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
As a member of the British parliament in 1999, Sir Peter Tapsell, who passed away this past August, argued vigorously to keep the government from selling off over half of the country’s gold reserves. Previously, in the 1980s, Tapsell had managed a gold bullion fund, “valued at many hundreds of millions of dollars for the Sultan of Brunei, Sir Omar Saifuddin” – at the time one of the single largest private gold hoards on Earth. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. shale patch has skyrocketed by roughly 60 percent over the past two years. That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow.
The backlog of DUCs has continued to swell, essentially uninterrupted, for more than two years. The total number of DUCs hit 8,723 in November 2018, up 287 from a month earlier. That figure is also up sharply from the 5,271 from the same month in 2016, a 60 percent increase. The EIA will release new monthly DUC data on January 22, which will detail figures for December.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Recession Signals - Daylight, Nighttime, And Cycles Of Risks And Opportunities / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Numerous warning signals of a coming recession have appeared recently, and there have been rapid changes in bond prices, stock prices and Federal Reserve policies.
Yet, the stock market indexes are rising again, and the economic and financial fundamentals remain strong in many ways. Are the widespread fears of recession overblown?
In the search for answers, this analysis explores 164 years of economic history, and the 34 previous "night and day" iterations of recession and expansion. By studying the average expansion and recession, many insights can be gained in terms of what economies look like shortly before recession, and whether history shows that the current robust economic statistics are in fact a reliable argument against another recession starting within the next 1-2 years.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Or Will There be 1 More Year like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the S&P 500 at its 50% retracement, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. The bigger question is what happens next after the pullback/retest. Will there be 1 final leg in the bull market, like 1999? Or is the bull market already over?
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Will the Markets Explode One Last Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Look… the crash of a lifetime ahead is inevitable.But, it’s looking increasingly like we’ll see a last-hurrah short boom of a lifetime first. Something I like to call the Dark Window because it’s unexpected and most miss it.
Will you?
I hope not.
I hope you’ll be ready for it because, today I’m going to give you a few insights into what to watch for…
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Will the Nasdaq Hit 10,000 This Year? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Harry_Dent
Who would have thought I would be forecasting that the Nasdaq could zoom to 10,000 this year?Two things have changed my perspective in recent months: The Q4 2018 crash didn’t approach the typical 40% loss in the first two to three months, as was typical of most major bubbles… and my newer 90-Year Bubble Buster Cycle.
That 90-year Cycle is a “double variation’ of my proven 45-Year Innovation Cycle. It has marked the greatest bubble peaks and “resets” since the Industrial Revolution (1837 to 1842 and 1929 to 1932).
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Seiko Automatic Watches: The Watches for Financial Traders / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
For those in the financial markets, a watch is more than just a device for keeping time. It is a sign of prestige, a representation of who you are, and a fashion statement. This is why many top traders invest in Audemars Piguet and the Patek Philippe watches.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
One Thing to Do in This Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Rodney_Johnson
It’s time to get to work.We’ve learned a thing or two since early October…
When oil is low, it can go lower.
President Trump remains unpredictable.
The Fed can be wrong. And it can hurt stocks.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The US Interest Rate Hawks Surrender / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
They say that there are no atheists in fox holes. Recently it has also become clear there are no monetary hawks in bear markets.
For much of the last decade many conservative market analysts have decried our reliance on monetary stimulus to prop up the economy and the stock market. But in the final months of 2018, in the face of the worst stock market declines in a decade, many of these supposedly pragmatic figures quickly abandoned their convictions. As the markets briefly crossed into bear territory, monetary hawks joined with the doves and President Trump in issuing a full-throated call for the Fed to cancel their planned rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. It appears as if the Fed got the message. Almost overnight, the tone from the Fed softened considerably, causing Wall Street to sound the "all clear."
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
UK 10 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
Borrowers weighing up their mortgage options at the start of the year may find that the typically favoured two and five-year fixed mortgage rates are low compared to recent years. However, amid heightened concern about future Bank of England base rate rises, many could be seeking even further security with their monthly payments.
The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk reveals that now could be the time to consider longer-term fixed deals, as the average 10-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased significantly over the past five years, dropping 1.56% to stand at 3.05% today. Not only this but the availability of longer-term fixed mortgages has increased to stand at nearly 10 times what it was in January 2014.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks. Will Gold Benefit? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Thousands of political, business and cultural leaders are heading now towards Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum. On the eve of the world’s biggest annual gathering of the rich and powerful, the International Monetary Fund released its newest world economic outlook. What are the forecasts – and their implications for the gold market?
Global Expansion Weakens
Well, the title of the IMF’s update is telling: “A Weakening Global Expansion”. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent this year, 0.2 percentage point below last October’s projections and estimated performance in 2018. The revisions carry over from softer economic momentum in the second half of 2018, in particular in Germany, due to the problems of the automotive industry, and in Italy, due to the worries about sovereign and financial risks. Moreover, the experts acknowledge now the weakened financial sentiment and project deeper contraction in Turkey than previously anticipated.
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